Posts Tagged ‘full card analysis’

Saratoga Race Course Free Play + Pick 6 Tickets – July 27

I am offering full card analysis from Saratoga Race Course each Saturday on my Today’s Racing Digest Handicapper page. For the July 27 program, I have posted a free play below, along with suggested Pick 6 tickets.

I also posted my July 20 full card from Saratoga at the bottom.

Check out my Saturday (July 27) Saratoga full card analysis (available now) at TodaysRacingDigest.com. For bonus free pick (SAR 11th race), click view sample. P6 spread tickets included with Saratoga analysis.

Upcoming full cards:
Saratoga Race Course (Sat. July 27) – available now!
Saratoga Saturdays (Aug. 3, 10, 17, 24, 31)

Saratoga Race Course

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Saratoga Race Course Free Play for Saturday, July 27

Saratoga Race 4 (MSW, 9.5T) #1 SUPREME COMMANDER (7-2) finished 4th in his 8f bow at Belmont. He dons the hood for sharp first turf trainer Shirreffs and dam has tossed two turf winners. #2 Parnelli (5-1) goes 3rd off the shelf and McLaughlin excels first lasix. #6 Unitarian (5-2) beat Parnelli June 22. He adds blinkers and also makes his third start off a layoff. THE PLAYS: #1 to win, Quinella 1/2-6  

Saratoga Race Course Pick 6 Tickets for Saturday, July 27

del mar p6 capture

Saratoga full card analysis for Saturday (7-20-13)
By Jarrod Horak (horseracingnation.com, pick6blog.com)
Weather
: Scattered T-Storms (60% chance). High 85.  Best Bets (races 6, 7, 8)

Highlights:
SAR 1 Palace Dreams ($15.40), Exacta ($73.50)
SAR 2 Asset Inflation ($5.70), Quinella ($29.60)
Daily Double (race 1-2, $42.60)
SAR 7 Crackerjack Jones/Soul House Exacta (Best Bet #2, $22.40)
SAR 8 Miraculousmo (Best Bet #3, $11.20)
Daily Double (race 7-8, $58.50)
SAR 9 Authenticity/Flashy American Exacta ($10.20)
Daily Double (race 8-9, $21.40)
Pick 3 (race 7-9, $93.50)
Pick 3 (8-10, $56.50)

SAR 1 (Alw-1x, 8.5f inner turf) #3 PALACE DREAMS (6-1) looked great in her 7f maiden win at Belmont June 20 and Duggan excels with his recent grads trying winners for the first time. She was 2nd in her flat mile bow and Ortiz Jr. is a profitable 3-for-10 with Duggan recently. #5 Moonlit Sonnet (5-2) has been competitive in all four turf tries. Solis sticks and Lisa Lewis shows a profit with turf starters. #6 Heart of New York (3-1) is a fresh, late running threat for the productive Rosario/Brown combo. #10 Flirtatious Spring (8-1) is usually a tactical factor for Cornelio V/Rice. She handles firm and yielding ground. THE PLAYS: #3 to win, Exacta 3/5-6-10, Exacta 5-6-10/3

SAR 2 (MSW, 5.5T) #5 ASSET INFLATION (3-1) finished 2nd in his Big A fast track bow April 20 and earned a similar number as the beaten favorite in the Belmont mud second time out. Dam has thrown two turf winners and he has the productive Castellano/Brown team in his corner. #6 Insighting (5-2) found trouble as the beaten favorite when last seen in a turf route at Aqueduct last November. He landed the place in his turf sprint bow and could come out firing under Rosario. #12 Poppy’s Watching (10-1) woke up with a close-up show finish vs. $16k maiden claiming turf sprinters June 26. Englehart excels with this type of class riser and J L Ortiz sticks with the outside stalker. THE PLAYS: #5 to win, Quinella 5/6-12

SAR 3 (My Princess Jess, 8.5f inner turf) #10 CAROLINE THOMAS (4-1) got no pace help in her last three and still managed to only missed by a neck June 16. The splits should be honest today and she could be sitting on a top effort in her third start off a layoff. #8 Wave Theory (5-2) beat my top May 27 and also needs pace help. Chad Brown excels with 46-90 day layoff runners and Rosario ends up here. #2 Kitten’s Queen (8-1) should sit a cozy ground saving tactical trip from the hedge under top notch turf rider Napravnik. THE PLAYS: #10 to win, Exacta 10/2-8, Exacta 2-8/10

