Kentucky Derby 2016 Contenders: Holy Bull Preview Featuring Mohaymen (Video)

My top ranked Kentucky Derby 2016 contender Mohaymen makes his much anticipated 3-year-old debut in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, January 30.

Mohaymen starts his 3yo season in the Holy Bull – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Mohaymen sports an unblemished 3-for-3 record has worked four times at Palm Meadows in preparation for the Holy Bull including a five furlong bullet on Jan. 21.

Six horses will line up in Holy Bull and there is not much pace in the paper race. Mohaymen and Conquest Big E look like the main speed and I would not be surprised if Mike Smith tried to go all the way aboard the latter.

Grade 1 Champagne winner Greenpointcrusader is the other main contender. The race shape of the Holy Bull might play against the patient type and I expect him to get better as the year progresses.

This is my first 2016 Derby contenders update. So far this year, the winners of the Derby Points races have flattered some of the top performers from last year. Flexibility (entered in G3 Withers at Aqueduct Jan 30) flattered Mohaymen with his tally in the Jerome and Mo Tom flattered Kentucky Jockey Club 1-2 finishers Airoforce and Mor Spirit with his win in the LeComte.

Graded Recaps (2016 Derby Points Races)

Smarty Jones (1-18-16, 83 BSF): Discreeetness stalked Gordy Florida and beat his rival by a neck after a lengthy stretch duel. Synchrony rallied from 10th to finish 3rd and odds-on favorite Toews On Ice attended the pace and faded to 6th for Baffert.

G3 LeComte (1-16-16, 88 BSF): Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes show finisher Mo Tom (Uncle Mo) had a troubled beginning, dropped well off the pace, and closed strongly on the outside to win by 2-1/4 lengths over Tom’s Ready, who rallied to the lead in the stretch but could not match strides with the winner. Uncle Walter stalked the pace and ended up an even 3rd.

G3 Sham (1-9-16, 80 BSF): Collected successfully made the turf/dirt move for Baffert. He stalked, pounced, and pulled clear by 1-1/4 lengths as the 3-2 favorite. Let’s Meet in Rio rallied from 8th to land the place and Laoban was best of the rest. This did not look like a strong Derby prep on paper and the speed figure drove that point home.

G3 Jerome (1-2-16, 90 BSF): Remsen runner-up Flexibility was the heavy favorite and did not disappoint his backers with a very easy stalk/pounce score by 4-1/2 lengths. Vorticity dueled on the lead and finished a clear 2nd and In Equality was almost ten lengths ahead of the rest.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2016 Contenders

(1) MOHAYMEN (Tapit – Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union)

Trainer (Kiaran Mclaughlin) – Owner (Shadwell Stable)

Latest Workout: 5f bullet in :59.40 (1/10) at Palm Meadows on Jan 21.

Comments: The $2.2 million yearling purchase went 3-for-3 as a juvenile and rattled off back-to-back graded wins in the G2 Nashua (89 BSF) and G2 Remsen (96 BSF), both at Aqueduct. He is training well for his sophomore debut. He has been my top ranked Derby contender since I started my list last September.

Derby Points (10)

(2) MOR SPIRIT (Eskendereya – Im a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union)

Trainer (Bob Baffert) – Owner (Michael Lund Petersen)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.20 (6/37) at Santa Anita on Jan 28.

Comments: $650k purchase was a clear 2nd (83 BSF) in his 6f Santa Anita debut Sept 27 and returned to graduate at a flat mile Oct 23 second time out (92 BSF). He shipped to Churchill Downs and battled hard throughout in a good runner-up performance in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on Nov 28 and wrapped up his fine juvenile season with a nice win in the G1 Los Al Futurity on Dec 19. He continues to prepare for the Robert Lewis Stakes on Feb 6 and stays put at #2.

Derby Points (14)

(3) BRODY’S CAUSE (Giant’s Causeway – Sweet Breanna, by Sahm)

Trainer (Dale Romans) – Owner (Albaugh Family Stable)

Latest Workouts: 5f in 1:01.16 (11/31) at Gulfstream Park on Jan 24. 4f bullet in :47.74 (1/38) at Gulfstream Park on Jan 18.

Comments: The professional runner looked good from off the pace in back-to-back wins at Churchill (one mile maiden win) and Keeneland (G1 Breeders’ Futurity). He worked his way through traffic to finish a decent 3rd in the BC Juvenile and figures to make a nice late run wherever he shows up on the Derby trail. He is wintering in Florida and remains at #3.

Derby Points (14)

(4) GREENPOINTCRUSADER (Bernardini – Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance)

Trainer (Dominick Schettino) – Owner (St. Elias Stable)

Latest Workout: 5f in 102 (8/16) at Palm Meadows on Jan 24.

