Saratoga Race Course Free Play + Pick 6 Tickets – August 17

Each Saturday from Saratoga Race Course, I will post a free play of the day, along with suggested Pick 6 tickets.

Saratoga Race Course Free Play for Saturday, August 17

SAR 1 (Clm-20k, 5.5T) #3 DISSENSION (4-1) overcame trouble to beat similar course/distance rivals July 28 and Gary Gullo is good (25%) with his recent claiming winners attempting a repeat. #6 Ideal Place (3-1) won her Maiden Claiming turf sprint bow before fading to last vs. state bred stakes sprinters on the lawn second time out. Chas Brown excels with 46-90 day layoff runners and she reunites with winning pilot Javier Castellano. #8 Tapit to Me (8-1) has fired Trifecta shots in 5 of 7 turf starts at 7.5f or shorter including her last three outings. THE PLAYS: #3 to win, Exacta Box 3-6, Trifecta 3-6/ALL/8

I am offering full card analysis from Saratoga Race Course each Saturday on my Today’s Racing Digest Handicapper page. I also posted my August 10 analysis from Saratoga at the bottom of this post, along with full card highlights.

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Saratoga Race Course Pick 6 Tickets for Saturday, August 17

Check out my Saturday (August 17) Saratoga full card analysis (available now) at TodaysRacingDigest.com. For bonus free pick (SAR 12th race), click view sample.

Upcoming full cards:
Saratoga Race Course (Sat. August 17) – available now!

Saratoga Saturdays (Aug. 24, 31)
Belmont Park: Jockey Club Gold Cup Day (Saturday, Sept. 28)
Keeneland: Fall Stars Saturday (Saturday, October 5)
Breeders’ Cup from Santa Anita (Friday, Nov. 1 & Sat., Nov. 2)

Saratoga full card analysis for Saturday (8-10-13)
By Jarrod Horak (horseracingnation.com, pick6blog.com)
Weather: Mostly Sunny. High 80.  Best Bets (races 5, 9, 11)

Highlights:

SAR 3 Where’s Danny ($6.60)
SAR 4 Neat Package ($13.80)
Double (races 3-4, $46)
SAR 6 In Trouble ($17.20), Exacta ($49.40)
SAR 9 Summer of Fun (best bet #2, $5.50)
Double (races 9-10, $8.10)
SAR 11 North Star Boy (best bet #3, $10.80), Exacta ($31.60)
Double (races 10-11, $17.60)
Pick 3 (9-11, $46.60)

SAR 1 (Alw-1x, 7f) #1 MAKE YOUR MOVE (6-1) appears best in these longer sprints. He turns back after a failed G2 Dwyer run and won at this distance May 30. I like the rider switch to Lezcano and a ground saving tactical trip is expected. #2 Tug of War (6-1) is a 2-time local winner now under the care of Penna. The returnee is firing local training track bullets for this. #3 Ithastobegeorge (2-1) rallied to finish 2^nd from post 11 in a fast race at this course/distance July 19. I like his running style versatility and Castellano strings along for low profile trainer Morley. THE PLAYS: #1 to win, Exacta 1/2-3, Exacta 2-3/1

SAR 2 (OC-62.5k/2x, 6f) #5 EXPRESSION (3-1) hails from the profitable C. Baker barn and she has fired Trifecta shots in 10 of 11 starts at this trip. #3 Greed and Fear (5-2) was nabbed out of her last by claiming artist Maker and Rosario hops aboard the fresh, versatile threat. She landed the place in her lone local try. THE PLAYS: #5 to win, Quinella 3-5  

SAR 3 (Clm-20k, 6f) #6 WHERE’S DANNY (3-1) fired in both U.S. starts for Kenneally and graduated in his first dirt try under today’s pilot Rosario at 5.5f (off the turf) here July 24. He will try to get involved late and could easily be this good. #5 The Sixties (2-1) cruised off the Maker claim at Churchill June 27 and he is back at his $20k claimed price today. THE PLAYS: #6 to win, Exacta Box 5-6

SAR 4 (MSW, 8.5T) #1 NEAT PACKAGE (5-1) looks interesting from the hedge for Sheppard. The daughter of Big Brown handled turf at Tampa Bay second time out and Rosario ends up here. She sports two local turf moves and should offer value. #2 Can’t Catch Kate (3-1) rallied in her turf route bow and attended the pace before fading as the favorite at 9f second time out. She is probably best as a late runner and Brown excels with 90+ day layoff runners. #3 Weave (8-1) debuts in a turf route for Motion and dam has tossed three grass winners. The daughter of Arch is bred to run all day and is firing Fair Hill bullets for this. THE PLAYS: #1 to win, Quinella 1/2-3

SAR 5 (Clm-35k, 8f inner turf) #6 LOGAN STREET (9-2) split two next out winners at Belmont May 18 and has been freshened by profitable turf trainer Lisa Lewis. He graduated at this distance earlier this year and should be finishing under Solis. #1 Flowing Mane (7-2) was nabbed out of his last by claiming artist Maker and barn $$ rider Rosario takes the call. He exits back-to-back solid turf efforts and figures in the hunt throughout from the hedge. #4 Smoke Town (6-1) exits a place finish over the local weeds and climbs above his $20k claimed price. Linda Rice excels 2^nd off the claim and blinkers off. THE PLAYS #6 to win, Exacta 6/1-4, Exacta 1-4/6

SAR 6 (MSW, 5.5f) #7 IN TROUBLE (8-1) is a $120k purchase for quality trainer Tony Dutrow and sire Tiz Wonderful is 22% with first time starters. #5 Sound of Freedom (2-1) is a $365k son of War Front and he could easily hit the ground running for the recently hot Johnny V/Pletcher team. His Aug. 4 gate drill at 4f here looks solid. #6 Mosler (4-1) is a million dollar War Front baby with a local gate bullet and Rosario in the irons. Mott usually gives his horses a race. THE PLAYS: #7 to win, Exacta 7/5-6, Exacta 5-6/7

SAR 7 (OC-14k/1x, 7f) #7 SOUL HOUSE (7-5) could have cleared this level as my top with a better trip here July 20. Castellano knows him now and profitable trainer Weaver can pick up another Saratoga win with this late runner. #5 Ambassador Bridge (3-1) hails from a cold barn but ran well at this trip last time, attracts Rosario, and has won here before. He won two straight earlier this year and might be returning to that form. THE PLAYS: Exacta Box 7-5, Trifecta 7/ALL/5

SAR 8 (Alw-1x, 8f inner turf) #2 VALID (5-1) tries turf for McLaughlin and Saez is 2-for-6 with this outfit recently. Barn excels first time lasix. #3 Ghost Hunter (5-1) is now under the care of Mott and flashed talent on dirt and synthetic earlier this year. #5 Abraham (3-1) dons the hood, reunites with winning pilot Johnny V, and owns decent enough turf breeding. He owns running style versatility and figures right there if he handles the weeds. #7 Leadem in Ken (5-2) showed marked improvement when switched to turf at Churchill in June for Maker. The fresh 3yo colt sports a local bullet for this and Castellano hops aboard. THE PLAYS: #2 to win, Exacta Box 2-3, Exacta 2-3/5-7

