Archive for October, 2015

Greenpointcrusader can win another Grade 1 in BC Juvenile

Saturday’s 9th race (4:10pm ET) from Keeneland is the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile for 2-year-olds traveling a mile and a sixteenth on the main track.

#3 GREENPOINTCRUSADER (4-1) owns an ascending numbers pattern and looked great in the G1 Champagne. He’s bred to be a good one and should continue to develop.

BC Juvenile 2015 odds

#7 Brody’s Cause (7-2) is 2-for-2 on dirt and packed a strong late punch in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity here Oct 3.

#9 Exaggerator (6-1) had the lead in the lane off a layoff but could not hold off Brody’s Cause in the aforementioned Breeders’ Futurity. He could be fitter this time.

#1 Conquest Big E (30-1) was 2nd to Brody’s Cause in his bow and looked good visually in his course/distance maiden win Oct 2. He’s training well and has a bright future. We shall see if he is ready for prime time.

#13 Nyquist (9-2) is 4-for-4 but his numbers dropped in his last two at 7f and a mile and a sixteenth.

#12 Swipe (15-1) lost to Nyquist in his last three but is closing the gap as distances increase.

THE PLAYS:

$17 to win #3 

$2 Exacta 3/1-7-9 ($6)

$2 Exacta 1-7-9/3($6)

.50 cent Trifecta 3-7/1-3-7-9/1-3-7-9-12-13 ($12)

.10 cent Superfecta 3-7-9/ALL/1-3-7-9/12-13 ($19.80)    

analysis by Jarrod Horak

Saturday Breeders Cup full card October 31 (click add to cart)$15

Add to Cart
***Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup full card anaylsis from Keeneland includes Pick 5, Pick 4, and Pick 6 tickets.

2015 Full Card Schedule
I am offering the following full cards for $10/each at therunawayhorse.com:BREEDERS’ CUP Saturday from KEENELAND (Oct 31, $15).DEL MAR full card weekends (Nov 1, Nov 7-8, Nov 14-15, Nov 21-22, Nov 28-29).

Breeders’ Cup Friday Full Card Recap from Keeneland (10-30-15)

Keeneland full card analysis for Breeders’ Cup Friday (10-30-15)
By Jarrod Horak (horseracingnation.com, pick6blog.com, therunawayhorse.com)
Weather: Sunny. High 60. Best Bets (races 1, 7, 9)
Pick 5, Pick 4, and Pick 6 Tickets included in .pdf file

HIGHLIGHTS (winning wagers based on $2 payouts):
KEE 6 BC Juvenile Turf – HIT IT A BOMB ($16.40), Exacta ($83.40), Trifecta ($1,471)
Double (Races 5-6, $226.80)
Pick 3 (Races 5-7, $165.20)
KEE 8  BC Juvenile Fillies Turf – Catch a Glimpse/Alice Springs Exacta ($81.20)
Pick 3 ($2 payout Races 6-8, $235.00)
KEE 9 BC Distaff – STOPCHARGINGMARIA (Best Bet #3, $16.20)
Double (Races 8-9, $125.00)
Pick 3 (Races 7-9 ($203.40)
Pick 3 (Races 8-10, $1,051.40)

Saturday Breeders Cup full card october 31 (click add to cart)$15

Add to Cart
***Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup full card anaylsis from Keeneland includes Pick 5, Pick 4, and Pick 6 tickets.

2015 Full Card Schedule

I am offering the following full cards for $10/each at therunawayhorse.com:

BREEDERS’ CUP Saturday from KEENELAND (Oct 31, $15).

DEL MAR full card weekends (Nov 1, Nov 7-8, Nov 14-15, Nov 21-22, Nov 28-29).