SAR 4 (MSW, 5.5T) #11 ROSALIE’S PLEASURE (6-1) landed the place in her local turf sprint debut last summer and went to the sidelines after finishing up the track as the beaten favorite at Belmont three weeks later. She dons the hood for her profitable new barn and Castellano climbs aboard. #8 Therapy (3-1) has had her chances but I like the rider switch to J L Ortiz and she has the speed to succeed. She handles turf/dirt and set the pace in her two best efforts so look out if she shakes loose early. #2 Hot Rendezvous (7-2) has fired Trifecta shots in 3 of 5 turf sprints and will try to get involved late under Saez. THE PLAYS: #11 to win, Quinella 11/2-8

SAR 5 (Alw-1x, 8.5f inner turf) #11 POLIZIOTTO (4-1) is a 5yo with only four starts but he always fires and ran well in both local turf outings under today’s pilot Castellano. Chad Brown is a layoff wizard and I like his running style versatility. #5 Mr Cowboy (12-1) graduated over the local weeds last summer and lost as my top when returning to turf at Belmont July 6. #4 Noosh’s Tale (3-1) added lasix and missed by a neck in his last two turf starts vs. this kind. #2 Toy Cannon (5-1) is usually in the hunt but Mott’s late runner is always at the mercy of the pace. THE PLAYS: #11 to win, Exacta Box 5-11, Exacta 5-11/2-4  

SAR 6 (OC-62.5k/2x, 7f) #3 INTEGRITY (2-1) fired in both local sprints and beat next out winner Bad Hombre at Big Sandy June 8. Another live wire for Rosario and Brown. #8 Night Maneuver (4-1) was claimed out of his June 22 Belmont Park win at 6.5f by Contessa. He has won at this course and distance before. #6 Cozzetti (12-1) showed early interest and earned an improved number with the addition of blinkers in a Churchill turf route June 29. Romans excels route/sprint and 3rd off the shelf. THE PLAYS: #3 to win, Exacta 3/6-8, Exacta 6-8/3

SAR 7 (OC-14k/1x, 6.5f) #8 SOUL HOUSE (4-1) scored in his local debut last year and returned this spring with a pair of even efforts at Belmont. Castellano and Weaver both had a solid meets here in 2012. #11 Crackerjack Jones (5-2) took action and finished 2nd in his May 4 bow and cruised home as the favorite at this distance second time out. His connections are easy to like and he is an obvious forwardly placed factor at low odds. #13 Captain Davrick (5-1) is improving and likes the goo. THE PLAYS: #8 to win, Exacta 8/11-13, Exacta 11-13/8   

SAR 8 (MSW, 7f) #2 MIRACULOUSMO (9-2) finished a respectable 4th from an outer post in his wet track bow under the Twin Spires May 11 and the 1-2 finishers both came back to score. He fired a local bullet July 15. #3 Apex (6-1) was 2nd to Palace Malice and Micromanage in two local sprints here last summer. Mott’s fresh gelding also finished 2nd in a 7f event at the Gulf this winter and did not handle the footing in a productive synthetic route when last seen at Keeneland April 13. #7 Charlie’s Picnic (5-1) ran an improved race at Belmont second time out and Rosario ends up here. THE PLAYS: #2 to win, Exacta 2/3-7, Exacta 3-7/2  

SAR 9 (G3 Shuvee, 9f) #2 FLASHY AMERICAN (12-1) got very good (suddenly) in her last pair. She won at this course/distance last summer and projects a tactical trip at square odds under Rosario. #3 Eblouissante (7-2) won both of her SoCal starts last year and Zenyatta’s baby sis has not been seen since. She is working well for this and figures to appreciate nine furlongs. #7 Authenticity (7-5) is a consistent stalker and Pletcher’s grade two winner is fresh and ready to rumble under Johnny V. #6 Summer Applause (5-2) is expected to contest the Del ‘Cap. THE PLAYS: #2 to win, Exacta Box 2-3, Exacta 2-3/7  

SAR 10 (G1 CCAO, 9f) Joel Rosario has a shot to steal this one aboard #1 MY HAPPY FACE (3-1). She ran well here last summer and has fired Exacta shots in all six outings. She cruised under today’s pilot for new trainer Chad Brown at Belmont June 13 and might get brave if able to sneak away early. I have always liked #2 Cue the Moon (10-1) and she still has some upside with only four races under her belt. The $310k purchase dons the hood and graduated here last summer. #4 Princess of Sylmar (9-5) has not been seen since upsetting the G1 Kentucky Oaks at this distance. She is using this as a prep race for the G1 Alabama and will try to get involved late at low odds. #3 Unlimited Budget (2-1) won four starts to begin her career. She finished 3rd in the Kentucky Oaks and was a respectable 6th of 14 when last seen in the Belmont Stakes. #5 Marathon Lady (5-1) rounds out the compact field. She remains eligible for an entry level spot and is capable of landing a share. THE PLAYS: #1 to win, Exacta Box 1-2, Exacta 1-2/4  