SAR 9 (Autie Mame, 8.5T) #8 SUMMER OF FUN (7-2) is fresh and dangerous for sharp trainer Weaver. The classy filly always fires on firm turf and graduated over the local weeds. #9 Barbie Wire (6-1) exits back-to-back wins under today’s pilot Castellano. She handles turf/dirt and Chad Brown excels with this type of layoff runner. #4 Bella Castani (8-1) got the wrong pace setup at 7f vs. this kind July 7. Lezcano rides her well and today’s added real estate won’t hurt. #2 Praia (4-1) always fires on turf for McPeek and she packs a nice late kick. THE PLAYS: #8 to win, Exacta 8/2-4-9, Exacta 2-4-9/8

SAR 10 (G2 Fourstardave, 8f inner turf) #7 LEA (5-1) is 3-for-4 with a close 2^nd on firm turf and 0-for-2 on less than firm. He gave Wise Dan a scare in the Firecracker and Rosario is 2-for-2 with him (Saratoga inner turf). I like his outside draw and he could be sitting on a top effort 3^rd off the shelf. Stall is on a roll here. #1 Wise Dan (3-5) is a classy win machine for LoPresti. Johnny V rides him well and reached deep inside his bag of tricks to get the job done in the Firecracker last out. He won this last year and is an obvious threat again but his 2013 numbers suggest that he is not as good this season.  THE PLAYS: #7 to win, Exacta 7-1

SAR 11 (OC-35k, 8.5T) #4 NORTH STAR BOY (5-1) earned a strong Late Pace Rating and just missed in his U.S. bow at Belmont June 15. He hails from a profitable, low profile outfit and Castellano takes the call. #8 Adirondack Dancer (5-2) exits a romping Belmont turf win and the runner-up returned to score. Linda Rice is struggling here. #7 Third Knight (6-1) may have bounced last time. Dam has tossed three turf winners and he could rebound 3^rd off the shelf. #6 Unbridled Logic (12-1) landed the place in both turf starts and Rosario ends up here. THE PLAYS: #4 to win, Exacta 4/6-7-8, Exacta 6-7-8/4

Double/Pick 3/Pick 4 contenders – in order of preference

Race

1   (1-2-3)
2   (5-3)
3   (6-5)
4   (1-2-3)
5   (6-1-4)
6   (7-5-6)
7   (7-5)
8   (2-3-5-7)
9   (8-9-4-2)
10 (7-1)
11 (4-8-7-6)

Del Mar 2013 Video Series – Week 4 Recap + Week 5 Preview

The 2013 Del Mar thoroughbred season got underway on Wednesday, July 17. In the video series below, I look back at the 2012 leading riders, trainers, and the track profile. Each week, I also take a look at current track bias trends, hot jockey-trainer teams, key races, and horses to watch for 2013.

Each week, I will recap the racing week that was at Del Mar, and preview the upcoming week.

As always, I will be posting daily free Del Mar Pick 6 selections and tickets:

For daily insight on Del Mar’s Pick 6 races, check out Pick 6blog.HorseRacingNation. com
for free selections and tickets.

 

Saratoga Race Course Free Play + Pick 6 Tickets – August 10

I am offering full card analysis from Saratoga Race Course each Saturday on my Today’s Racing Digest Handicapper page. For the August 10 program, I have posted a free play below, along with suggested Pick 6 tickets.

I also posted my August 3 full card from Saratoga at the bottom of this post.

Check out my Saturday (August 10) Saratoga full card analysis (available now) at TodaysRacingDigest.com. For bonus free pick (SAR 11th race), click view sample. P6 spread tickets included with Saratoga analysis.

Upcoming full cards:
Saratoga Race Course (Sat. August 10) – available now!
Saratoga Saturdays (Aug. 17, 24, 31)

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Saratoga Race Course Free Play for Saturday, August 10

SAR 2 (OC-62.5k/2x, 6f) #5 EXPRESSION (3-1) hails from the profitable C. Baker barn and she has fired Trifecta shots in 10 of 11 starts at this trip. #3 Greed and Fear (5-2) was nabbed out of her last by claiming artist Maker and Rosario hops aboard the fresh, versatile threat. She landed the place in her lone local try. THE PLAYS: #5 to win, Quinella 3-5  

Saratoga Race Course Pick 6 Tickets for Saturday, August 10

Saratoga full card analysis for Saturday (8-3-13)
By Jarrod Horak (horseracingnation.com, pick6blog.com)
Weather: Partly Cloudy. High 80.  Best Bets (races 4, 6, 8)

Highlights:

SAR 1 Slan Abhaile ($8.10), Exacta w/Gombey Dancer ($41.60)
SAR 3 Diamond Maker ($3.50)
Daily Double (race 3-4, $19.60)
SAR 7 Dunkin Bend ($4.30)
SAR 8 Tetradrachm (best bet #3, $6.70), Exacta w/Set the Sail ($20.80)
Daily Double (race 7-8, $12.40)
Pick 3 (6-8, $81)
SAR 11 Wild Grace/White Crane/Desert Bliss TRIFECTA ($1,061)
SAR 12 Trainingfgorsuccess/St Sincere/Fiddlers Chico TRIFECTA ($108)

SAR 1 (Alw-2L, 6.5f) #4 SLAN ABHAILE (7-2) caught good turf/muddy dirt in his last pair. Rosario sticks and the Romans runner appears best on a fast track. He sports a solid local drill for this and owns fine early-pressing speed. #1 Googleado (2-1) has lost all four U.S. starts including 6^th place finish here July 19. Today’s shorter trip helps and he’s an inside pace player. #6 Gombey Dancer (4-1) may not have cared for wet footing last time. He moves to the Tony Dutrow barn and ran well in his local debut last summer. THE PLAYS: #4 to win, Exacta 4/1-6, Exacta 1-6/4

SAR 2 (MSW, 6f) #5 TIZ FOR TAT (5-2) was clearly second best to John Shirreffs speedster Mentor Cane as my top at Belmont Park off a layoff July 6. #7 Mr. O’Leary (3-1) finished a solid 3^rd in his full field bow at Belmont and the winner came back to score again. The $160k Keeneland sales grad is an outside pace player under Joel Rosario. #4 Arriving (10-1) is out of decent debut sire Harlan’s Holiday and dam has tossed six winners from as many starters. Al Stall Jr. can strike with a first time starter. THE PLAYS: #5 to win, Quinella 5/4-7

SAR 3 (Mcl-20k, 7f) #1 NODEBTDANNY (2-1) has caught wet tracks and less than firm turf in 4 of her 6 career starts. She was beaten a neck in her local fast track sprint bow and the 1-2 finishers from her last both came back to score. #1a Diamond Maker (2-1) exits an off the turf place finish vs. this kind at Belmont and adds strength to the entry. #7 High Inflation (7-2) turns back and switches surfaces. The 10-time loser handles dirt and looms a wire job threat in a race that came up light on pace. THE PLAYS: #1 to win, Exacta Box 1-7

SAR 4 (Clm-20k, 8.5f inner turf) #2 FORMULAFORSUCCESS (4-1) was farther back than usual and rallied for 3^rd in a fast-paced turf route June 2, and the place finisher came back to score. Rosario knows him now and Maker saddled three winners here yesterday. #8 Quantity (7-2) drops to a new low for the recently hot Castellano/Brown team. #3 Sam’s Buck (12-1) scored twice here last year and Weaver is sending out local live wires. THE PLAYS: #2 to win, Quinella 2/3-8