Breeders’ Cup Friday Analysis (10-30-15)

KEE 1 (OC-80k, 6f) #7 CANDIP (7-2) fired Exacta shots in his last four and earned a quality number finishing 2nd to BC Sprint entrant Ivan Fallunovalot in the RP Sprint Cup Sept 27. Tomlinson is sending out live runners here (8-2-3-2) and an outside early/pressing trip at his favorite distance is expected. #5 Pablo Del Monte (5-2) turns back and adds blinkers. He might be able to stalk the pace. #6 Helooksthepart (8-1) is fresh and gets a nice pace setup in the paper race. THE PLAYS: #7 to win, Exacta 7/5-6, Exacta 5-6/7

KEE 2 (Alw-70k, 6f) #9 SMOOTH CARAMEL (4-1) exits back-to-back wins including a comfortable course/distance tally vs. $50 (NW2L) claimers Oct 15. She’ll have to push her number up a few points to win again but that is certainly possible. #1 Street Blush (5-1) won her long ago debut at the Spa and the show finisher was a next out winner. Nicks has her now and he’s having a fine year. #5 Titanium (3-1) was 2nd here at seven panels Oct 16 and that was her best effort since pairing-up strong Churchill wins May 29 and June 26. #6 Mercer Mill Mae (4-1) exits a decent place finish in an extended sprint at Churchill and Lovell has sent out five starters and four Exacta finishers here. #7 Chanteline (7-2) has been part of the Trifecta in all six outings. THE PLAYS: #9 to win, Trifecta 1-9/1-5-6-7-9/1-5-6-7-9

KEE 3 (OC-62.5k, 7f) #7 ALLIED AIR RAID (7-2) was my G2 Super Derby top and he ended up an even 3rd that day. He can sprint or route and and is always part of the Trifecta (7-2-3-2). #6 Texas Two Step (7-2) is 0-for-3 this year but might be effective today because his last win was off a similar April/October layoff in a local sprint last year. #9 The Truth Or Else (3-1) exits a disappointing 7th of 12 in the G3 Oklahoma Derby. In his last 10 outings, he lost 8 stakes and won a maiden race and optional claiming race, both at Belmont. THE PLAYS: #7 to win, Exacta 7/6-9, Exacta 6-9/7

KEE 4 (Bryan Station, 9T) #3 FUNDAMENTAL (4-1) packs a nice punch at nine furlongs for Brown. His numbers started rising with the addition of blinkers Aug 16 and he might be sitting on a new top 3rd off the shelf. #10 Billy’s Star (8-1) ran well in back-to-back Woodbine all-weather stakes and was a rallying 3rd in a turf route before that. He looks interesting for Attfield. #9 Closing Bell (5-2) bettered his number in all five starts culminating in the Dueling Grounds Derby Sept 14. Mott’s $400k purchase is a fresh late threat. #2 Tale of Life (9-2) never lifted a hoof in a puzzling effort in the G3 Hill Prince. He looked good in his winning U.S. bow at the Spa and can bounce back for Motion. THE PLAYS: #3 to win, Exacta 3/2-9-10, Exacta 2-9-10/3

KEE 5 (G2 Fayette, 9f) #6 PROTONICO (3-1) sometimes throws in clunkers like the G1 Woodward, G1 Donn, and G2 PA Derby, but he is also brilliant at times (G3 Smarty Jones, G3 Discovery, G3 Ben Ali, G2 Alysheba). His Woodward clunker might throw handicappers off the scent and his smart Ben Ali score here would put him in the hunt throughout. #3 Race Day (10-1) exits back-to-back disappointing efforts in the G3 Salvator Mile and G1 Forego. He won the G2 Oaklawn ‘Cap at this distance April 11 and fits with these on his best day. #5 Hoppertunity (7-2) usually takes money and typically tries hard but has dropped six straight. #9 Commissioner (5-1) won the G3 Skip Away and G3 Pimlico Special earlier this year, both following a layoff, so we know he runs well fresh. #11 Eagle (20-1) is 2-for-2 here and the number he earned last time puts him ballpark. THE PLAYS: #6 to win, Trifecta Key 6/3-5-9-11, Trifecta 3-5-9-11/6/3-5-9-11, Trifecta 3-5-9-11/3-5-9-11/6

