Posts Tagged ‘Unlimited Budget’

Belmont Stakes 2013 Preview: Orb 3-1 Favorite

The field has been set for Belmont Stakes 2013 and 3-1 morning line favorite Orb will break from post position five.

Belmont Stakes 2013 Post Positions

PP, Horse, Trainer, Jockey, ML Odds

1. Frac Daddy, Ken McPeek, Alan Garcia  30-1
2. Freedom Child, Tom Albertrani, Luis Saez  8-1
3. Overanalyze, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez  12-1
4. Giant Finish, Tony Dutrow, Edgar Prado  30-1
5. Orb, Shug McGaughey, Joel Rosario  3-1
6. Incognito, Kiaran McLaughlin, Irad Ortiz Jr.  20-1
7. Oxbow, D. Wayne Lukas, Gary Stevens  5-1
8. Midnight Taboo, Todd Pletcher, Garrett Gomez  30-1
9. Revolutionary, Todd Pletcher, Javier Castellano 9-2
10. Will Take Charge, D. Wayne Lukas, Jon Court 20-1
11. Vyjack, Rudy Rodriguez, Julien Leparoux 20-1
12. Palace Malice, Todd Pletcher, Mike Smith 15-1
13. Unlimited Budget, Todd Pletcher, Rosie Napravnik 8-1
14. Golden Soul, Dallas Stewart, Robby Albarado 10-1

Recent Belmont Stakes History

12 of last 14 Belmont Stakes winners skipped Preakess (exceptions – Afleet Alex, Point Given).

Since 2000, 6 Derby losers skipped Preakness and won Belmont Stakes (Union Rags, Summer Bird, Jazil, Birdstone, Empire Maker, Commendable).

Fast Track Radio Show

For Belmont Stakes Day best bets and more, tune in to The Fast Track with Steve Borstein radio show on Saturday (June 8) morning at 10am (Eastern Time). Saturday’s guests include Joe DePaolo, Jarrod Horak, and Molly Jo Rosen.

Click here to listen to Saturday’s show.

Belmont Stakes Day Full Card Analysis

My Belmont Stakes Day analysis is available on my Handicapper page at Today’s Racing Digest.

Click here to visit my TRD Handicapper page. For bonus free pick, click view sample.

 

 

 

Belmont Stakes 2013 Video Preview

We are less than a week away from Belmont Stakes 2013. In the video below, I discuss the recent history, projected pace scenario, and pedigrees. I have also included a written preview of all fifteen Belmont hopefuls.

Belmont Stakes 2013 hopefuls

Belmont Stakes 2013 Hopefuls (in alphabetical order):

Always in a Tiz (Tiznow) – Wood Memorial also-ran breezed 5f in 1:01.12 (2/8) at Belmont Park on 6-1. I fancied him earlier this year but the Test of Champions looks like an ambitious placement.

Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy) – Arkansas Derby runner-up was last seen finishing 16th on the first Saturday in May. He sports back-to-back bullets at Churchill Downs, most recently traveling 4f in :47.80 (1/42) on May 31.

Freedom Child (Malibu Moon): Freaked in the muddy Peter Pan Stakes and looms a pace factor at the very least in the Test of Champions. Split Orb and Revolutionary in a maiden race at the Big A last November. Has reportedly looked good in his Belmont gallops and breezed 5f in :59.87 (5/28) at Big Sandy on 5-27.

Giant Finish (Frost Giant) – New York bred son of Frost Giant finished 10th in the Kentucky Derby. Breezed 4f in :49.20 (4/9) at Fair Hill on 5-27.

Golden Soul (Perfect Soul) – LA Derby 4th place finisher took advantage of a pace meltdown to land the place in the Kentucky Derby. Dallas Stewart’s late runner breezed 5f in 1:00.40 (3/13) at Churchill Downs on 5-30.

Incognito (A.P. Indy) – McLaughlin trainee is by a Belmont Stakes winner and was last seen finishing 5th in the Peter Pan. He breezed 4f in :48.25 (13/57) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on 6-2.

Midnight Taboo (Langfuhr) – Lightly raced Pletcher/Repole runner breezed 5f in 1:00.88 (10/26) at Belmont Park on 6-2.

Orb (Malibu Moon) – Everything went right in the Kentucky Derby but the wheels came off the cart in the Preakness, ending his 5-race winning streak. He was confirmed for the Belmont Stakes after a 4f breeze in :48.30 (11/46) at Belmont on 6-2.