SAR 5 (MSW, 8.5T) #7 DONE SMOKING (4-1) raced wide from an outer post and finished 4^th in her turf sprint bow June 30. She is bred to route on the female side (Green Dancer) and dam has tossed two turf winners. Christophe Clement excels first route and Jose Lezcano is a sharp grass rider. #1 Raven Rise (5-1) finished a close-up, wide 4^th from an outer post in her first try on turf July 7. She will break from the hedge today and should be all set for her best in her third start off the shelf. #6 Chrissy Girl and #3 Eddy’s Time (7-2) finished 2-3 in the same race Raven Rise exits. THE PLAYS: #7 to win, Exacta Box 1-7, Exacta 1-7/3-6   

SAR 6 (OC-20k/1x, 8.5f inner turf) #4 ARCHER HILL (6-1) won his debut over the local weeds and has not scored in five starts since. He dons the hood after a respectable show finish at Belmont July 3 and should offer value for profitable turf trainer Lisa Lewis. #12 With Exultation (5-1) gets pace to chase and will try to get involved late under Rocco. #2 Sunlover (8-1) looks better sprinting but gets Rosario and can improve 2^nd off the shelf. #6 Gimme Credit (7-2) is a 10yo veteran with five Exacta finishes from ten local turf tries. THE PLAYS: #4 to win, Exacta Box 4-12, Exacta 4-12/2-6  

SAR 7 (MSW, 6f) #3 DUNKIN BEND (5-2) should win this for sharp second time out trainer Steve Asmussen. He dueled and was second best in his Churchill Downs debut and show finisher Base Case Scenario came back to score here. #4 King Cyrus (3-1) is a $70k son of Bellamy Road debuting for Pletcher. AE #9 Chisholm (2-1) is also trained by Pletcher, and he is a $400k purchase. THE PLAYS: #3 to win, Exacta 3/4-9

SAR 8 (OC-100k/3x, 8.5f inner turf) #4 TETRADRACHM (3-1) is now under the care of Bill Mott. He has fired Exacta shots in 6 of his last 7 and Johnny V is a profitable 3-for-12 with this outfit recently. I like his running style versatility. #1 Set the Sail (7-2) hails from the profitable LoPresti barn. He captured 2 of his last 3 and was less than a length behind my top last November. #6 Joes Blazing Aaron (5-1) has a shot to wire these under Rosario. #7 Admiral Perry (4-1) has landed the place in 3 of his last 4. Shug is enjoying success here and Lezcano is a sharp turf rider. THE PLAYS: #4 to win, Exacta 4/1-6-7, Exacta 1-6-7/4

SAR 9 (De La Rose, 8f inner turf) #2 SWEET LITTLE LION (6-1) loves this distance and Bill Mott has her now. The early-pressing type gets the services of Joel Rosario. #3 Laugh Out Loud (5-2) gets serious class relief after testing the big girls in the G1 Just a Game. The overseas transplant gets treated with lasix for new trainer Chad Brown. #6 Ruthenia (3-1) has been 1-2-3 in 10 of 16 turf starts. Lezcano clicks with Clement and she should be finishing. THE PLAYS: #2 to win, Exacta Box 2-3, Trifecta 2-3/2-3-6/2-3-6 

SAR 10 (G1 Whitney, 9f) #6 ALPHA (10-1) is 3-for-3 at Saratoga and fired a local bullet July 27. He is probably getting close to returning to top form after spending the winter in Dubai and Joel Rosario ends up here. #1 Successful Dan (12-1) threw in a rare clunker in the G1 Stephen Foster. He was a classy gem of consistency prior to his last and is reportedly training well for this. Leparoux has options with the versatile sort. #5 Ron the Greek (6-1) gets pace to chase in the paper race and was 2^nd to Fort Larned in the 2012 Whitney. #3 Fort Larned (7-5) was sensational in G1 Foster and is back on top of his game. He smartly won this last year and could sit a similar stalking trip with the likes of #4 Cross Traffic (7-2) in the lineup. The latter has speed and raw talent for Pletcher but has yet to race beyond a one turn mile. #2 Mucho Macho Man (6-1) can hang with these on his best day but has not been his usual stellar self in two outings this year. #8 Fast Falcon (15-1) remains eligible for an entry level spot but has enough talent to land a minor award. #7 Csaba (20-1) is a Grade 3 type. THE PLAYS: #6 to win, Trifecta 1-5-6/1-3-5-6/1-3-5-6, Trifecta 3/ALL/6

SAR 11 (Alw-1x, 5.5T) #1 MY UPTOWN GAL (5-1) missed by a nose in a similar local turf sprint off a layoff July 19. She enjoys sprinting on turf and new pilot Luis Saez excels with early-pressing types. #11 Wild Grace (3-1) graduated in a turf sprint at Belmont for Chad Brown last time. She projects an outside stalking trip for quality connections and could easily make it two straight. #4 Desert Bliss (8-1) is not big on winning but can chug along for a share for profitable layoff trainer Englehart. She attracts fine turf rider Lezcano and has finished 2-3 in 9 of 17 grass races. THE PLAYS: #1 to win, Trifecta 1-11/ALL/4

SAR 12 (Mcl-25k, 8f inner turf) #2 ST. SINCERE (3-1) makes his first start in 11+ months for recently hot trainer George Weaver. Dam has tossed three turf winners and he will probably flash speed under Rocco. #6 Trainingforsuccess (8-1) is back in for a tag and just missed vs. this kind at Belmont under today’s pilot Lezcano June 16. #3 Summer Shiner (5-2) has never raced this low for Linda Rice and barn $$ rider Cornelio V hops aboard. #9 Ryvit (6-1) and #5 Shortcoming (10-1) finished 2-3 here July 21 and #8 Fiddlers Chico (9-2) has been 2-3 in 3 of last 4 turf starts. THE PLAYS: #2 to win, Trifecta 2-6/2-3-6/2-3-5-6-8-9

Double/Pick 3/Pick 4 contenders – in order of preference

Race

1   (4-1-6)
2   (5-7-4)
3   (1-7)
4   (2-8-3)
5   (7-6-6-3)
6   (4-12-2-6)
7   (3-4-9)
8   (4-1-6-7)
9   (2-3-6)
10 (6-1-5-3)
11 (1-11-4)
12 (2-6-3-9-5-8)

Del Mar 2013 Video Series – Week 3 Recap + Week 4 Preview

The 2013 Del Mar thoroughbred season got underway on Wednesday, July 17. In the video series below, I look back at the 2012 leading riders, trainers, and the track profile. I also take a look at current track bias trends, hot jockey-trainer teams, key races, and horses to watch for 2013.

Each week, I will recap the racing week that was at Del Mar, and preview the upcoming week.

As always, I will be posting daily free Del Mar Pick 6 selections and tickets:

For daily insight on Del Mar’s Pick 6 races, check out Pick 6blog.HorseRacingNation. com
for free selections and tickets.

Saratoga Race Course Free Play + Pick 6 Tickets – August 3

I am offering full card analysis from Saratoga Race Course each Saturday on my Today’s Racing Digest Handicapper page. For the August 3 program, I have posted a free play below, along with suggested Pick 6 tickets.

I also posted my July 27 full card from Saratoga at the bottom of this post.