KEE 6 (BC Juvenile Turf, 8T) #14 HIT A BOMB (9-2) won both starts in Ireland and beat 21 foes in his seven furlong turf sprint debut (83 Racing Post Rating). He cruised on all-weather ground at seven panels Oct 9 (110 Racing Post Rating) and Aidan O’Brien’s Kentucky-bred should love this trip (War Front/Sadler’s Wells). #13 Cymric (7-2) missed by a neck in a Group 1 at this distance Oct 4 for Gosden and earned a quality 112 Racing Post Rating. He’s bred for U.S. turf (Kitten’s Joy/Unbridled’s Song). #8 Airoforce (4-1) won his turf sprint bow on firm ground at Kentucky Downs and scored from post 13 on yielding turf in the G3 Bourbon here Oct 4. #6 Birchwood (12-1) is a 3-time overseas turf sprint winner but each of those wins were accomplished on straight courses (He is 0-for-2 on courses with turns). He has quality connections and fits on Racing Post Ratings (105-107-108). #7 Ray’s the Bar (20-1) beat a dozen in his overseas turf sprint bow (82 Racing Post Rating) and finished a troubled 3rd in the G3 Pilgrim for Brown, who also saddles #12 Camelot Kitten (12-1). The latter earned the best last race U.S. number in his debut maiden win at Belmont Oct 18. #4 Shogun (12-1) finished 6th, 1.75 lengths behind Cymric in a Group 1 at Longchamp Oct 3. He adds lasix and blinkers for O’Brien and he drew a favorable post position. THE PLAYS: #14 to win, Exacta 14/8-13, Exacta 8-13/14, Trifecta 13-14/6-8-13-14/4-6-7-8-12-13-14, Superfecta 14/8-13/8-13/ALL, Superfecta 14/8-13/ALL/8-13, Superfecta 14/ALL/8-13/8-13

KEE 7 (BC Dirt Mile, 8f) #1 RED VINE (6-1) ran on nicely in the G2 Kelso but was never going to catch lone speed Appealing Tale on a wet track at Belmont that day. He has turned the corner on dirt and this is the right two turn distance. #5 Lea (8-1) is a classy, consistent dirt and turf performer from a flat mile to ten furlongs. He is fresh, 3-for-3 at this distance, and is training well for this. #3 Liam’s Map (1-1) is the best horse on numbers but should have entered the Classic because the race shape would have flattered him in that race and  the easy way out does not always work. #8 Wicked Strong (5-1) ran his best race this year in the G1 JCGC. He’s 0-for-7 this year and is worth using underneath at the very least. #9 Tapiture (10-1) was 2nd in this event last year and got back on the beam in a game victory in the G3 Ack Ack Sept 26. He is training well for this and might be getting good again at the right time. #10 Valid (10-1 is a consistent flat mile specialist (10-4-1-3) with tactical speed. THE PLAYS: #1 to win, Exacta 1/3-5-8, Exacta 3-5-8/1, Trifecta 1-5/1-3-5-8/1-3-5-8-9-10, Superfecta 1/3-5-8/3-5-8/ALL, Superfecta 1/3-5-8/ALL/3-5-8, Superfecta 1/ALL/3-5-8/3-5-8

KEE 8 (BC Juvenile Fillies Turf) #3 ALICE SPRINGS (6-1) was only 1.25 lengths behind Illuminate at 6f Sept 26 and came back to cruise vs. eleven foes at seven furlongs a week later (both under Ryan Moore). She drew well, is bred to go this far, and is on the improve for O’Brien. #14 Last Waltz (20-1) is now trained by Chad Brown and her Racing Post Rating advanced in all four outings (102-98-83-74). #9 Nemoralia (15-1) was 2nd in the G1 Frizette (sloppy track) and beat 18 foes in an overseas turf sprint Sept 10 (94 Racing Post Rating). I always respect Noseda when he enters a horse in the U.S. #4 Catch a Glimpse (5-1) exits back-to-back Woodbine turf wire jobs and the 2-3 finishers from the G2 Natalma both came back to score. #8 Harmonize (7-2) is versatile, training well, and a nose away from being undefeated. #10 Illuminate (9-2) brings strong overseas turf sprint form to the table for Hannon and her Racing Post Ratings are strong (112-107-107-85). THE PLAYS: #3 to win, Exacta 3/4-9-14, Exacta 4-9-14/3, Trifecta 3-14/3-4-8-9-10-14/3-4-8-9-10-14, Superfecta 3/9-14/9-14/ALL, Superfecta 3/9-14/ALL/9-14, Superfecta 3/ALL/9-14/9-14