SAR 11 (Clm-20k, 6f) #12 VELVET CAP (4-1) drops below his $50k claimed price (today’s purse – $37k) for Maker, who excels 2nd off the claim. He dons the hood, attracts Rosario, and fired a local bullet July 14. #4 Siero (12-1) is a neck away from a perfect 4-for-4 record and I like his early-pressing versatility. #6 Upward (12-1) was nabbed out of his last by claiming artist Ness and will probably improve. #9 Mr. D’oro (12-1) drops out of the Optional Claiming ranks for sharp trainer Jason Servis. THE PLAYS: #12 to win, Exacta 12/4-6-9, Exacta 4-6-9/12

Double/Pick 3/Pick 4 contenders – in order of preference

Race

1   (3-5-6-10)
2   (5-6-12)
3   (10-8-2)
4   (11-8-2)
5   (11-5-4-2)
6   (3-8-6)
7   (8-11-13)
8   (2-3-7)
9   (2-3-7)
10 (1-2-4)
11 (12-4-6-9)

 

Belmont Stakes 2013 Day Analysis Recap

Thanks to everyone for purchasing my Belmont Stakes Day analysis from Belmont Park on Saturday, June 8. For those who missed it, I have included highlights and analysis below.

Belmont Stakes Day analysis highlights:

BEL 7 (G2 True North) FAST BULLET ($3.60), Exacta w/Laurie’s Rocket ($23.60)
Daily Double (race 6-7, $8.20)
Daily Double (race 7-8, $12.60)
Pick 3 (race 6-7-8, $29)
BEL 9 (G2 Woody Stephens) Forty Tales/Declan’s Warrior EXACTA (best bet #3, $97)
BEL 10 (G1 Manhattan) POINT OF ENTRY ($3.10), TRIFECTA ($57)
Double (race 9-10, $34.60)
Pick 3 (race 8-10, $119)

Upcoming Today’s Racing Digest full cards:

Churchill Saturdays (June 15, June 22, June 29)

Belmont Park Saturdays (July 6, July 13)

Saratoga Saturdays (July 20, July 27, Aug. 3, 10, 17, 24, 31)

Full card analysis can be purchased directly through me or via my Handicapper Page at TodaysRacingDigest.com. contact me at calkid692002@yahoo.com for more information.

Palace Malice Belmont Stakes 2013

Palace Malice surprises foes in Belmont Stakes 2013 – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Belmont Stakes Day Full Card Analysis – Saturday, June 8, 2013

By Jarrod Horak (horseracingnation.com, pick6blog.com)
Weather
: AM Showers (50% chance). High 71. Best Bets (races 5, 6, 9, 11)

BEL 1 (OC-14k/1x, 6f) #5 TYCOON CAT (5-1) was nabbed out of his last by claiming artist Jacobson and Alvarado is 7-for-10 with this outfit recently. Both of his career wins occurred here and the versatile 5yo gelding gets pace to chase in the paper race. He is 2-for-45 lifetime and 0-for-15 at 6f but he goes for much better connections now. #9 Master Cip (2-1) earned the best last race number in a clear place finish at this course/distance May 4. The early-pressing threat dons the hood and attracts Rosario. #12 Comandante (8-1) always runs his race on fast/wet dirt. Trombetta excels turf/dirt and the early-pressing type can spring forward 2nd off the shelf. THE PLAYS: #5 to win, Exacta 5/9-12, Exacta 9-12/5

BEL 2 (OC-25k/1x. 7f) #2 SLAN ABHAILE (7-2) fired Exacta shots in all three outings including back-to-back strong effort at this distance. The winner from his last came back to score again and Romans is sending out live wires here. #7 Integrity (3-1) cuts back and ran well at 7f at the Gulf Feb. 21. Rosario is 2-for-3 with Chad Brown. #5 Odea (6-1) is dangerous when he shakes loose early on wet tracks. He has yet to race beyond six furlongs. #9 Whatabouthonor (8-1) owns an ascending numbers pattern and hails from a profitable, low profile barn. I think 7f is pushing the stamina envelope. #4 Bad Hombre (15-1) got loose on wet footing at this course/distance May 11. Alvarado hops aboard and I am sure his connections are doing a rain dance. THE PLAYS: #2 to win, Trifecta 2-5-7/2-5-7/2-4-5-7-9