Check out my Saturday (August 3) Saratoga full card analysis (available now) at TodaysRacingDigest.com. For bonus free pick (SAR 12th race), click view sample. P6 spread tickets included with Saratoga analysis.

Upcoming full cards:
Saratoga Race Course (Sat. August 3) – available now!
Saratoga Saturdays (Aug. 10, 17, 24, 31)

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Saratoga Race Course Free Play for Saturday, August 3

SAR 2 (MSW, 6f) #5 TIZ FOR TAT (5-2) was clearly second best to John Shirreffs speedster Mentor Cane as my top at Belmont Park off a layoff July 6. #7 Mr. O’Leary (3-1) finished a solid 3^rd in his full field bow at Belmont and the winner came back to score again. The $160k Keeneland sales grad is an outside pace player under Joel Rosario. #4 Arriving (10-1) is out of decent debut sire Harlan’s Holiday and dam has tossed six winners from as many starters. Al Stall Jr. can strike with a first time starter. THE PLAYS: #5 to win, Quinella 5/4-7

Saratoga Race Course Pick 6 Tickets for Saturday, August 3

Saratoga full card analysis for Saturday (7-27-13)
By Jarrod Horak (horseracingnation.com, pick6blog.com)
Weather: Mostly Sunny. High 86.  Best Bets (races 4, 7, 8, 9)
Highlights:

SAR 3 Twang ($4.50)
Daily Double (race 2-3, $14.40)
Pick 3 (race 1-2-3, $29.60)
Daily Double (race 3-4, $18.80)
Pick 3 (2-3-4, $65)

SAR 1 (OC-25k, 9f) #5 TUVIA’S FORCE (8-1) won at this course/distance under today’s rider Napravnik off a similar layoff last summer. #11 Au Moon (8-1) has won his last three main track outings. I like his running style versatility and Bridgmohan rides him well. #3 Point Taken (5-1) enters in decent form and projects a nice tactical trip for the productive Alvarado/Jacobson team. #2 Caixa Electronica (8-5) had to work harder than expected in a flat mile tally at Belmont Park June 28. The 8yo horse probably won’t sneak away early this time and the price figures to be wrong. #1 Metaurus (15-1) enjoys minor awards and can spice up the exotics. THE PLAYS: #5 to win, Trifecta 5-11/3-5-11/1-2-3-5-11  

SAR 2 (MSW, 8.5T) #8 DIVORCE PARTY (6-1) is a $160k purchase by Broken Vow and dam has thrown a turf winner. Motion’s baby sports a trio of Fair Hill bullets for this and Johnny V takes the call. #2 Base Case Scenario (3-1) grabbed show dough in his dirt sprint bow. His promising young sire Pioneerof The Nile is responsible for a turf winner and dam has tossed a grass winner. Stall excels first turf. #1 Indigo Kitten (5-2) is by 17% first turf sire Kitten’s Joy and dam has tossed three turf winners. #1a Bobby’s Kitten (5-2) is also a Kitten’s Joy first timer and dam has thrown a turf winner. THE PLAYS: #8 to win, Quinella 8/1-2

SAR 3 (MSW, 6f) #3 TWANG (3-1) finished 3^rd in his CD debut June 21 and the place finisher came back to score. Rosario is 1-for-1 with Stall. #6 Sky Drama (5-2) finished 2^nd in his CD bow June 28 and the show finisher was a next out winner. #5 Bay of Biscay (9-5) is a $750k Pletcher first time starter by Giant’s Causeway, and dam has tossed five winners. THE PLAYS: #3 to win, Exacta 3/5-6, Exacta 5-6/3

SAR 4 (MSW, 9.5T) #1 SUPREME COMMANDER (7-2) finished 4^th in his 8f bow at Belmont. He dons the hood for sharp first turf trainer Shirreffs and dam has tossed two turf winners. #2 Parnelli (5-1) goes 3^rd off the shelf and McLaughlin excels first lasix. #6 Unitarian (5-2) beat Parnelli June 22. He adds blinkers and also makes his third start off a layoff. THE PLAYS: #1 to win, Quinella 1/2-6  

SAR 5 (G1 Prioress, 6f) #7 KAUAI KATIE (1-1) should be these at low odds. She is 6-for-6 at seven panels or less and the early-pressing type is tactically drawn in the outside post. She is 2-for-2 at this course/distance and Johnny V has booted her home twice. #4 Lighthouse Bay (12-1) offers Exacta value. Profitable trainer George Weaver is sending out live wires here and the fresh early-pressing type has been stabled at the Spa since May. THE PLAYS: Exacta 7-4

SAR 6 (Clm-20k, 6f) #10 EQUIVOCATION (6-1) finished 2^nd in the slop (off the turf) when last seen May 25 and the show finisher came back to score. Jacobson excels 2^nd off the claim and barn $$ rider Cohen hops aboard. #3 Alcomatch (4-1) is back at his $20k claimed level after landing the place in a pair of $35k races for Jacobson. #14 Winning Touch (7-2) scored in local MSW bow in 2010. Catalano’s fragile 6yo drops to a new low and Johnny V rides. #1 Classic R And B (15-1) is up in class despite losing for $15k in the mud at 8f July 13. He is 1-1 here, retains Rosario, and is back at winning distance. #4 Non Stop (20-1) might be able to snare a piece of this. He handles dirt, moves to a profitable, low profile barn, and attracts Napravnik. THE PLAYS: #10 to win, Trifecta 3-10-14/3-10-14/1-3-4-10-14

SAR 7 (Alw-1x, 8.5f inner turf) #1 CANTONIC (7-2) chased fast fractions and finished 2^nd in a Belmont turf route June 21. Today’s fine grass pilot Rosie Napravnik booted this one home four times last year including a local grass victory. #5 Favor Factor (3-1) ran well in both turf starts for Chad Brown. #2 Indy Sea (9-2) ran into next out winners in his last pair and needed his July 3 return. THE PLAYS: #1 to win, Exacta 1/2-5, Exacta 2-5/1   

SAR 8 (OC-62.5k/2x, 8.5T) #5 KRIS ROYAL (5-1) had a less than ideal trip and ended up an even 5^th in needed turf return at Indiana Downs June 15. He graduated over the local weeds last summer and LoPresti excels with shippers. Look for a well-timed late move under Johnny V. #2 Sachem Spirit (4-1) shows up in a sharp layoff/turf barn (Clement). He has been competitive in all six grass starts and Leparoux has options with the versatile sort. #7 Z Dager (12-1) was the beaten favorite from the hedge on the Churchill weeds last time but his previous three turf races were sharp. #8 Film Shot (3-1) was right there in his last two starts vs. this kind. THE PLAYS: #5 to win, Exacta Box 2-5, Exacta 2-5/7-8

SAR 9 (G1 Diana, 9f inner turf) Can we get a hint of a price on #5 CENTRE COURT (5-2)? I did not like her chances on yielding ground in the G1 Just a Game and she failed to put her best foot forward that day as expected. She has never been out of the Exacta on firm turf (10 races) and she handles this course and distance. #2 Stephanie’s Kitten (5-2) beat Centre Court last time and is 2-for-2 this year on less than firm courses. She won the G2 Lake Placid at 9f here last summer, also beating my top. #1 Dream Peace (4-1) has landed the show in last four starts and can rally for that spot again. THE PLAYS: #5 to win, Exacta 5-2, Trifecta 2-5/2-5/1