KEE 9 (BC Distaff, 9f) #4 STOPCHARGINGMARIA (5-1) dueled and ended up 4th as the favorite in the G1 Personal Ensign, and that was the first time she finished out of the top three since April 2014. She runs well fresh, finished strong in a local work Oct 24, and should revert to patient tactics with other speed signed up. #14 Sheer Drama (9-2) is fresh and on top of her game. She exits back-to-back wins the G1 Del ‘Cap and G1 Personal Ensign and vanquished foes Frivolous and Got Lucky both returned to win stakes events. #12 Got Lucky (6-1) was one I was following last year and she really turned the corner this year with wins in the G3 Molly Pitcher at Monmouth and G1 Spinster here Oct 4. #7 Wedding Toast (4-1) is a sharp early factor for McLaughlin but she is best at Belmont and should get pace pressure. #10 Yahilwa (20-1) was 2nd in the Spinster and continues to train forwardly. She can spice up the exotics. #2 Frivolous (30-1) is talented enough to compete with these on her best day but she prefers Churchill Downs. The sophomore fillies have been beating each other all year and seem a cut below the best (3YO Filles: #8 Curalina, #1 I’m a Chatterbox, #3 Salama, #9 Stellar Wind, #5 Calamity Kate, #15 Peace and War). #11 Untapable is sick and has been scratched. THE PLAYS: #4 to win, Exacta 4/12-14, Exacta 12-14/4, Trifecta 4-12-14/4-7-10-12-14/4-7-10-12-14, Superfecta 4/12-14/12-14/ALL, 4/12-14/ALL/12-14, 4/ALL/12-14/12-14

KEE 10 (G2 Marathon, 14f) #14 ZAMBIAN DREAM  (20-1) continues to improve in the U.S. for Pletcher. He was 2nd (six clear of 3rd) to G2 Fayette entrant Eagle here Oct 11 and was 2nd in the G1 Chilean Derby (12f turf) last year. #4 Neck ‘n Neck (3-1), #9 Majestic Harbor (7-2), and #1 For Greater Glory (6-1) finished 1-2-3 in the G3 Greenwood Cup (12f dirt) at Parx Sept 7. #13 Bailoutbobby (6-1) might be a good underneath key. He is 0-for-10 this year but in his two longest dirt races this year he was 2nd in the G3 Cougar II and 2nd in the G3 Tokyo City, both at twelve furlongs in SoCal. THE PLAYS: #14 to win, Exacta 1-4-9-14/13, Trifecta 1-4-9-14/ALL/13, Superfecta 1-4-9-14/ALL/1-4-9-14/13

Double/Pick 3/Pick 4/Pick 5/Pick 6 contenders – in order of preference
1    (7-5-6)
2    (9-1-5-6-7)
3    (7-6-9)
4    (3-10-9-2)
5    (6-3-5-9-11)
6    (14-13-8-6-7-12-4)
7    (1-5-3-8-9-10)
8    (3-14-9-4-8-10)
9    (4-14-12-7)
10 (14-4-9-1-13)

Alice Springs an interesting contender in BC Juvenile Fillies Turf

Friday’s 8th race (4:50pm ET) from Keeneland is the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf for 2-year-old fillies traveling one mile on the turf course.

#3 ALICE SPRINGS (6-1) was only 1.25 lengths behind Illuminate at 6f Sept 26 and came back to cruise vs. eleven foes at seven furlongs a week later (both under Ryan Moore). She drew well, is bred to go this far, and is on the improve for O’Brien.

BC JF Turf 2015

#14 Last Waltz (20-1) is now trained by Chad Brown and her Racing Post Rating advanced in all four outings (102-98-83-74).

