Archive for October, 2017

Tips to betting 2-year-olds on Churchill Downs’ Sunday races

By Jarrod Horak

The handicapping process in many races begins and ends with pace and speed figures, but juvenile races are not so cut and dry. Two-year-old sprint races in the spring and summer are typically dominated by early developing speed horses, though things begin to change when distances increase and surfaces switch.
Churchill Downs

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Here, I will lay out two of my favorite money making situations in juvenile races with Churchill Downs set to host its “Stars of Tomorrow” card Sunday under the Twin Spires.

Maiden 2-Year-Old Turf Routes

Pedigree analysis and trainer angles are the keys to making money in maiden juvenile turf races, and there are a pair of grass routes Sunday at Churchill.

Three ways to play Saturday’s all-stakes Pick 4 at Belmont Park

Race 7 on Saturday at Belmont Park, set for a 3:43 p.m. post time, kicks off an all-stakes Pick 4 in New York.

HRN handicapper Jarrod Horak lays out three ways to play it — but first, analyses of the races:

Belmont Park

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Grade 3 Athenia Stakes (Race 7 – 8.5T)

#5 TIME AND MOTION (6-1) was very good last year but has not been able to get things going in 2017. It appears that Toner finally has her healthy again and she has two bullets in her holster. She reconnects with winning rider Johnny V and should offer value. #7 Off Limits (2-1) fired Exacta shots in her last five and bumped her numbers up nicely in her last two wins. She is razor sharp now. #1 Elysea’s World (5-1) can be dangerous when she gets pace help but her only win in her last 10 starts was a 9f optional claiming score at GP (December 2016). She has placed in four graded turf routes this year.

Grade 3 Turnback the Alarm (Races 8 – 8.5f)

#3 MISS SKY WARRIOR (8-5) was part of a collapsing pace when last seen in the G1 Kentucky Oaks on a wet track and she ended up 8th of 14 that day. She rattled off five straight fast track wins (4 graded scores) before the Oaks and figures tough to deny if she is ready to roll off the bench for Breen. She has four bullets in her holster and Castellano hops aboard the early/pressing type. #5 Birdatthewire (8-1) stretches back out off a layoff and she likes this distance (7-2-2-1). #7 Eskenformoney (3-1) is 1-for-14 with 10 minor awards at this distance. She can get a piece of this or possibly more in her career finale.

Click here to view the rest of this post at Horse Racing Nation

HRN Sunday Picks: English Channel, Anoakia, Dowager

Each weekend we reach out to our network of editors, writers and bloggers for their thoughts on the country’s biggest stakes races.

Belmont Park

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

On Sunday, we’ve lined up stakes picks from coast to coast, starting with Belmont’s English Channel, then to Santa Anita’s Anoakia and finally Keeneland’s Dowager.

Best of luck! Now, to the picks…

$100,000 English Channel Stakes (4:13 p.m. ET at Belmont Park)

Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze’s Corner (@jeffbyrnes96)

Winner: #10 Souper Tapit

On the board: #3 Let’s Get Loud, #11 Fact Finding

Longshot I like: #6 No Dozing

Analysis: Souper Tapit returns to the races off a five-month layoff. The last time we saw him, he won the Marine Stakes at Woodbine over the Tapeta surface. After three races on dirt, the Live Oak homebred switched to a different surface and dominated his competition. This will be his turf debut, but his pedigree suggests he should take to the surface. His dam, Grade 1 winner Zo Impressive, has a family that’s full of turf winners. Coming into this race off a bullet work on Oct. 14, this son of Tapit is ready to roll on the Belmont turf course.

Jarrod Horak (@jchorak)

Winner: #6 No Dozing

On the board: #3 Let’s Get Loud, #10 Souper Tapit

Longshot I like: #4 Dalarna

Analysis: No Dozing was overmatched in the G1 Allen Jerkens last time. Dam has produced two turf winners and trainer Delacour is 14-for-42 (33%) first turf.

Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@writingcasey)

Winner: #10 Souper Tapit

On the Board: #6 No Dozing, #3 Let’s Get Loud

Longshot I like: #2 Lunaire

Analysis: I think Souper Tapit will do just fine on the turf after running on the all-weather at Woodbine last out. This will also be No Dozing’s first start on the turf, so I am anticipating he can move up a bit.

Jasen Mangrum, Handicapper’s Corner (@Cappercorner)

Winner: #10 Souper Tapit

On the board: #6 No Dozing, #11 Fact Finding

Longshot I like: #2 Lumaire

Analysis: Souper Tapit has never raced on the grass, but a repeat of his only effort over Polytrack will put him straight in the winner’s circle.No Dozing has also yet to try turf, but is bred for lawn and a mile is his best distance. #11 Fact Finding looks to be the dangerous lone speed in the race.

My plays: $2 trifecta 10/2,3,6,11/2,3,6,11=$24 $1 trifecta 2,3,6,11/10/2,3,6,11=$12 Total Bet=$36

Matt Scott, 55,000 Furlongs to the Finish

Winner: #3 Let’s Get Loud

On the board: #10 Souper Tapit

Analysis: The weather looks to keep this on the turf, so limiting the selections, Souper Tapit could put in quite a show as a first time turf starter. However, I’ll stick with Chad Brown and the greenly raced Lets Get Loud when the running is on the green stuff.

Matt Shifman, NY State of Racing (@andyscoggin)

Winner: #11 Fact Finding

On the board: #3 Let’s Get Loud, #10 Souper Tapit

Longshot I like: #2 Lunaire

Analysis: The English Channel attracted a mixed bag of runners that includes horses that were briefly on the Kentucky Derby trail, some of which have not yet run on the grass. Fact Finding won three in a row to start his career and then something went amiss in the Sam F. Davis. I think his return in the turf sprint could be pointing to a big effort here.

To view staff picks for the Anoakia and Dowager, please visit Horse Racing Nation.

How to make money betting 2017’s Maryland Million Day card

By Jarrod Horak
The annual Jim McKay Maryland Million program has always been a must-see event for me since its inception in 1986. I have attended the Maryland showcase many times over the years, and the 2017 renewal features full fields and many excellent wagering opportunities. Let’s dive into the card:

Photo by Jarrod Horak

Maryland Million Nursery (Race 3 – Six Furlongs) 

#4 PASCAL CHANT (8-1) is going to have to move forward to compete here but he might do just that after back-to-back fast local workouts. He will probably stalk the pace under Edgar Prado.

#2 Jamaican Don (8-5) is quick enough to go all the way. He dusted a next out winner as the heavy favorite in his Thistledown bow and set the pace and held the place in a 5.5 furlong Delaware stakes event Sept. 30.

#1 Clever Mind (5-1) is a Graham Motion first timer with an Oct. 6 Fair Hill bullet. Dam has produced four winners from as many starters (1 stakes winner).

#9 Onemoregreattime (7-2) ran well in three of four outings and might be able to relax a bit from an outer post.

AE #10 Whereshetoldmetogo (2-1) ran extremely well in all three sprints and is a strong win threat from off the pace if able to get in from the also-eligible list.


#4 to win

Exacta 4/1-2-9-10

Exacta 1-2-9-10/4