SAR 10 (G2 Jim Dandy, 9f) #8 MYLUTE (7-2) appears poised to collect his first Stakes tally for Tom Amoss. He rallied for the place in the productive LA Derby before ending a respectable 5^th in the Kentucky Derby, and he finished in front of today’s favorite Palace Malice both times. He was the only one making up any ground in the slow early/fast late Preakness and has been freshened for a summer campaign. #2 Code West (6-1) beat Palace Malice and Mylute in the G2 Risen Star. He exits back-to-back wins and projects a ground saving tactical trip under new pilot Rosario. #5 Palace Malice (5-2) sat in the garden spot and won a somewhat fast early/slow late renewal of the Belmont Stakes. He lost his other four Graded starts and will be overbet today. He graduated here last summer and should sit a decent tactical trip. THE PLAYS: #8 to win, Trifecta 2-8/2-5-8/ALL

SAR 11 (Clm-20k, 5.5T) #5 BROWN INDIAN (8-1) attended the pace and held well (4^th, beaten 2.5 lengths) in a Belmont turf sprint off a lengthy layoff June 29. Espinoza is 2-for-3 with Weaver here and he figures in the hunt throughout at square odds. #10 Christiesborntorun (7-2) switches surfaces for sharp trainer Jason Servis. He has fired Exacta shots in 5 of 6 turf starts and Lezcano is a fine grass rider. #1 Richmond County (12-1) attracts Rosario and Asmussen returns him to the $20k ranks 2^nd off the claim. #11 Shotgun City (6-1) was nabbed out of his last by Maker and barn $$ rider Napravnik takes the call. #3 Writingonthewall (9-2) is back at his claimed level and attracts Castellano. The 4-time local winner should be forwardly placed from the outset. AE #13 Jess Not Jesse (5-1) is 3-for-3 in local turf sprints and can fire a fresh shot. He has speed and Cornelio V rides him well. THE PLAYS: #5 to win, Trifecta 5-10/1-5-10-11/1-3-5-10-11-13

Double/Pick 3/Pick 4 contenders – in order of preference

Race

1   (5-11-3-2-1)
2   (8-2-1)
3   (3-6-5)
4   (1-2-6)
5   (7)
6   (10-3-14-1-4)
7   (1-5-2)
8   (5-2-7-8)
9   (5-2-1)
10 (8-2-5)
11 (5-10-1-11-3-13)

 

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club Video Series

The 2013 Del Mar thoroughbred season got underway on Wednesday, July 17. In the video series below, I look back at the 2012 leading riders, trainers, and the track profile. I also take a look at current track bias trends, hot jockey-trainer teams, key races, and horses to watch for 2013.

Each week, I will recap the racing week that was at Del Mar, and preview the upcoming week.

As always, I will be posting daily free Del Mar Pick 6 selections and tickets:

For daily insight on Del Mar’s Pick 6 races, check out Pick 6blog.HorseRacingNation. com
for free selections and tickets.

Saratoga Race Course Free Play + Pick 6 Tickets – July 27

I am offering full card analysis from Saratoga Race Course each Saturday on my Today’s Racing Digest Handicapper page. For the July 27 program, I have posted a free play below, along with suggested Pick 6 tickets.

I also posted my July 20 full card from Saratoga at the bottom.

Check out my Saturday (July 27) Saratoga full card analysis (available now) at TodaysRacingDigest.com. For bonus free pick (SAR 11th race), click view sample. P6 spread tickets included with Saratoga analysis.

Upcoming full cards:
Saratoga Race Course (Sat. July 27) – available now!
Saratoga Saturdays (Aug. 3, 10, 17, 24, 31)

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Saratoga Race Course Free Play for Saturday, July 27

Saratoga Race 4 (MSW, 9.5T) #1 SUPREME COMMANDER (7-2) finished 4^th in his 8f bow at Belmont. He dons the hood for sharp first turf trainer Shirreffs and dam has tossed two turf winners. #2 Parnelli (5-1) goes 3^rd off the shelf and McLaughlin excels first lasix. #6 Unitarian (5-2) beat Parnelli June 22. He adds blinkers and also makes his third start off a layoff. THE PLAYS: #1 to win, Quinella 1/2-6  

Saratoga Race Course Pick 6 Tickets for Saturday, July 27

Saratoga full card analysis for Saturday (7-20-13)
By Jarrod Horak (horseracingnation.com, pick6blog.com)
Weather: Scattered T-Storms (60% chance). High 85.  Best Bets (races 6, 7, 8)

Highlights:
SAR 1 Palace Dreams ($15.40), Exacta ($73.50)
SAR 2 Asset Inflation ($5.70), Quinella ($29.60)
Daily Double (race 1-2, $42.60)
SAR 7 Crackerjack Jones/Soul House Exacta (Best Bet #2, $22.40)
SAR 8 Miraculousmo (Best Bet #3, $11.20)
Daily Double (race 7-8, $58.50)
SAR 9 Authenticity/Flashy American Exacta ($10.20)
Daily Double (race 8-9, $21.40)
Pick 3 (race 7-9, $93.50)
Pick 3 (8-10, $56.50)

SAR 1 (Alw-1x, 8.5f inner turf) #3 PALACE DREAMS (6-1) looked great in her 7f maiden win at Belmont June 20 and Duggan excels with his recent grads trying winners for the first time. She was 2^nd in her flat mile bow and Ortiz Jr. is a profitable 3-for-10 with Duggan recently. #5 Moonlit Sonnet (5-2) has been competitive in all four turf tries. Solis sticks and Lisa Lewis shows a profit with turf starters. #6 Heart of New York (3-1) is a fresh, late running threat for the productive Rosario/Brown combo. #10 Flirtatious Spring (8-1) is usually a tactical factor for Cornelio V/Rice. She handles firm and yielding ground. THE PLAYS: #3 to win, Exacta 3/5-6-10, Exacta 5-6-10/3

SAR 2 (MSW, 5.5T) #5 ASSET INFLATION (3-1) finished 2^nd in his Big A fast track bow April 20 and earned a similar number as the beaten favorite in the Belmont mud second time out. Dam has thrown two turf winners and he has the productive Castellano/Brown team in his corner. #6 Insighting (5-2) found trouble as the beaten favorite when last seen in a turf route at Aqueduct last November. He landed the place in his turf sprint bow and could come out firing under Rosario. #12 Poppy’s Watching (10-1) woke up with a close-up show finish vs. $16k maiden claiming turf sprinters June 26. Englehart excels with this type of class riser and J L Ortiz sticks with the outside stalker. THE PLAYS: #5 to win, Quinella 5/6-12

SAR 3 (My Princess Jess, 8.5f inner turf) #10 CAROLINE THOMAS (4-1) got no pace help in her last three and still managed to only missed by a neck June 16. The splits should be honest today and she could be sitting on a top effort in her third start off a layoff. #8 Wave Theory (5-2) beat my top May 27 and also needs pace help. Chad Brown excels with 46-90 day layoff runners and Rosario ends up here. #2 Kitten’s Queen (8-1) should sit a cozy ground saving tactical trip from the hedge under top notch turf rider Napravnik. THE PLAYS: #10 to win, Exacta 10/2-8, Exacta 2-8/10