#9 Nemoralia (15-1) was 2nd in the G1 Frizette (sloppy track) and beat 18 foes in an overseas turf sprint Sept 10 (94 Racing Post Rating). I always respect Noseda when he enters a horse in the U.S.

#4 Catch a Glimpse (5-1) exits back-to-back Woodbine turf wire jobs and the 2-3 finishers from the G2 Natalma both came back to score.

#8 Harmonize (7-2) is versatile, training well, and a nose away from being undefeated.

#10 Illuminate (9-2) brings strong overseas turf sprint form to the table for Hannon and her Racing Post Ratings are strong (112-107-107-85).

THE PLAYS:

$12 to win #3

$2 Exacta 3/4-9-14 ($6)

$2 Exacta 4-9-14/3 ($6)

.50 cent Trifecta 3-14/3-4-8-9-10-14/3-4-8-9-10-14 ($20)

.10 cent Superfecta 3/9-14/9-14/ALL ($2.20)

.10 cent Superfecta 3/9-14/ALL/9-14($2.20)

.10 cent Superfecta 3/ALL/9-14/9-14 ($2.20)

analysis by Jarrod Horak

BREEDERS’ CUP FULL CARDS NOW AVAILABLE

BREEDERS’ CUP FRIDAY (10-30-15) & SATURDAY (10-31-15) full cards from KEENELAND are now available to purchase at:

The Runaway Horse

Today’s Racing Digest

Upcoming full cards: DEL MAR full card weekends begin Sunday, November 1.

*** Every full card includes suggested Pick 5, Early Pick 4, Pick 6, and Late Pick 4 spread tickets.

Weekend full card recaps with highlights are posted on The Runaway Horse What You Missed page

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile 2015 Video Preview Featuring Nyquist & Greenpointcrusader

Kentucky Derby 2016 Contenders: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Preview

The next and biggest Kentucky Derby 2016 points race for freshmen is the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Saturday, October 31.

There were nineteen horses pre-entered earlier this week including G1 Frontrunner winner and possible favorite Nyquist,  G1 Champagne hero Greenpointcrusader, and G1 Breeders’ Futurity winner Brody’s Cause.

Nyquist

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Nyquist is a perfect 4-for-4 but his margin of victory and speed figure dropped over a route of ground in the FrontRunner. The early/pressing type obviously has talent but could be vulnerable shipping across country and facing better competition.

Greenpointcrusader looked great in the Champagne (one turn mile) on wet ground. He still must prove himself around two turns but he is bred to adore the added real estate.

Since the Breeders’ Cup is at Keeneland this year, Brody’s Cause might have the edge with a good looking stakes win over the track. He needs pace help.

Breeders’ Futurity runner up Exaggerator should be in a nice position stalking the pace and will get a jump on the late runners. He can move up in his second start off a layoff for Keith Desormeaux, who saddled last year’s BC Juvenile winner Texas Red.

Conquest Big E is an interesting contender at a price for Mark Casse. He was beaten a length by Brody’s Cause in his bow and returned to break his maiden in visually impressive fashion at Keeneland. He might lack the experience to win a race like the BC Juvenile but clearly has a ton of raw ability and is an excellent long-range Derby prospect.

The Juvenile field also includes G3 Iroquois winner Cocked and Loaded and G3 Grey wire-to-wire winner Riker. Both have to step up to compete here and the latter tries conventional dirt for the first time. BC JUVENILE PRE-ENTRIES:

bc juvenile entries 1bc juvenile entries 2

Graded Recaps (Derby Points Races)

G3 Iroquois (10-12-15, 81 BSF): Cocked and Loaded stalked, pounced, and kicked clear to win by 2-lengths over Rated R Superstar, Unbridled Outlaw, and Conquest Windycity. The Iroquois has not been a productive race in regards to Derby contenders in recent years.

G1 FrontRunner (10-26-15, 79 BSF): American Pharoah won the FrontRunner last year. This time around, Nyquist was the overwhelming favorite and he remained undefeated with yet another win over Swipe. His margin of victory dipped and talented juvenile filly Songbird ran much faster in the G1 Chandelier. Nyquist looks like a miler and did not make my initial Derby list on 9-30-15.