BEL 3 (MSW, 7T) #9 ATLANTIC’S SMILE (5-1) fired a local gate bullet May 31 and dam has tossed three winners from as many starters. Stormy Atlantic is a solid turf sire and she might be a factor on any footing. #4 Lara (6-1) earned a better number on the drop here May 12. Dam has tossed a turf winner and Levine excels 2nd off the shelf#6 It’s Your Dime (5-2) is the one to catch on any footing. Stevens hops aboard the returnee. Main Track Only #13 Isn’tshewonderful (2-1) and #14 Concealed (5-2) own competitive dirt numbers. Rosario rides the former and the latter dons the hood for the productive Alvarado/Jacobson team. THE PLAYS: #9 to win, Trifecta 4-9/4-6-9-13-14/4-6-9-13-14

BEL 4 (MSW, 8f) #1 EL GENIO (5-1) deserves a second chance after taking action and finishing 5th from the rail post in his 5.5f local bow May 15. He adds lasix-blinkers and the inside post is 30% at this trip. Iselin is 2-for-3 with second timers. #8 Captain Davrick (4-5) will probably earn his diploma at miniscule odds. He owns an ascending numbers pattern and exits a clear place finish over wet footing at Churchill. Rosario hops aboard the early-pressing gelding. #9 Native Singer (6-1) debuts with some decent local works and Galluscio can strike with a firster. Dam has tossed three winners. THE PLAYS: #1 to win, Quinella 1-9/8

BEL 5 (MSW, 8f) #4 ACCELERARE (6-1) finished a solid 3rd in his local debut at 5-2 in the slop May 11. Pletcher excels with second timers and he also saddles #1 Sneaky Blowout (5-1). The latter ran well in his 7f bow at the Gulf under today’s rider Johnny V and was the beaten favorite at 8.5f here April 28. #6 Howie’s Tiz (7-2) finished a ½ length in front of Accelerare off a lengthy layoff last time. Rosario strings along and Levine excels 2nd off the shelf. THE PLAYS: #4 to win, Exacta 4/1-6, Exacta 1-6/4  

BEL 6 (Easy Goer, 8.5f) #9 IRSAAL (4-1) earned vastly improved numbers with the addition of lasix in his last pair and he handled wet tracks both times. #4 Doherty (6-1) finished behind Irsaal in his last pair and his numbers continue to rise. #2 Power Broker (7-5) exits a smart wet track win at Churchill. Napravnik sticks and she has been clicking with Baffert recently (Code West, Midnight Lucky). #8 Wabbajack (8-1) owns a rising numbers pattern and sharp, low profile trainer Toner excels with his recent grads trying winners for the first time. THE PLAYS: #9 to win, Exacta 9/2-4-8, Exacta 2-4-8/9   

BEL 7 (G2 True North, 6f) #1 JUSTIN PHILLIP (7-5) has never been better. He exits back-to-back wins and moves up on wet footing. The Asmussen trainee has struck three times here. #1A FAST BULLET (7-5) makes his first start in more than six months. The lightly raced 5yo clearly has physical problems but he is talented when healthy. #2 Laurie’s Rocket (12-1) handles wet footing and is usually good for at least a share at 6f. #5 Caixa Electronica (7-2) won this last year and handles wet tracks. #6 Sage Valley (5-2) eyes five straight and must avoid a bounce. Johnny V hops off in favor of Justin Phillip. THE PLAYS: #1 to win, Exacta 1-5-6/2

BEL 8 (G1 Just a Game, 8T) Overseas invader #5 LAUGH OUT LOUD (15-1) seems to handle any turf footing and horses bred in Great Britain seem to relish less than firm footing when they run in the U.S. She captured a Group II at this trip over soft ground last year. #1 Hungry Island (4-1) and #2 Stephanie’s Kitten (5-2) finished necks apart at Churchill May 4 and both handle various turf conditions. The former has struck three times here and the latter is 3-for-4 at 8f. #7 Better Lucky (12-1) has won in the mud, slop, and firm turf so why not yielding or soft ground? Rosario at a square price. #3 Centre Court (3-1), #4 Dayatthespa (6-1), and #6 Mizdirection (7-2) are a combined 22-for-32 on turf but all seem to prefer firm footing. THE PLAYS: #5 to win, Trifecta 1-2-5/1-2-5/7