SAR 4 (MSW, 5.5T) #11 ROSALIE’S PLEASURE (6-1) landed the place in her local turf sprint debut last summer and went to the sidelines after finishing up the track as the beaten favorite at Belmont three weeks later. She dons the hood for her profitable new barn and Castellano climbs aboard. #8 Therapy (3-1) has had her chances but I like the rider switch to J L Ortiz and she has the speed to succeed. She handles turf/dirt and set the pace in her two best efforts so look out if she shakes loose early. #2 Hot Rendezvous (7-2) has fired Trifecta shots in 3 of 5 turf sprints and will try to get involved late under Saez. THE PLAYS: #11 to win, Quinella 11/2-8

SAR 5 (Alw-1x, 8.5f inner turf) #11 POLIZIOTTO (4-1) is a 5yo with only four starts but he always fires and ran well in both local turf outings under today’s pilot Castellano. Chad Brown is a layoff wizard and I like his running style versatility. #5 Mr Cowboy (12-1) graduated over the local weeds last summer and lost as my top when returning to turf at Belmont July 6. #4 Noosh’s Tale (3-1) added lasix and missed by a neck in his last two turf starts vs. this kind. #2 Toy Cannon (5-1) is usually in the hunt but Mott’s late runner is always at the mercy of the pace. THE PLAYS: #11 to win, Exacta Box 5-11, Exacta 5-11/2-4  

SAR 6 (OC-62.5k/2x, 7f) #3 INTEGRITY (2-1) fired in both local sprints and beat next out winner Bad Hombre at Big Sandy June 8. Another live wire for Rosario and Brown. #8 Night Maneuver (4-1) was claimed out of his June 22 Belmont Park win at 6.5f by Contessa. He has won at this course and distance before. #6 Cozzetti (12-1) showed early interest and earned an improved number with the addition of blinkers in a Churchill turf route June 29. Romans excels route/sprint and 3^rd off the shelf. THE PLAYS: #3 to win, Exacta 3/6-8, Exacta 6-8/3

SAR 7 (OC-14k/1x, 6.5f) #8 SOUL HOUSE (4-1) scored in his local debut last year and returned this spring with a pair of even efforts at Belmont. Castellano and Weaver both had a solid meets here in 2012. #11 Crackerjack Jones (5-2) took action and finished 2^nd in his May 4 bow and cruised home as the favorite at this distance second time out. His connections are easy to like and he is an obvious forwardly placed factor at low odds. #13 Captain Davrick (5-1) is improving and likes the goo. THE PLAYS: #8 to win, Exacta 8/11-13, Exacta 11-13/8   

SAR 8 (MSW, 7f) #2 MIRACULOUSMO (9-2) finished a respectable 4^th from an outer post in his wet track bow under the Twin Spires May 11 and the 1-2 finishers both came back to score. He fired a local bullet July 15. #3 Apex (6-1) was 2^nd to Palace Malice and Micromanage in two local sprints here last summer. Mott’s fresh gelding also finished 2^nd in a 7f event at the Gulf this winter and did not handle the footing in a productive synthetic route when last seen at Keeneland April 13. #7 Charlie’s Picnic (5-1) ran an improved race at Belmont second time out and Rosario ends up here. THE PLAYS: #2 to win, Exacta 2/3-7, Exacta 3-7/2  

SAR 9 (G3 Shuvee, 9f) #2 FLASHY AMERICAN (12-1) got very good (suddenly) in her last pair. She won at this course/distance last summer and projects a tactical trip at square odds under Rosario. #3 Eblouissante (7-2) won both of her SoCal starts last year and Zenyatta’s baby sis has not been seen since. She is working well for this and figures to appreciate nine furlongs. #7 Authenticity (7-5) is a consistent stalker and Pletcher’s grade two winner is fresh and ready to rumble under Johnny V. #6 Summer Applause (5-2) is expected to contest the Del ‘Cap. THE PLAYS: #2 to win, Exacta Box 2-3, Exacta 2-3/7  

SAR 10 (G1 CCAO, 9f) Joel Rosario has a shot to steal this one aboard #1 MY HAPPY FACE (3-1). She ran well here last summer and has fired Exacta shots in all six outings. She cruised under today’s pilot for new trainer Chad Brown at Belmont June 13 and might get brave if able to sneak away early. I have always liked #2 Cue the Moon (10-1) and she still has some upside with only four races under her belt. The $310k purchase dons the hood and graduated here last summer. #4 Princess of Sylmar (9-5) has not been seen since upsetting the G1 Kentucky Oaks at this distance. She is using this as a prep race for the G1 Alabama and will try to get involved late at low odds. #3 Unlimited Budget (2-1) won four starts to begin her career. She finished 3^rd in the Kentucky Oaks and was a respectable 6^th of 14 when last seen in the Belmont Stakes. #5 Marathon Lady (5-1) rounds out the compact field. She remains eligible for an entry level spot and is capable of landing a share. THE PLAYS: #1 to win, Exacta Box 1-2, Exacta 1-2/4  

SAR 11 (Clm-20k, 6f) #12 VELVET CAP (4-1) drops below his $50k claimed price (today’s purse – $37k) for Maker, who excels 2^nd off the claim. He dons the hood, attracts Rosario, and fired a local bullet July 14. #4 Siero (12-1) is a neck away from a perfect 4-for-4 record and I like his early-pressing versatility. #6 Upward (12-1) was nabbed out of his last by claiming artist Ness and will probably improve. #9 Mr. D’oro (12-1) drops out of the Optional Claiming ranks for sharp trainer Jason Servis. THE PLAYS: #12 to win, Exacta 12/4-6-9, Exacta 4-6-9/12

Double/Pick 3/Pick 4 contenders – in order of preference

Race

1   (3-5-6-10)
2   (5-6-12)
3   (10-8-2)
4   (11-8-2)
5   (11-5-4-2)
6   (3-8-6)
7   (8-11-13)
8   (2-3-7)
9   (2-3-7)
10 (1-2-4)
11 (12-4-6-9)

 

Del Mar 2013 Preview Video

The 2013 Del Mar thoroughbred season gets underway on Wednesday, July 17. In the video below, I look back at the 2012 leading riders, trainers, and the track profile. I also take a look at races and horses to watch for 2013.

As always, I will be posting daily free Del Mar Pick 6 selections and tickets:

For daily insight on Del Mar’s Pick 6 races, check out Pick 6blog.HorseRacingNation. com
for free selections and tickets.

Belmont Stakes 2013 Day Analysis Recap

Thanks to everyone for purchasing my Belmont Stakes Day analysis from Belmont Park on Saturday, June 8. For those who missed it, I have included highlights and analysis below.

Belmont Stakes Day analysis highlights:

BEL 7 (G2 True North) FAST BULLET ($3.60), Exacta w/Laurie’s Rocket ($23.60)
Daily Double (race 6-7, $8.20)
Daily Double (race 7-8, $12.60)
Pick 3 (race 6-7-8, $29)
BEL 9 (G2 Woody Stephens) Forty Tales/Declan’s Warrior EXACTA (best bet #3, $97)
BEL 10 (G1 Manhattan) POINT OF ENTRY ($3.10), TRIFECTA ($57)
Double (race 9-10, $34.60)
Pick 3 (race 8-10, $119)

Upcoming Today’s Racing Digest full cards:

Churchill Saturdays (June 15, June 22, June 29)

Belmont Park Saturdays (July 6, July 13)

Saratoga Saturdays (July 20, July 27, Aug. 3, 10, 17, 24, 31)

Full card analysis can be purchased directly through me or via my Handicapper Page at TodaysRacingDigest.com. contact me at calkid692002@yahoo.com for more information.

