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Kentucky Derby 2020 trail starts up

The road to Kentucky Derby 2020 starts up the first week of the new year with three Derby preps nationwide.

The most important is possibly the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita, where Bob Baffert has two runners in Authentic and Azul Coast, who will meet the highly regarded Honor A.P. from the John Shirreffs barn. 

2020 Sham (G3)

*Rating is based on HRN fan votes, which rank the Top Active Horses in training.

On Wednesday, the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct kick off the new year and the Derby trail for this year’s three-year-old colts and geldings.  The Jerome is led by Independence Hall, an impressive winner of the Grade 3 Nashua stakes back on November 3 at Aqueduct.

2020 Jerome (LS)

In addition to the Sham and the Jerome, on Saturday there is the Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream Park.  While not a graded stakes, the Mucho Macho Man features south Florida Derby contenders who may progress to the Holy Bull, Fountain of Youth or Florida Derby.

How to bet Sunday’s Del Mar Pick 6 on a budget

By Jarrod Horak, (@jchorak)

Sunday is closing day of the fall meet at Del Mar, and the Pick 6 has a mandatory payout. There is also a Single Ticket Jackpot Carryover of $104,118.

Del Mar

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

I will use one of my favorite cost-effective Pick 6 wagering strategies, the spread ticket formula. In the spread tickets below, I have separated my primary and secondary win contenders to keep the cost down. It would cost $720 to lump all of my contenders on one ticket, but the spread ticket formula knocks the price down to a much more reasonable $176.

Pick 6 Contenders for Sunday

Race 4 (OC-20k/1x, CA-bred, 6.5f) 
Primary – #6 Gemini Journey, #7 Haviture Way
Secondary – #3 Desert Madam, #2 Gotham Desire

Beat the Favorite: Om looks vulnerable in 2017 Seabiscuit Handicap

By Jarrod Horak, (@jchorak)

Om is the 5-2 morning line favorite in Sunday’s Seabiscuit Handicap at Del Mar, and you have to go all the way back to the 2015 Mathis Brothers Mile to find his last win. 

Del Mar

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Om has raced 10 times since without a victory, compiling four runner-up efforts and four show finishes. He added blinkers for his last two starts and did not show his usual tactical speed in either of those events. He has the back class to make a run at the top prize but lacks a winning spirit recently, won’t offer much value on the win end, and is probably best used underneath.  
Flamboyant and Tequila Joe finished third and fourth in the Hollywood Turf Cup on Nov. 24, and both will scratch from this spot. That leaves a trio of logical win alternatives to the favorite starting with Pee Wee Reese. The Phil D’Amato trainee is 4-for-5 with a 2nd on turf and the pace player runs well fresh. He earned his best speed figure yet when last seen in the American Stakes at Santa Anita on July 4 and he defeated Om that day.  

3 longshots to bet in Sunday’s Del Mar races

By Jarrod Horak, (@jchorak)
Breeders’ Cup 2017 might be in the books, but the fall racing action continues at Del Mar, and there are plenty of money-making opportunities on the horizon. Here are three live longshots to consider for Sunday’s card.
Del Mar

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Del Mar Race 3 – Claiming $8,000 – 6f – Post Time 4:33 p.m. ET
Live Longshot#4 Lambo Luxx (8-1) struggled at the $12,500 level in three of his last five starts. If you remove those races you are left with back-to-back $8,000 victories on July 2 and July 26. He switches from 5-pound apprentice rider Roman to 7-pound apprentice Fuentes and should offer value.
Top Win Contenders#9 Pray Hard#3 Airfoil (5-2), #8 Madelyn’s Wild Max (6-1).
Wagering Strategy #1 ($20) – $4 to win, $6 to place, $10 to show #4
Wagering Strategy #2 ($30) – $12 to win #4, $6 Quinella 9/3-4-8 ($18)

Please read the rest of this post at Horse Racing Nation

Bet these Breeders’ Cup Saturday runners next time out

By Jarrod Horak, (@jchorak)

This is part two of a series designed to find values on 2017 Breeders’ Cup runners heading into their next starts. Part one covered Friday’s races at Del Mar, with this an analysis of Saturday’s runners.

Del Mar

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Juvenile Turf Sprint

This was not a Breeders’ Cup event, but Count Alexander had a brutal trip and is definitely going on my watch list. In this five-furlong turf sprint, Count Alexander seemed to have plenty of run turning for home under Corey Nakatani but was stuck inside with nowhere to go. He ended up 11th but could have easily finished in the top three with a different trip. 