BEL 9 (G2 Woody Stephens, 7f) The paper race pace scenario looks demanding and #3 CAPO BASTONE (6-1) would love a speed duel. The Pletcher trainee is an effective late running sprinter and reunites with winning pilot Johnny V. He handles fast/wet dirt and earned his best career number in the G3 Derby Trial last out. #7 Forty Tales (5-1) necked Capo Bastone under the Twin Spires April 27 and is a solid off the pace threat once again.  #1 Declan’s Warrior (6-1) is 2-for-2 at this course/distance and a neck shy of a perfect 5-for-5 career mark. #9 Clearly Now (6-1) is versatile and always runs his race around one turn. #6 Zee Bros (4-1) is lightning quick and new pilot Napravnik is 3-for-4 with Baffert recently. He graduated at seven panels and would appreciate a speed favoring track. #11 Let Em Shine (3-1) is quality SoCal speed for the deadly Maldonado-Kitchingman team. His price is less than ideal and I want to see him prove it in this spot. THE PLAYS: #3 to win, Exacta Box 3-7, Exacta 3-7/1-9  

BEL 10 (G1 Manhattan ‘ Cap, 10f inner turf) #1 POINT OF ENTRY (3-5) has won 6 of his last 7 and the fresh, classy 5yo horse handles firm/yielding turf. He owns running style versatility and is reportedly training better than ever. #5 Optimizer (6-1) is an iron horse and the Lukas trainee handles any type of turf footing. The multiple Grade III winner usually falls a bit short vs. classier rivals but Rosario is up and he always tries hard. #4 Real Solution (12-1) won on heavy ground in Italy and can spring forward in his second U.S. start for Chad Brown. Leaproux is a solid grass rider. THE PLAYS: Trifecta 1/4-5/ALL, Trifecta 1/ALL/4-5

BEL 11 (G1 Belmont Stakes, 12f) 12 of the last 14 Belmont Stakes winners skipped the Preakness (exceptions – Afleet Alex, Point Given). 6 Derby losers since 2000 skipped Preakness and won Belmont (Union Rags, Summer Bird, Jazil, Birdstone, Empire Maker, Commendable) #9 REVOLUTIONARY (9-2) was my Derby top and galloped out in front after landing the show on the first Saturday in May. He won his other three routes including the productive LA Derby and is fresh and ready to turn the tables on Orb. He was 2nd in his lone start here last year and his strong female family should enable him to navigate this marathon trip. He handles fast/wet dirt and reunites with winning pilot Castellano. #3 Overanalyze (12-1) wins every other race and he’s a Belmont Stakes winner if that pattern holds. The 3-time Graded winner captured the G2 Futurity here and owns the right grinding style to succeed at this distance. He reunites with 2-time Belmont Stakes winning rider Johnny V. His late sire Dixie Union was responsible for last year’s Belmont hero Union Rags. #5 Orb (3-1) had his 5-race win streak snapped in a flat Preakness effort from the dead-rail. He is better than his last and continues to train forwardly but this is his third start in five weeks. I have always liked Shug’s colt and maybe my Derby exacta box (Revolutionary-Orb) will come together this time around. #1 Frac Daddy (20-1) is firing bullets and there is talk of him going for the lead from the rail. McPeek has won the Belmont before and I liked him earlier this year. #14 Golden Soul (10-1) chugged up for the place in the Derby and can get a small piece of this. #13 Unlimited Budget (8-1) had her undefeated streak snapped with a Ky Oaks show finish. Female family says no to 12f but she will be in the right stalking spot under Napravnik. #12 Palace Malice (15-1) has not won beyond 6.5f and is eligible for entry level spot. #2 Freedom Child (8-1) freaked in the Peter Pan mud and might get wet footing again. He is training well for this but does not look like a marathon type. #7 Oxbow (5-1) stole the Preakness but won’t get loose this time and he never wins when he fails to set the pace. #6 Incognito (20-1) owns a decent pedigree but is not this quality yet. #10 Will Take Charge (20-1) is a gem of inconsistency. #11 Vyjack (20-1) is not bred for this trip. #4 Giant Finish (30-1) looks like a pace factor at the most. #8 Midnight Taboo (30-1) is lightly raced and overmatched. THE PLAYS: #9 to win, Exacta 9/3-5, Exacta 3-5/9, Trifecta 3-5-9/3-5-9/1-2-3-5-9-12-13-14