Palace Malice surprises foes in Belmont Stakes 2013 – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Belmont Stakes Day Full Card Analysis – Saturday, June 8, 2013

By Jarrod Horak (horseracingnation.com, pick6blog.com)
Weather: AM Showers (50% chance). High 71. Best Bets (races 5, 6, 9, 11)

BEL 1 (OC-14k/1x, 6f) #5 TYCOON CAT (5-1) was nabbed out of his last by claiming artist Jacobson and Alvarado is 7-for-10 with this outfit recently. Both of his career wins occurred here and the versatile 5yo gelding gets pace to chase in the paper race. He is 2-for-45 lifetime and 0-for-15 at 6f but he goes for much better connections now. #9 Master Cip (2-1) earned the best last race number in a clear place finish at this course/distance May 4. The early-pressing threat dons the hood and attracts Rosario. #12 Comandante (8-1) always runs his race on fast/wet dirt. Trombetta excels turf/dirt and the early-pressing type can spring forward 2^nd off the shelf. THE PLAYS: #5 to win, Exacta 5/9-12, Exacta 9-12/5

BEL 2 (OC-25k/1x. 7f) #2 SLAN ABHAILE (7-2) fired Exacta shots in all three outings including back-to-back strong effort at this distance. The winner from his last came back to score again and Romans is sending out live wires here. #7 Integrity (3-1) cuts back and ran well at 7f at the Gulf Feb. 21. Rosario is 2-for-3 with Chad Brown. #5 Odea (6-1) is dangerous when he shakes loose early on wet tracks. He has yet to race beyond six furlongs. #9 Whatabouthonor (8-1) owns an ascending numbers pattern and hails from a profitable, low profile barn. I think 7f is pushing the stamina envelope. #4 Bad Hombre (15-1) got loose on wet footing at this course/distance May 11. Alvarado hops aboard and I am sure his connections are doing a rain dance. THE PLAYS: #2 to win, Trifecta 2-5-7/2-5-7/2-4-5-7-9

BEL 3 (MSW, 7T) #9 ATLANTIC’S SMILE (5-1) fired a local gate bullet May 31 and dam has tossed three winners from as many starters. Stormy Atlantic is a solid turf sire and she might be a factor on any footing. #4 Lara (6-1) earned a better number on the drop here May 12. Dam has tossed a turf winner and Levine excels 2^nd off the shelf.  #6 It’s Your Dime (5-2) is the one to catch on any footing. Stevens hops aboard the returnee. Main Track Only #13 Isn’tshewonderful (2-1) and #14 Concealed (5-2) own competitive dirt numbers. Rosario rides the former and the latter dons the hood for the productive Alvarado/Jacobson team. THE PLAYS: #9 to win, Trifecta 4-9/4-6-9-13-14/4-6-9-13-14

BEL 4 (MSW, 8f) #1 EL GENIO (5-1) deserves a second chance after taking action and finishing 5^th from the rail post in his 5.5f local bow May 15. He adds lasix-blinkers and the inside post is 30% at this trip. Iselin is 2-for-3 with second timers. #8 Captain Davrick (4-5) will probably earn his diploma at miniscule odds. He owns an ascending numbers pattern and exits a clear place finish over wet footing at Churchill. Rosario hops aboard the early-pressing gelding. #9 Native Singer (6-1) debuts with some decent local works and Galluscio can strike with a firster. Dam has tossed three winners. THE PLAYS: #1 to win, Quinella 1-9/8

BEL 5 (MSW, 8f) #4 ACCELERARE (6-1) finished a solid 3^rd in his local debut at 5-2 in the slop May 11. Pletcher excels with second timers and he also saddles #1 Sneaky Blowout (5-1). The latter ran well in his 7f bow at the Gulf under today’s rider Johnny V and was the beaten favorite at 8.5f here April 28. #6 Howie’s Tiz (7-2) finished a ½ length in front of Accelerare off a lengthy layoff last time. Rosario strings along and Levine excels 2^nd off the shelf. THE PLAYS: #4 to win, Exacta 4/1-6, Exacta 1-6/4  

BEL 6 (Easy Goer, 8.5f) #9 IRSAAL (4-1) earned vastly improved numbers with the addition of lasix in his last pair and he handled wet tracks both times. #4 Doherty (6-1) finished behind Irsaal in his last pair and his numbers continue to rise. #2 Power Broker (7-5) exits a smart wet track win at Churchill. Napravnik sticks and she has been clicking with Baffert recently (Code West, Midnight Lucky). #8 Wabbajack (8-1) owns a rising numbers pattern and sharp, low profile trainer Toner excels with his recent grads trying winners for the first time. THE PLAYS: #9 to win, Exacta 9/2-4-8, Exacta 2-4-8/9   

BEL 7 (G2 True North, 6f) #1 JUSTIN PHILLIP (7-5) has never been better. He exits back-to-back wins and moves up on wet footing. The Asmussen trainee has struck three times here. #1A FAST BULLET (7-5) makes his first start in more than six months. The lightly raced 5yo clearly has physical problems but he is talented when healthy. #2 Laurie’s Rocket (12-1) handles wet footing and is usually good for at least a share at 6f. #5 Caixa Electronica (7-2) won this last year and handles wet tracks. #6 Sage Valley (5-2) eyes five straight and must avoid a bounce. Johnny V hops off in favor of Justin Phillip. THE PLAYS: #1 to win, Exacta 1-5-6/2

BEL 8 (G1 Just a Game, 8T) Overseas invader #5 LAUGH OUT LOUD (15-1) seems to handle any turf footing and horses bred in Great Britain seem to relish less than firm footing when they run in the U.S. She captured a Group II at this trip over soft ground last year. #1 Hungry Island (4-1) and #2 Stephanie’s Kitten (5-2) finished necks apart at Churchill May 4 and both handle various turf conditions. The former has struck three times here and the latter is 3-for-4 at 8f. #7 Better Lucky (12-1) has won in the mud, slop, and firm turf so why not yielding or soft ground? Rosario at a square price. #3 Centre Court (3-1), #4 Dayatthespa (6-1), and #6 Mizdirection (7-2) are a combined 22-for-32 on turf but all seem to prefer firm footing. THE PLAYS: #5 to win, Trifecta 1-2-5/1-2-5/7

BEL 9 (G2 Woody Stephens, 7f) The paper race pace scenario looks demanding and #3 CAPO BASTONE (6-1) would love a speed duel. The Pletcher trainee is an effective late running sprinter and reunites with winning pilot Johnny V. He handles fast/wet dirt and earned his best career number in the G3 Derby Trial last out. #7 Forty Tales (5-1) necked Capo Bastone under the Twin Spires April 27 and is a solid off the pace threat once again.  #1 Declan’s Warrior (6-1) is 2-for-2 at this course/distance and a neck shy of a perfect 5-for-5 career mark. #9 Clearly Now (6-1) is versatile and always runs his race around one turn. #6 Zee Bros (4-1) is lightning quick and new pilot Napravnik is 3-for-4 with Baffert recently. He graduated at seven panels and would appreciate a speed favoring track. #11 Let Em Shine (3-1) is quality SoCal speed for the deadly Maldonado-Kitchingman team. His price is less than ideal and I want to see him prove it in this spot. THE PLAYS: #3 to win, Exacta Box 3-7, Exacta 3-7/1-9  