Comments: After a pair of solid sprint efforts to begin his career at Saratoga, he put it all together from off the pace in a strong 4-1/2 length victory in the Champagne. The BC Juvenile favorite was too far back early and ended up a better than appears 7th after getting fanned very wide in the lane at Keeneland Oct 31. He exited the BC Juvenile with an eye ulcer, probably caused by flying dirt during the running of the race. He is wintering in Florida and returned to the work tab Dec 28. I fancy his pedigree and he kicks off his 3-year-old season in the Holy Bull. He retains his #4 ranking and I like him as a long term prospect.

Derby Points (10)

(5) CONQUEST BIG E (Tapit – Seeinsbelieven, by Carson City)

Trainer (Mark Casse) – Owner (Conquest Stables, LLC.)

Latest Workout: 4f in :49 (39/102) at Palm Meadows on Jan 24.

Comments: Visually impressive maiden win at Keeneland Oct 2. In the BC Juvenile, he chased the pace from the inside pace and faded to finish 8th. He bounced back with a solid stalk/pounce 2-length flat mile Optional Claiming win at Churchill Downs on Nov 28. He is wintering in Florida and will be the services of Mike Smith in the Holy Bull. He remains at #5.

(6) GIFT BOX (Twirling Candy – Special Me, by Unbridled’s Song)

Trainer (Chad Brown) – Owner (W. S. Farish)

Latest Workouts: 4f in :49 (25/71) at Palm Meadows on Jan 25. 4f in :48.95 (13/74) at Palm Meadows on Jan 19.

Comments: Beat Matt King Coal by a nose at 8.5f (Belmont Park, Oct 3) and was flattered when that one returned to win impressively four weeks later. He fought restraint in the Remsen and ended up an even 3rd in his first stakes try. He returned to the worktab at Palm Meadows Jan 19. He moves up one position.

Derby Points (2)  

(7) NYQUIST (Uncle Mo – Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry)

Trainer (Doug O’Neill) – Owner (Reddam Racing LLC.)

Latest Workout: 6f in 1:15.60 (14/18) at Santa Anita on Jan 24.

Comments: Ran his record to 5-for-5 and wrapped up the 2-year-old title in the BC Juvenile. To his credit, he was farther back than usual and raced wide from post 13. He gamely held off Swipe for the fourth consecutive race but the final clocking was more than a second slower than filly counterpart Songbird. He seems like a miler type but keeps on winning. At this stage he is in great shape in regards to Derby points and is preparing to make his first 2016 start in the G2 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita on February 15. He is up one spot.

Derby Points (30)

(8) AIROFORCE (Colonel John – Chocolate Pop, by Cuvee)

Trainer (Mark Casse) – Owner (John C. Oxley)

Latest Workout: 4f in :48 (3/71) at Palm Meadows on Jan 25.

Comments: His first three turf races produced two wins (MSW, G3 Bourbon) and a second (G1 BC Juvenile Turf). They switched to dirt (wet track) in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Nov 28 and he wrapped up his juvenile campaign with a victory over subsequent graded stakes winners Mor Spirit (Los Al Futurity) and Mo Tom (LeComte). He returned to the worktab Jan 11 but missed his next work with an elevated temperature. He resumed morning activity Jan 25. He makes his debut on the list.

Derby Points (10)

(9) EXAGGERATOR (Curlin – Dawn Raid, by Vindication)

Trainer (Keith Desormeaux) – Owner (Big Chief Racing, LLC)

Latest Workout: 7f in 1:25.80 (2/5) from the gate at Santa Anita on Jan 23.

Comments: He had a busy juvenile campaign with six starts and wins in the G2 Saratoga Special and G3 Delta Jackpot. He was also 2nd in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity and 4th in the G1 BC Juvenile. He is expected to begin his Derby March in the San Vicente. He is a new addition to the list.

Derby Points (16)

(10) SYNCHRONY (Tapit – Brownie Points, by Forest Wildcat)

Trainer (Donnie K Von Hemel) – Owner (Pin Oak Stable)

Comments: After finishing 2nd in his career debut, he won back-to-back races at Keeneland and Churchill to end his 2-year-old season. He put in a nice late run to finish 3rd in the Smarty Jones and was gaining on the top two in a promising effort at Oaklawn Jan 18. He is new to the list and might go next in the Southwest in Feb 15.