BEL 12 (OC-20/1x, 7T) #10 VISIONANDAPRAYER (5-1) ran well for new trainer Englehart in the local slop (off the turf) at 7f May 11. Barn $$ rider Irad Ortiz Jr. sticks and he’s a forwardly placed threat on any footing. #5 Why Not Whiskey (8-1) won his lone try at this course/distance (good ground) last year and needed his 8.5f comeback May 18. Main Track Only entrants #13 Bond Vigilante (3-1) and #14 Ultimate Empire (2-1) must be respected on dirt. The former beat a next out winner March 30 and the latter romped in the local mud May 9. THE PLAYS: #10 to win, Exacta 10/5-13-14, Exacta 5-13-14/10 

BEL 13 (Clm-20k, 8.5f inner turf) #1 NINEINTHENINE (3-1) handles firm/yielding turf and wet dirt. #4 J W Blue (4-1) looks like a threat on any footing for the productive Alvarado/Jacobson team. If this race moves to dirt, keep an eye on Main Track Only entrants #13 Sovereign Default (5-2) and #14 Handsome Harbor (7-2). They both exit place finishes in the local slop. THE PLAYS: #1 to win, Exacta 1/4-13-14, Exacta 4-13-14/1

Double/Pick 3/Pick 4 contenders – in order of preference

Race

1   (5-9-12)
2   (2-7-5-9-4)
3   (9-4-6-13-14)
4   (1-8-9)
5   (4-1-6)
6   (9-4-2-8)
7   (1)
8   (5-1-2-7)
9   (3-7-1-9)
10 (1-5-4)
11 (9-3-5)
12 (10-5-13-14)
13 (1-4-13-14)

Kentucky Derby 2013 Day Analysis Recap

Thanks to everyone for purchasing my Kentucky Derby Day analysis from Churchill Downs last Saturday, May 4. For those who missed it, I have included highlights and analysis below.

Check out my Saturday (May 11) Churchill Downs full card analysis (available now) and Bonus Free Pick (CD 11th race, click view sample) at TodaysRacingDigest.com.

Upcoming full cards:
Churchill (Sat. May 11) – available now!
Pimlico
(Fri. May 17 – Black-Eyed Susan Day)
Pimlico (Sat. May 18 – Preakness Day)
Belmont
(Fri. June 7 – Brooklyn ‘Cap Day)
Belmont (Sat. June 8 – Belmont Stakes Day)
Churchill Saturdays (May 25, June 1, June 15, June 22, June 29)

The Fast Track with Steve Bortstein

For best bets and more, listen to the Fast Track radio show every Saturday and Sunday morning. (10am eastern)

Kentucky Derby Day analysis highlights:
CD 1 Glamour Puss/Apropos Exacta ($14.60)
CD 5 BELLARMINE ($25.60), Trifecta ($317.20)
CD 8 STEPHANIE’S KITTEN ($9.80), Exacta ($28)
Daily Double (race 7-8, $51.40)
Pick 3 (race 7-9, $146)
Pick 3 (race 8-10, $69)
Pick 4 (race 8-11, $358.80)
Pick 5 (race 7-11, $325.10)

Kentucky Derby Day analysis from Churchill Downs (Saturday: 5-4-13)
By Jarrod Horak (horseracingnation.com, pick6blog.com)  
Weather
:  Showers (50% chance). High 61.
Best Bets (races 4, 9, 11, 12).

CD 1 (OC-62.5k/2x, 6f) #2 FIVE STAR MOMMA (4-1) scored in her local debut in 2011 and earned her best number to date in a Keeneland place finish April 6. Terranova excels 2nd off the shelf and I like her early-pressing versatility. #3 Glamour Puss (2-1) has fired Exacta shots in all five starts. She is 2-for-2 at this trip and Rosario rode her perfectly at Keeneland April 11. #1 Apropos (8-5) ran away from entry level foes at Oaklawn March 7 and the clear place finisher came back to score. She wins this with anything resembling her last. THE PLAYS: #2 to win, Exacta 2/1-3, Exacta 2-3/1

CD 2 (OC-75k/1x, 7f) #2 GOMBEY DANCER (7-2) earned a big number in his 6f maiden win at Gulfstream Feb. 3. He disappointed in the G3 Swale but runs well fresh and fired a local bullet April 20. He reunites with winning pilot Lezcano, who is 3-for-3 with Kenneally recently. #8 Slan Abhaile (5-2) went all the way in his 7f bow at the Gulf March 30. Romans has him now and he’s an obvious outside speed threat. #1 River Rocks (3-1) is an inside pace factor at the very least. He won his lone start at this distance. THE PLAYS: #2 to win, Exacta 2/1-8, Exacta 1-8/2