BEL 10 (G1 Manhattan ‘ Cap, 10f inner turf) #1 POINT OF ENTRY (3-5) has won 6 of his last 7 and the fresh, classy 5yo horse handles firm/yielding turf. He owns running style versatility and is reportedly training better than ever. #5 Optimizer (6-1) is an iron horse and the Lukas trainee handles any type of turf footing. The multiple Grade III winner usually falls a bit short vs. classier rivals but Rosario is up and he always tries hard. #4 Real Solution (12-1) won on heavy ground in Italy and can spring forward in his second U.S. start for Chad Brown. Leaproux is a solid grass rider. THE PLAYS: Trifecta 1/4-5/ALL, Trifecta 1/ALL/4-5

BEL 11 (G1 Belmont Stakes, 12f) 12 of the last 14 Belmont Stakes winners skipped the Preakness (exceptions – Afleet Alex, Point Given). 6 Derby losers since 2000 skipped Preakness and won Belmont (Union Rags, Summer Bird, Jazil, Birdstone, Empire Maker, Commendable) #9 REVOLUTIONARY (9-2) was my Derby top and galloped out in front after landing the show on the first Saturday in May. He won his other three routes including the productive LA Derby and is fresh and ready to turn the tables on Orb. He was 2^nd in his lone start here last year and his strong female family should enable him to navigate this marathon trip. He handles fast/wet dirt and reunites with winning pilot Castellano. #3 Overanalyze (12-1) wins every other race and he’s a Belmont Stakes winner if that pattern holds. The 3-time Graded winner captured the G2 Futurity here and owns the right grinding style to succeed at this distance. He reunites with 2-time Belmont Stakes winning rider Johnny V. His late sire Dixie Union was responsible for last year’s Belmont hero Union Rags. #5 Orb (3-1) had his 5-race win streak snapped in a flat Preakness effort from the dead-rail. He is better than his last and continues to train forwardly but this is his third start in five weeks. I have always liked Shug’s colt and maybe my Derby exacta box (Revolutionary-Orb) will come together this time around. #1 Frac Daddy (20-1) is firing bullets and there is talk of him going for the lead from the rail. McPeek has won the Belmont before and I liked him earlier this year. #14 Golden Soul (10-1) chugged up for the place in the Derby and can get a small piece of this. #13 Unlimited Budget (8-1) had her undefeated streak snapped with a Ky Oaks show finish. Female family says no to 12f but she will be in the right stalking spot under Napravnik. #12 Palace Malice (15-1) has not won beyond 6.5f and is eligible for entry level spot. #2 Freedom Child (8-1) freaked in the Peter Pan mud and might get wet footing again. He is training well for this but does not look like a marathon type. #7 Oxbow (5-1) stole the Preakness but won’t get loose this time and he never wins when he fails to set the pace. #6 Incognito (20-1) owns a decent pedigree but is not this quality yet. #10 Will Take Charge (20-1) is a gem of inconsistency. #11 Vyjack (20-1) is not bred for this trip. #4 Giant Finish (30-1) looks like a pace factor at the most. #8 Midnight Taboo (30-1) is lightly raced and overmatched. THE PLAYS: #9 to win, Exacta 9/3-5, Exacta 3-5/9, Trifecta 3-5-9/3-5-9/1-2-3-5-9-12-13-14

BEL 12 (OC-20/1x, 7T) #10 VISIONANDAPRAYER (5-1) ran well for new trainer Englehart in the local slop (off the turf) at 7f May 11. Barn $$ rider Irad Ortiz Jr. sticks and he’s a forwardly placed threat on any footing. #5 Why Not Whiskey (8-1) won his lone try at this course/distance (good ground) last year and needed his 8.5f comeback May 18. Main Track Only entrants #13 Bond Vigilante (3-1) and #14 Ultimate Empire (2-1) must be respected on dirt. The former beat a next out winner March 30 and the latter romped in the local mud May 9. THE PLAYS: #10 to win, Exacta 10/5-13-14, Exacta 5-13-14/10 

BEL 13 (Clm-20k, 8.5f inner turf) #1 NINEINTHENINE (3-1) handles firm/yielding turf and wet dirt. #4 J W Blue (4-1) looks like a threat on any footing for the productive Alvarado/Jacobson team. If this race moves to dirt, keep an eye on Main Track Only entrants #13 Sovereign Default (5-2) and #14 Handsome Harbor (7-2). They both exit place finishes in the local slop. THE PLAYS: #1 to win, Exacta 1/4-13-14, Exacta 4-13-14/1

Double/Pick 3/Pick 4 contenders – in order of preference

Race

1   (5-9-12)
2   (2-7-5-9-4)
3   (9-4-6-13-14)
4   (1-8-9)
5   (4-1-6)
6   (9-4-2-8)
7   (1)
8   (5-1-2-7)
9   (3-7-1-9)
10 (1-5-4)
11 (9-3-5)
12 (10-5-13-14)
13 (1-4-13-14)

Belmont Stakes 2013 Preview: Orb 3-1 Favorite

The field has been set for Belmont Stakes 2013 and 3-1 morning line favorite Orb will break from post position five.

Belmont Stakes 2013 Post Positions

PP, Horse, Trainer, Jockey, ML Odds

1. Frac Daddy, Ken McPeek, Alan Garcia  30-1
2. Freedom Child, Tom Albertrani, Luis Saez  8-1
3. Overanalyze, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez  12-1
4. Giant Finish, Tony Dutrow, Edgar Prado  30-1
5. Orb, Shug McGaughey, Joel Rosario  3-1
6. Incognito, Kiaran McLaughlin, Irad Ortiz Jr.  20-1
7. Oxbow, D. Wayne Lukas, Gary Stevens  5-1
8. Midnight Taboo, Todd Pletcher, Garrett Gomez  30-1
9. Revolutionary, Todd Pletcher, Javier Castellano 9-2
10. Will Take Charge, D. Wayne Lukas, Jon Court 20-1
11. Vyjack, Rudy Rodriguez, Julien Leparoux 20-1
12. Palace Malice, Todd Pletcher, Mike Smith 15-1
13. Unlimited Budget, Todd Pletcher, Rosie Napravnik 8-1
14. Golden Soul, Dallas Stewart, Robby Albarado 10-1

Recent Belmont Stakes History

12 of last 14 Belmont Stakes winners skipped Preakess (exceptions – Afleet Alex, Point Given).

Since 2000, 6 Derby losers skipped Preakness and won Belmont Stakes (Union Rags, Summer Bird, Jazil, Birdstone, Empire Maker, Commendable).

Fast Track Radio Show

For Belmont Stakes Day best bets and more, tune in to The Fast Track with Steve Borstein radio show on Saturday (June 8) morning at 10am (Eastern Time). Saturday’s guests include Joe DePaolo, Jarrod Horak, and Molly Jo Rosen.

Click here to listen to Saturday’s show.

Belmont Stakes Day Full Card Analysis

My Belmont Stakes Day analysis is available on my Handicapper page at Today’s Racing Digest.

Click here to visit my TRD Handicapper page. For bonus free pick, click view sample.