G1 Champagne (10-3-15, 94 BSF): The track was sloppy (sealed). Greenpointcrusader, #10 on my first Derby rankings list, rallied from 6th to post an easy 4.5 length win under Joe Bravo. Longshot Sunny Ridge stalked, pounced, took the lead, and finished a couple lengths clear of Portfolio Manager. Two other Champagne runners were on the Derby list, Sail Ahoy and Ralis. The former ended up an even 4th and should improve around two turns next year for patient trainer Shug McGaughey. The latter pressed and faded as the beaten favorite in a puzzling performance.

G1 Breeders’ Futurity (10-3-15, 88 BSF): This important local prep for the BC Juvenile might have a major impact on the big race Oct 31. Brody’s Cause went 10th to first in a visually impressive one-length win over post time favorite Exaggerator. Rated R Superstar was 3rd and Sicksstatelydude rounded out the top four.

G3 Grey (10-4-15, 84 BSF): Riker entered the race undefeated and kept his perfect record intact with a comfortable wire job win over four rivals. He is a proven all-weather performer at Woodbine and will try to take his show on the road in the BC Juvenile.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2016 Contenders

(1) MOHAYMEN (Tapit – Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union)mohaymen silks

Trainer (Kiaran Mclaughlin) – Owner (Shadwell Stable)

Latest Workouts: 5f bullet in :59.81 (1/12) at Belmont Park on Oct 14. A 4f breeze in :49.98 (15/22) at Belmont Park on Oct 21.

Comments: The $2.2 million yearling purchase was a determined 1/2 length winner (87 BSF) at six furlongs in his Belmont Park debut on 9-19-15. Dam Justwhistledixie won the G2 Davona Dale and G2 Bonnie Miss at GP in 2009. The G2 Nashua on Nov 4 at Aqueduct is next. He retains the top spot on my list.

(2) MOR SPIRIT (Eskendereya – Im a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union) mor spirit silks

Trainer (Bob Baffert) – Owner (Michael Lund Petersen)

Comments: $650k purchase had a slow start, made a nice inside middle move, took the lead, and ended up a clear 2nd (83 BSF) in his 6f Santa Anita debut Sept 27. He returned at a flat mile Oct 23 and cantered to an easy win as the 1-2 favorite (geared down under Gary Stevens). He moves up one spot.

(3) GREENPOINTCRUSADER (Bernardini – Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance) greenpointcrusader silks

Trainer (Dominick Schettino) – Owner (St. Elias Stable)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.80 (9/17) at Keeneland on Oct 19.

Comments: Put it all together from off the pace in a strong 4-1/2 length victory in the Champagne. I really like his pedigree and he figures to get better with age. He’s pre-entered in the BC Juvenile. He was #10 on my first list.

Derby Points (10)

(4) BRODY’S CAUSE (Giant’s Causeway – Sweet Breanna, by Sahm) brody's cause silks

Trainer (Dale Romans) – Owner (Albaugh Family Stable)
Latest Workout: 5f breeze in 1:01.80 (18/59) at Churchill Downs Oct 17.

Comments: Looked great from off the pace in back-to-back wins at Churchill (one mile maiden win) and Keeneland (G1 Breeders’ Futurity). He’s pre-entered in the BC Juvenile and looks like a solid contender from the back of the pack.  He was #11 on my first list at the end of September.

Derby Points (10)

(5) CONQUEST BIG E (Tapit – Seeinsbelieven, by Carson City) conquest big e silks

Trainer (Mark Casse) – Owner (Conquest Stables, LLC.)

Latest Workouts: 5f in 1:00 (2/40) at Churchill Downs Oct 16. Breezed 4f in :48.40 (9/49) at Churchill Downs Oct 23 (geared down).

Comments: Visually impressive maiden win at Keeneland Oct 2. He is still learning and appears to have a bright future. He’s pre-entered in the BC Juvenile. He moves up from #7.

(6) SAIL AHOY (Bernardini – Matlacha Pass, by Seeking the Gold) sail ahoy silks

Trainer (Shug McGaughey) – Owner (Phipps Stable)

Latest Workout: 4f breeze in :49.32 (12/36) at Belmont Park on Oct 19.