Derby Points (2)

(11) MATT KING COAL (Cool Coal Man – Donna Marie, by Came Home)

Trainer (Linda Rice) – Owner (Lady Sheila Stable)

Comments: Earned two of the better juvenile speed figures in a clear place finish at 8.5 furlongs at Belmont Oct 3 (93 BSF) and a 96 BSF for his easy flat mile wire job maiden win at that same venue Oct 29. Following a respiratory infection, he spiked a fever and missed the G3 Jerome on Jan 3. He is getting a 4-6 week vacation on the farm and they hope to have him back for the G3 Gotham at Aqueduct March 5. He remains glued to the bottom of the list.

Honorable Mention: (12) Flexibility, (13) Mo Tom, (14) Zulu, (15) Sail Ahoy, (16) I Will Score, (17) Rafting, (18) Street Vision, (19) Swipe, (20) Seymourdini

Video Race of the Week: G2 San Pasqual Featuring California Chrome

After a holiday break, the video race of the week returns for the first time in 2016 with the Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes at Santa Anita Park.

Kentucky Derby 2016 Contenders: Mohaymen Ends Year at Number 1

When I started my Kentucky Derby 2016 contenders list on September 30, Mohaymen was my top ranked horse and three months later he finishes 2015 on top of the heap.

Mohaymen ends the year at #1 – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Mohaymen is a perfect-3-for-3 and is spending the winter in Florida. He returned to the worktab at Palm Meadows on Dec 31 and is expected to make his next start in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Jan 30.

This is what my first list looked like on 9-30-15: (1) Mohaymen, (2) Seymourdini, (3) Mor Spirit, (4) Ralis, (5) Street Vision, (6) Sail Ahoy, (7) Conquest Big E, (8) I Will Score, (9) Justin Squared, (10) Greenpointcrusader, (11) Brody’s Cause.

As you can see, eight of my original eleven are still part of the list including my current top five (Mohaymen, Mor Spirit, Brody’s Cause, Greenpointcrusader, Conquest Big E).

In November, I posted a video about Kentucky Derby Pool 1 future wager and suggested playing Conquest Big E, Greenpointcrusader, and Sail Ahoy. For the first ever sire wager, I said to play Bernardini, Eskendereya, and Giant’s Causeway. We will see how all of that plays out next spring.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2016 Contenders

(1) MOHAYMEN (Tapit – Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union)

Trainer (Kiaran Mclaughlin) – Owner (Shadwell Stable)

Latest Workout: 4f in :49.45 (36/76) at Palm Meadows on Dec 31.

Comments: The $2.2 million yearling purchase beat promising $900k purchase Seymourdini at six furlongs in his Belmont Park debut on 9-19-15 (87 BSF). In the G2 Nashua on Nov 4 at Aqueduct, he stalked wide, took a clear lead in the stretch, and won nicely by 1.75 lengths (89 BSF) under a hand drive. He wrapped up his juvenile campaign with an effortless stalk/pounce win by 1.5 lengths (96 BSF) in the G2 Remsen at Aqueduct on Nov 28. He retains the top spot, returned to the work tab Dec 31, and might make his sophomore bow in the G2 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on January 30.

Derby Points (10)  

(2) MOR SPIRIT (Eskendereya – Im a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union)

Trainer (Bob Baffert) – Owner (Michael Lund Petersen)

Comments: $650k purchase had a slow start, made a nice inside middle move, took the lead, and ended up a clear 2nd (83 BSF) in his 6f Santa Anita debut Sept 27. He returned at a flat mile Oct 23 and cantered to an easy win (92 BSF) as the 1-2 favorite (geared down under Gary Stevens). He shipped to Churchill Downs and battled hard throughout in a good runner-up performance in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on Nov 28. He wrapped up his fine juvenile season with a win in the G1 Los Al Futurity on Dec 19. He stays put at #2.
Derby Points (14)

(3) BRODY’S CAUSE (Giant’s Causeway – Sweet Breanna, by Sahm)

Trainer (Dale Romans) – Owner (Albaugh Family Stable)

Comments: Looked great from off the pace in back-to-back wins at Churchill (one mile maiden win) and Keeneland (G1 Breeders’ Futurity). He worked his way through traffic to finish a decent 3rd in the BC Juvenile and continues to look like a solid stretch factor on the Derby trail. He remains at #3.
Derby Points (14)

(4) GREENPOINTCRUSADER (Bernardini – Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance)

Trainer (Dominick Schettino) – Owner (St. Elias Stable)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:02.65 (7/8) at Palm Meadows on Dec 28.

Comments: Put it all together from off the pace in a strong 4-1/2 length victory in the Champagne. I really like his pedigree and he figures to get better with age. The BC Juvenile favorite was too far back early and ended up a better than appears 7th after getting fanned very wide in the lane at Keeneland Oct 31. He exited the BC Juvenile with an eye ulcer, probably caused by flying dirt during the running of the race. He is wintering in Florida and returned to the work tab Dec 28.  He retains his #4 ranking and I still like him as a long term prospect.