CD 3 (OC-80k/3x, 8.5T) #6 SCREENPLAY (3-1) has a nose for the wire on turf. He is 3-for-4 here, like this trip, and new pilot Rosario has options with the sharp, versatile sort. #5 The Pizza Man (3-1) is a turf win machine. He is 6-for-6 at this distance and won for his trainer Amoss at Fair Grounds March 21. #1 Old Time Hockey (5-2) lands the cozy rail and might be aggressively handled under Gomez. He likes this trip, needed his last, and meets a field without much speed. #2 Prime Cut (12-1) won his lone turf start at Fair Grounds Jan. 27 and has always had a touch of class. #7 Cavalero (10-1) packs a decent late kick and lands sharp turf rider Napravnik. He is 5-for-6 at 8.5f. THE PLAYS: #6 to win, Trifecta 1-5-6/1-2-5-6-7/1-2-5-6-7

CD 4 (MSW, 7f) #5 BAMA BOUND (6-1) broke 12th from the intimidating rail in his Keeneland bow April 7 and he ended up an okay 7th that day. Margolis excels with second time starters and barn $$ rider Bridgmohan sticks. #12 Troubadour Tango (5-1) was the beaten favorite in both synthetic starts and he missed by a head in his career bow. #3 Saint X. (3-1) has hit the board in three straight and the $450k purchase ran into the likes of Oxbow here last fall. #6 Esplendido (8-1) finished a respectable 3rd in his synthetic sprint bow and can improve second time out. THE PLAYS: #5 to win, Exacta 5/3-6-12, Exacta 3-6-12/5  

CD 5 (OC-75k/1x, 8.5f) #4 BELLARMINE (8-1) is getting better for McPeek. He handles any surface and ran well to land the place in his lone conventional dirt try at Gulfstream. #8 Code West (7-5) wisely skipped the Derby and has the class/speed to be a major player here. He figures to make his presence felt throughout for the productive Bejarano/Baffert team. No value here. #10 Ghost Hunter (6-1) might attempt a wire job and should be given extra consideration if a speed bias pops up. He won his 5.5f dirt sprint bow and finished 2nd to synthetic specialist and G3 Lexington hero Winning Cause at Keeneland last time. THE PLAYS: #4 to win, Trifecta 4-10/4-8-10/ALL  

CD 6 (G3 Twin Spires Turf Sprint, 5T) #4 GHOST IS CLEAR (9-2) could sit the right stalk and pounce trip under Rosario. The 2-time turf sprint winner consistently runs his race on any footing and Maker shows a profit synthetic-to-turf. #8 Icon Ike (3-1) is a late running turf sprint win type for the productive Napravnik/Jones team. He could easily make it three straight. #2 Havelock (7-2) just got there off the shelf under Gomez April 13. He has captured half of his ten turf starts at this trip. THE PLAYS: #4 to win, Exacta 4/2-8, Exacta 2-8/4  

CD 7 (G1 Humana Distaff, 7f) #8 BYRAMA (5-1) would have won the G1 Madison with a different trip. She broke slow from the rail and encountered traffic in that neck defeat. Rosario knows her now and she can tag there if able to handle dirt. #1 Jamaican Smoke (5-1) has speed to burn and easily won at this course/distance last May. She ran well in both Graded sprints and might not look back under Leparoux. #6 Aubby K (7-2) won the G2 Inside Information off a lengthy layoff and has had plenty of time to recover. She hails from a profitable, low profile barn. #2 Rumor (5-2) runs well fresh but she is 0-for-2 at seven panels and must prove that she can run a big race away from SoCal. THE PLAYS: #8 to win, Exacta Box 1-8, Exacta 1-8/2-6  

CD 8 (G2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile, 8T) Honest fractions are expected with #3 Daisy Devine, #4 Frontside, #7 Karlovy Vary, and #10 Stopshoppingmaria vying for early position. #6 STEPHANIE’S KITTEN (4-1) has not been seen in more than six months but she is 2-for-2 over the local weeds and owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey have been rolling since Keeneland. She likes this distance and Leparoux does some of his best work with patient turf runners. #8 Marketing Mix (5-2) has not been seen in more than six months but runs well fresh. Gomez rides her well and she clearly has the class to win this for sharp layoff trainer Proctor. #5 Hungry Island (4-1) captured her Keeneland return April 7. She won this event last year and should get pace to chase. #3 Daisy Devine (3-1) is the best of the speed types. She usually fires Exacta shots on turf, except a fading 5th in this event last year. THE PLAYS: #6 to win, Exacta Box 6-8, Exacta 6-8/3-5 