Comments: He did not run a complete race from start to finish and ended up an even 4th in the Champagne. He figures to improve around two turns and should get better next year for patient trainer Shug McGaughey, who saddled Kentucky Derby winner Orb in 2012. He stays put at #6.

Derby Points (1)

(7) STREET VISION (Street Sense – Emmy’s Storm, by Stormy Atlantic) street vision silks

Trainer (Mark Glatt) – Owner (Norman Stables, LLC.)

Comments: Could not match strides with Toews On Ice in the Speakeasy (six furlongs) at Santa Anita Oct 18 but was clearly second best. He seems to want more ground and remains a promising sort. He drops two spots.

(8) RALIS (Square Eddie – Silar Rules, by Ten Most Wanted) ralis silks

Trainer (Doug O’Neill) – Owner (Reddam Racing LLC.)

Latest Workouts: 5f bullet in :59.16 (1/14) at Keeneland on Oct 16. Breezed 5f in 1:00.80 (5/17) at Keeneland on Oct 23.

Comments: G1 Hopeful winner stalked and weakened in a disappointing effort in the Champagne (wet track). He might prefer fast ground and is almost certainly better than his last. He’s pre-entered in the BC Juvenile. He drops four spots to #8.

(9) SEYMOURDINI (Bernardini – Graeme Six, by Graeme Hall) seymourdini silks

Trainer (Linda Rice) – Owner (Iris Smith Stable)

Latest Workout: 5f bullet in 1:00.80 (1/8) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on Oct 9.

Comments: $900k purchase battled with Mohaymen throughout and ended up 2nd in his debut. No published works since Oct 9 (it is Oct 23 now). He drops seven spots.

(10) JUSTIN SQUARED (Zensational – Graciously Soft, by Vindication) justin squared silks

Trainer (Bob Baffert) – Owner (Zayat Stables LLC.)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:02.20 (24/28) at Santa Anita Park Oct 13.

Comments: Went all the way in an easy wire job debut at Del Mar Sept 5 (86 BSF). He is fast and has a sprint-oriented pedigree. No published works since Oct 13 (it is Oct 23 now). He’s down one spot.

(11) I WILL SCORE (Roman Ruler – Grassy Nellie, by Belong to Me) i will score silks

Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) – Owner (Hans Poetsch)

Latest Workout: 5f in :59.40 (2/42) at Santa Anita Oct 8.

Comments: Romped in his Los Alamitos debut Sept 11. No published works since Oct 8 (it is Oct 23 now). He drops three spots.

Honorable Mention: (12) Nyquist, (13) Exaggerator, (14) Swipe, (15) Who’s Out, (16) Gametown, (17) Wild Man, (18) King Kranz, (19) Arabian Leopard, (20) Rafting

Kentucky Derby 2016 Contenders: Brody’s Cause, Greenpointcrusader (VIDEO)

Kentucky Derby 2016 Contenders

It seems impossible but it is that time again, and the September tradition continues. This is my first in a series of blogs devoted to Kentucky Derby 2016 contenders. This is just the beginning and there will be many twists and turns in the weeks and months ahead.

Kentucky-Derby-logo-2016_615x400

10 of the last 15 Kentucky Derby winners graduated by October 4, including 7 of the last 9. Kentucky Derby 2012 hero I’ll Have Another captured his career debut at Hollywood Park on July 3 of his juvenile season.

Kentucky Derby 2013 winner Orb lost his first three juvenile outings. He graduated at the Big A on November 24, 2012, his first of five straight wins, culminating in a scintillating off the pace tally under the Twin Spires on May 4.

Kentucky Derby 2014 winner California Chrome earned his diploma in his second career start ($100k Graduation – 5.5f) at Del Mar on July 31, 2013. He ended his juvenile season with an easy win in the King Glorious, the beginning of a 6-race winning streak that ended with a dead-heat for 4th in the Belmont Stakes.