Derby Points (10)

(5) CONQUEST BIG E (Tapit – Seeinsbelieven, by Carson City)

Trainer (Mark Casse) – Owner (Conquest Stables, LLC.)

Latest Workout: 5f bullet in :48 (1/76) at Palm Meadows on Dec 31.

Comments: Visually impressive maiden win at Keeneland Oct 2. In the BC Juvenile, he chased the pace from the inside pace and faded to finish 8th. He bounced back with a solid stalk/pounce 2-length flat mile Optional Claiming win at Churchill Downs on Nov 28. He is wintering in Florida and remains at #5.

(6) SEYMOURDINI (Bernardini – Graeme Six, by Graeme Hall)

Trainer (Linda Rice) – Owner (Iris Smith Stable)

Comments: $900k purchase battled with Mohaymen throughout and ended up 2nd in his debut. He was clearly second best as the favorite (beaten 1/2 length) in a 6f special weight sprint at Belmont Park Oct 28 on a muddy (sealed) racetrack. In a one mile straight maiden race at Aqueduct on Nov 22, he controlled the pace as the heavy favorite and won by nine lengths under hand urging. He stays put at #6.

(7) GIFT BOX (Twirling Candy – Special Me, by Unbridled’s Song)

Trainer (Chad Brown) – Owner (W. S. Farish)

Comments: Beat Matt King Coal by a nose at 8.5f (Belmont Park, Oct 3) and was flattered when that one returned to win impressively four weeks later. He fought restraint in the Remsen and ended up an even 3rd in his first stakes try. He ends the year at #7.

Derby Points (2)   

(9) NYQUIST (Uncle Mo – Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry)

Trainer (Doug O’Neill) – Owner (Reddam Racing LLC.)

Latest Workout: 4f in :48.40 (27/110) at Santa Anita on Dec 27.

Comments: Ran his record to 5-for-5 and wrapped up the 2-year-old title in the BC Juvenile. To his credit, he was farther back than usual and raced wide from post 13. He gamely held off Swipe for the fourth consecutive race but the final clocking was more than a second slower than filly counterpart Songbird once again. He still seems like a miler type but keeps on winning. At this stage he is in great shape in regards to Derby points and is expected to have two 2016 preps prior to the first Saturday in May. The deserving juvenile champ returned to the work tab Dec 19, moves up one spot, and is expected to make his 2016 debut in the G2 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita on February 15. The plan is to make his final Derby prep in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream.

Derby Points (30)

(9) SAIL AHOY (Bernardini – Matlacha Pass, by Seeking the Gold)

Trainer (Shug McGaughey) – Owner (Phipps Stable)

Comments: He did not run a complete race from start to finish and ended up an even 4th in the Champagne. He was last for much of the race and rallied for the show (missed 2nd by a neck) in the G2 Nashua. In the Remsen, he made a decent run from off the pace but flattened out and ended up 4th.  He moves up one spot to #9.

Derby Points (2)

(10) STREET VISION (Street Sense – Emmy’s Storm, by Stormy Atlantic)

Trainer (Mark Glatt) – Owner (Norman Stables, LLC.)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00 (6/39) at Santa Anita on Dec 28.

Comments: Could not match strides with Toews On Ice in the Speakeasy (six furlongs) at Santa Anita Oct 18 but was clearly second best. He failed to threaten when 5th of 7 in the G3 Bob Hope (7f @ DMR on Nov 14), a race in which the top three dominated throughout (Toews On Ice, Mac Daddy Mac, I’malreadythere). I believe he will improve around two turns and hope he gets a chance to route in the near future. He finishes 2015 at #10.

(11) MATT KING COAL (Cool Coal Man – Donna Marie, by Came Home)

Trainer (Linda Rice) – Owner (Lady Sheila Stable)

Comments: Owns two of the better juvenile speed figures this year in a clear place finish at 8.5 furlongs at Belmont Oct 3 (93 BSF) and a 96 BSF for his easy flat mile wire job maiden win at that same venue Oct 29. Following a respiratory infection, he spiked a fever and will miss the G3 Jerome on Jan 3. He will get a 4-6 week vacation on the farm. He drops to the bottom of the list.

Honorable Mention: (12) Exaggerator, (13) Airoforce, (14) Toews On Ice, (15) Swipe, (16) I Will Score, (17) Riker, (18) Rafting, (19) Flexibility, (20) Mac Daddy Mac