CD 9 (G2 Churchill Downs, 7f) #5 UNBRIDLED’S NOTE (5-1) is 2-for-2 at CD and could sit the garden spot trip behind the speed. Asmussen’s consistent colt ran into crack sprinter Jimmy Creed (twice) at Santa Anita and downhill specialist Mizdirection in the BC turf Sprint. He fits well here. #2 Hierro (10-1) is also 2-for-2 here including the 2012 Derby Trial. He ran well in both starts this year for new trainer Pletcher and could move forward 3rd off the shelf. #9 Delaunay (2-1) is in the form of his life. He shoots for six straight wins and enjoys seven panels. #8 Trinniberg (8-5) flopped in Dubai March 30 and most U.S. horses need more time to recover from the long journey. I’ve never been a big fan of this horse but he likes this trip. THE PLAYS: #5 to win, Exacta 5/2-9, Exacta 2-9/5  

CD 10 (G1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, 9T) #9 POINT OF ENTRY (7-5) looked great beating Animal Kingdom in his Gulfstream return at this trip Feb. 9. The classy turf marathon specialist is fresh and strictly the one to fear if he duplicates his last. #8 Wise Dan (6-5) was good but not great in his G1 Maker’s 46 comeback at Keeneland. He liked 9f in the past but has been a flat mile specialist since last August. He needs to relax early if he expects to win this race. All of his past success at this distance came on dirt and synthetic. THE PLAYS: #9 to win, Exacta 9-8

CD 11 (G1 Kentucky Derby, 10f) #3 REVOLUTIONARY (10-1) has been my top ranked Derby contender since February. He is 3-3 around two turns, has overcome trouble, owns a nice finishing kick, and Borel has won the Derby three times, including the 2010 renewal aboard Super Saver for Pletcher & WinStar Farm. Both CD works were impressive and LA Derby show finisher Departing came back to win the Illinois Derby. #16 Orb (7-2) is also 3-for-3 around two turns and shoots for his fifth win in a row today. He adapts to various pace scenarios and his work and gallop sessions have been impressive. Red hot rider Rosario has booted him home twice and he beat Revolutionary last fall but both are much better now. #5 Normandy Invasion (12-1) is sitting on a career top in his 3rd start off the shelf. He is training aggressively for this and won’t be as far back as expected. Castellano chose him over Revolutionary. His only good races occurred at the Big A. #12 Itsmyluckyday (15-1) is growing on me. He was fast earlier this year and his morning gallops suggest that he is back on top of his game. He can move forward 2nd off the shelf after landing the place behind Orb in the Florida Derby.  #2 Oxbow (20-1) finally draws an inner post but I’m sure Lukas did not want post 2 in Derby. He is best as a free runner and might attempt a wire job under Stevens. #1 Black Onyx (50-1) drew the dreaded rail. He is on the upswing and training well but must work out a trip from the worst possible post. He is a late scratch. #9 Overanalyze (15-1) never runs two alike but Bejarano is on a roll. #14 Verrazano (4-1) has been less dynamic with each passing furlong. The unraced juvenile has accomplished plenty this year but is no longer improving. #8 Goldencents (5-1) must relax at a distance that he is not bred to get. Lightning will not strike twice for O’Neill. #6 Mylute (15-1) would be a great story with Rosie in the irons. #4 Golden Soul (50-1) will be passing tired horses. With Black Onyx now scratched, I will use him underneath in the Trifecta instead. THE PLAYS: #3 to win, Exacta Box 3-16, Exacta 3-16/5-12, Trifecta 3-16/3-5-12-16/2-3-4-5-12-16   

CD 12 (OC-62.5k/2x, 7f) #7 WILD TARGET (4-1) runs well fresh and Rosario hops aboard. He handles seven panels and figures to stalk the pace for sharp trainer Kenneally. #2 Rightfully So (3-1) earned a big number March 30 and the show finisher came back to score. He romped at this course/distance last fall. #4 Seven Lively Sins (12-1) hails from a deadly synthetic-to-dirt barn (Stall). He has won at this course and distance and should offer value. THE PLAYS: #7 to win, Trifecta 2-7/ALL/4  

Double/Pick 3/Pick 4/Pick 5 contenders – in order of preference

Race

1   (2-3-1)
2   (2-8-1)
3   (6-5-1-2-7)
4   (5-12-3-6)
5   (4-8-10)
6   (4-8-2)
7   (8-1-6-2)
8   (6-8-5-3)
9   (5-2-9)
10 (9-8)
11 (3-16-5-12)
12 (7-2-4)