Juvenile Fillies

This did not appear to be a strong renewal of this event, and the final time was mediocre. The pace was honest and Caledonia Road rallied from post twelve to post an easy score at 17-1 odds under Mike Smith. Alluring Star did all of the pace dirty work, pulled clear in the lane, and just held 2nd in a decent effort. Blonde Bomber rallied from 13th to land the show. Separationofpowers was wide and prominent throughout after a bit of a slow start from the outside post and ended up an okay 4th. Wonder Gadot did not have the smoothest stretch run and was not disgraced in 6th. Post time favorite Moonshine Memories dueled and retreated to 7th. 

Please check out the rest of this post at Horse Racing Nation.

Bet these 2017 Breeders’ Cup Friday runners next time out

By Jarrod Horak, (@jchorak)

Breeders’ Cup 2017 is in the books, and following an exciting two days at Del Mar, let’s try to find some horses moving forward out of the championships for future wagering opportunities.

Del Mar

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Juvenile Fillies Turf

I think the best horse won the first Breeders’ Cup 2017 race. Rushing Fall showed a nice late kick in her first two turf outings, including Keeneland’s Grade 3 Jessamine, and she did it again in this spot at Del Mar for Javier Castellano and Chad Brown. Best Performance and September rallied for second and third. 

The horse I am most interested in going forward is 4th-place finisher Significant Form (also trained by Brown) — and not just because she was my value top choice. She was the only forwardly placed runner to be around at the end. The top three, and 5th through 8th place finishers, were 9th, 8th, 14th, 11th, 7th, 10th, and 13th after the opening quarter. In the early stages, Significant Form was stalking three-wide in 4th. She hung in there throughout in a solid effort and is definitely worth following. She crossed the line first (placed 7th via disqualification Aug. 27) in her initial two Belmont starts including a sharp victory in the Grade 3 Miss Grillo.

Please read the rest of this post at Horse Racing Nation

Betting 2017 Breeders’ Cup Saturday on a $100 bankroll

By Jarrod Horak, (@jchorak)

On Friday, I covered Breeders’ Cup Day 1 with a $100 bankroll and I will use the same key horse method for my Saturday wagers. The most probable winner on the Saturday card is possible 2-year-old champion and early Kentucky Derby 2018 favorite Bolt d’Oro in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Race 10). 

Del Mar

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

#11 Bolt d’Oro is 3-for-3 and looked sensational in his romping Grade 1 FrontRunner victory on Sept. 30. He is 2-for-2 at Del Mar and wins this for fun if he runs back to his last. Post 11 is meaningless if he is as good as advertised. He could be even money or less, so I will skip the win wager and concentrate on exactas, trifectas, and superfectas.  

How to make money betting the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic

By Jarrod Horak, (@jchorak)

There are two ways to make money betting the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic. The first is to beat heavy race favorites Arrogate and Gun Runner. The second is to find a live longshot to finish underneath at long odds.

Before choosing which way to go with bettering Saturday’s race at Del Mar, let’s analyze the field:

Click here to read the rest of this blog at Horse Racing Nation

Betting 2017 Breeders’ Cup Friday on a $100 bankroll

By Jarrod Horak, (@jchorak)

There are many ways to tackle the two-day Breeders’ Cup betting bonanza, but my favorite is to key one or two horses each day.

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

My key horse for Breeders’ Cup Friday is Elate in the Distaff. Her trainer, Bill Mott, has saddled the winner of the Distaff five times, and his improving 3-year-old filly might make it six for the Hall of Famer.

Elate is starting to live up to the hype that was placed on her after romping by more than 12 lengths in her career debut last fall. She dropped four straight after her bow and turned the corner after a confidence-boosting minor stakes score at Delaware Park. She just missed in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks on July 23 and romped in her last pair in the Grade 1 Alabama and Grade 1 Beldame. She is reportedly training forwardly for the Distaff as well.

I will split up my $100 bankroll by playing 30% to win, 50% in exactas, trifectas, and superfectas, and 20% in daily double wagers.

You can read the rest of this post at Horse Racing Nation

Tips to betting 2-year-olds on Churchill Downs’ Sunday races

By Jarrod Horak

The handicapping process in many races begins and ends with pace and speed figures, but juvenile races are not so cut and dry. Two-year-old sprint races in the spring and summer are typically dominated by early developing speed horses, though things begin to change when distances increase and surfaces switch.
Churchill Downs

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Here, I will lay out two of my favorite money making situations in juvenile races with Churchill Downs set to host its “Stars of Tomorrow” card Sunday under the Twin Spires.

Maiden 2-Year-Old Turf Routes

Pedigree analysis and trainer angles are the keys to making money in maiden juvenile turf races, and there are a pair of grass routes Sunday at Churchill.