Overanalyze (Dixie Union) – 3-time graded winner (G2 Futurity, G2 Remsen, G1 Arkansas Derby) ended up 11th in the Kentucky Derby. He wins every other race and June 8 could be his day if that pattern holds. Breezed 4f in :48.01 (7/46) at Belmont Park on 6-2 and gets the services of 2-time Belmont Stakes winning rider John Velazquez (Union Rags, Rags to Riches).

Oxbow (Awesome Again) – Finished a solid 6th in the Derby after attending fast fractions from an inner post under Gary Stevens. Lukas trainee snuck away early and stole the Preakness for Stevens. He breezed 6f in 1:14.60 (1/2) at Churchill Downs on 5-30.

Palace Malice (Curlin): Risen Star show finisher ended up a troubled 7th in the LA Derby and rebounded with a 2nd in the Blue Grass. He set fast splits (blinkers on) before fading to 12th in the Kentucky Derby. He breezed 4f in :47.56 (4/46) at Belmont Park on 6-2.

Revolutionary (War Pass) – He has been my top ranked 3yo since February and my confidence has not wavered following a solid show finish in the Derby. I thought the Belmont Stakes was perfect for him after his smart Withers score earlier this year and he is bred to run all day on the dam side. He breezed 4f in :48.51 (14/46) at Belmont Park on 6-2.

Unlimited Budget (Street Sense) – 3-time graded winner lost for the first time after landing the show in the Kentucky Oaks. The Pletcher/Repole filly fired a 4f bullet in :47.55 (1/46) at Belmont Park on 6-2 and Rosie Napravnik will ride in the Belmont Stakes.

Vyjack (Into Mischief) – Overachiever does not own a strong marathon pedigree. The Kentucky Derby also-ran is scheduled to have his final Belmont Stakes workout on June 4.

Will Take Charge (Unbridled’s Song) – 2-time stakes winner (Smartly Jones, G2 Rebel) was a troubled 8th in the Derby and 7th in the Preakness. Breezed 6f in 1:15.80 (2/2) at Churchill Downs on 5-30.

Check out my Saturday (June 8) full card analysis from Belmont Park (available soon) at TodaysRacingDigest.com.

Upcoming full cards:

Belmont (Fri. June 7 – Brooklyn ‘Cap Day) – coming soon!
Belmont (Sat. June 8 – Belmont Stakes Day) – coming soon!


Preakness 2013 Recap – Oxbow steals show

Congratulations to Preakness 2013 hero Oxbow. Nobody wanted the early lead and Gary Stevens was more than happy to canter around the track and win this second jewel of the Triple Crown.

Oxbow wires field in Preakness 2013 – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Oxbow, owned by Calumet Farm, is a war horse for throwback connections Wayne Lukas and Gary Stevens. The Preakness Stakes was his 11th lifetime start and there is no rest in sight with the Test of Champions squarely on his radar screen.

Did Lukas scare everyone from a pace perspective? He entered sprinter Titletown Five and possibly fooled jockey Kevin Krigger aboard Goldencents.

Titletown Five did not go for the lead under Leaproux, and Goldencents failed to take advantage so Stevens and Oxbow walked the dog from start to finish.

I knew that Oxbow was best on the lead but did not think he was quick enough to get there. The pace figured to be slower than the Derby but I did not see the crawling Preakness pace coming.

Runner-up Itsmyluckyday was making his 12th career start in Baltimore so chalk another one up for experience. He got the best of the draw as an outside stalker and rediscovered his sharp Florida form.

Mylute picked up another minor check in stakes race. He was the only one making up any ground and the Preakness was his fifth place/show finish in the stakes ranks.

Kentucky Derby winner Orb seemed to be living a charmed life until he drew the dead rail. The outside closer never looked comfortable and went through the motions in a flat 4th place finish.

Granted, before the Preakness, Orb handled wet/fast footing and various pace scenarios but the Derby fell into the lap of a closer and everything went perfectly for Shug and company on the first Saturday in May.

Goldencents had one shot and that was to attempt a wire job but was ridden passively. He is a quality early runner with distance limitations and his best weapon was taken away at Pimlico.

Departing sat right outside of Orb and made a top three bid along the inside turning for home. He flattened out to finish 6th and was not disgraced in his toughest test to date.

Will Take Charge, Govenor Charlie, and Titletown Five trailed.

It is on the Belmont Stakes in 20-days and my top ranked sophomore Revolutionary looms large in the Test of Champions.

Belmont Stakes 2013 logo

Early Belmont Stakes 2013 Hopefuls (in alphabetical order):

Code West (Lemon Drop Kid) – Baffert’s runner followed up a place finish in the Risen Star with a 6th in the LA Derby. He finished 2nd on the Derby undercard and beat older allowance rivals to cap the Preakness Day card.

Freedom Child (Malibu Moon): Freaked in the muddy Peter Pan Stakes and looms a pace factor at the very least in the Test of Champions. Split Orb and Revolutionary in a maiden race at the Big A last November.

Golden Soul (Perfect Soul) – LA Derby 4th place finisher took advantage of a pace meltdown to land the place in the Kentucky Derby. Dallas Stewart’s late runner is scheduled to work at Churchill next Wed. or Thurs.

Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron) – Florida Derby runner-up flopped in the Derby and rebounded with a place finish in the Preakness. The Monmouth Park based colt is targeting the Haskell this summer but is still possible for the Belmont Stakes.

Micromanage (Medaglia d’Oro) – Finished 10th in the G2 Remsen to end his juvenile campaign. Returned with a game neck victory (wide trip) vs. allowance rivals at Monmouth May 11 and could go next in the Belmont Stakes.

Orb (Malibu Moon) – Everything went right in the Kentucky Derby but the wheels came off the cart in the Preakness, ending his 5-race winning streak. He may try to rebound in the Belmont Stakes but there is talk of resting him and waiting for Saratoga.

Overanalyze (Dixie Union) – G2 Remsen hero finished a wide, flat 5th from post 11 in his needed Gotham return. He bounced back nicely to win the Arkansas Derby and ended up 11th in the Kentucky Derby. Breezed 4f in :47.50 (3/34) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on 5-19.

Oxbow (Awesome Again) – Finished a solid 6th in the Derby after attending fast fractions from an inner post under Gary Stevens. Lukas trainee snuck away early and stole the Preakness for Stevens. He shows up for every dance so expect him to complete in the final leg of the Triple Crown series.

Palace Malice (Curlin): Risen Star show finisher ended up a troubled 7th in the LA Derby and rebounded with a 2nd in the Blue Grass. He set fast splits (blinkers on) before fading to 12th in the Kentucky Derby and is now targeting the Belmont. He breezed 4f in :47.49 (2/34) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on 5-19.

Power Broker (Pulpit) – $360k purchase graduated in style vs. graded foes in FrontRunner and raced wide and never got a chance to run his race in BC Juvenile. Baffert trainee finished 5th in his SA Derby return and won an allowance race at Churchill on May 10. The Belmont Stakes is a possibility.

Revolutionary (War Pass) – He has been my top ranked 3yo since February and my confidence has not wavered following a solid show finish in the Derby. I thought the Belmont Stakes was perfect for him after his smart Withers score earlier this year and he is bred to run all day on the dam side. He will work twice for the Belmont beginning Sunday, May 26.

Unlimited Budget (Street Sense) – 3-time graded winner lost for the first time after landing the show in the Kentucky Oaks. The Pletcher/Repole filly breezed 4f in :49.07 (14/34) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on 5-19.

Kentucky Derby 2013 Week Videos

The field is set for Kentucky Derby 2013 and it has been a crazy week at the offices of HorseRacingNation.com.

On Tuesday, I traveled to Churchill Downs and interviewed trainer Michelle Lovell. She is based at Fair Grounds in the winter and Churchill Downs in the spring. I wanted to find out about the differences in the two tracks and I also asked her about Rosie Napravnik, Mylute, and the Fair Grounds Derby horses.

Thursday was fun. I got to shoot three videos with special guests. Ryan Patterson had a great idea about a video consisting of a wet track scenario for the Derby. We did not have time to shoot it last week but jumped right into that one after checking the weather forecast for the first Saturday in May.

I have not done a video with Mike Shutty for quite some time. It was good to see him again and our video theme was live Derby longshots. If you need help in the Derby, check out Mike’s Kentucky Derby Super Screener product.

Finally, Jasen Mangrum contacted me last week and we set up a video for Thursday afternoon. I told him to pick a topic and he settled on the Kentucky Oaks-Woodford Reserve Turf Classic-Kentucky Derby Pick 3. Also, check out the Super Screener Handicapping Seminars.

My Kentucky Derby Day full card selections are now available:

Check out my Kentucky Derby 2013 full card at HorseRacingNation.com

If you would like to hear our Derby Day thoughts, I will be at my regular weekend spot on The Fast Track with Steve Bortstein radio show on Saturday morning (weekends at 10am eastern time).

Special thanks to my video editor and photographer, Stacy Edwards.