Triple Crown 2015 winner American Pharaoh graduated in the G1 Del Mar Futurity on 9-3-14, the beginning of an 8-race win streak (7 Grade 1‘s and a Grade 2).

Some of my original September Derby blog juvenile contenders panned out, like my early 2010-2011 Number 1’s Stay Thirsty and Alpha. Both won the G1 Travers during their 3-year-old seasons. Others turn out to be disappointments, such as Fortify and Purple Sky, my 2012 and 2013 original Number 1’s.

International Star was my original number one Kentucky Derby 2015 contender and he was scratched the morning of the Derby. 3 of my original 11 Derby contenders made it to the starting gate including winner American Pharoah. The other two were Frosted and Carpe Diem.

An ideal Kentucky Derby contender would have a solid juvenile foundation, a long-winded pedigree, sharp graded stakes form, running style versatility, and winning connections. Strong pre-Derby works are the icing on the cake.

Graded Recaps (Derby Points Races)

G1 FrontRunner (79 BSF): American Pharoah won the FrontRunner last year. This time around, Nyquist was the overwhelming favorite and he remained undefeated with yet another win over Swipe. His margin of victory dipped and talented juvenile filly Songbird ran much faster in the G1 Chandelier. Nyquist looks like a miler and will not make my Derby list at this time.

G3 Iroquois (81 BSF): Cocked and Loaded stalked, pounced, and kicked clear to win by 2-lengths over Rated R Superstar, Unbridled Outlaw, and Conquest Windycity. The Iroquois has not been a productive race in regards to Derby contenders in recent years.

There are three Derby points races this weekend: G1 Champagne (Belmont Park, Oct 3), G1 Breeders’ Futurity (Keeneland, Oct 3), and G3 Grey (Woodbine, Oct 4).

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2016 Contenders

(1) MOHAYMEN (Tapit – Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union) mohaymen silks

Trainer (Kiaran Mclaughlin) – Owner (Shadwell Stable)

Comments: The $2.2 million yearling purchase was a determined 1/2 length winner (87 BSF) at six furlongs in his Belmont Park debut on 9-19-15. Dam Justwhistledixie won the G2 Davona Dale and G2 Bonnie Miss at GP in 2009.
The G2 Nashua on Nov 4 at Aqueduct might be next.

(2) SEYMOURDINI (Bernardini – Graeme Six, by Graeme Hall) seymourdini silks

Trainer (Linda Rice) – Owner (Iris Smith Stable)

Comments: $900k purchase battled with Mohaymen throughout and ended up 2nd in his debut. He is one of three Bernardini freshman to make the initial list.

(3) MOR SPIRIT (Eskendereya – Im a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union) mor spirit silks

Trainer (Bob Baffert) – Owner (Michael Lund Petersen)

Comments: $650k purchase had a slow start, made a nice inside middle move, took the lead, and ended up a clear 2nd (83 BSF) in his 6f Santa Anita debut Sept 27. He will not be a maiden much longer.

(4) RALIS (Square Eddie – Silar Rules, by Ten Most Wanted) ralis silks

Trainer (Doug O’Neill) – Owner (Reddam Racing LLC.)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.60 (53/87) at Santa Anita on Sept 26.

Comments: His five starts include a second time out maiden win at Santa Anita, a 2nd in the Graduation Stakes at Del Mar, and a romping win in the G1 Hopeful (93 BSF) at Saratoga Sept 7. He is entered in the G1 Champagne at Belmont Park on Saturday, Oct 3.

(5) STREET VISION (Street Sense – Emmy’s Storm, by Stormy Atlantic) street vision silks

Trainer (Mark Glatt) – Owner (Norman Stables, LLC.)

Comments: Followed up a distant 4th behind a runaway winner in his Del Mar bow with a professional stalk/pounce win under Bejarano at Santa Anita Sept 27 (87 BSF).

(6) SAIL AHOY (Bernardini – Matlacha Pass, by Seeking the Gold) sail ahoy silks

Trainer (Shug McGaughey) – Owner (Phipps Stable)

Latest Workout: Breezed 4f in :47.66 (5/40) at Belmont Park on Sept 27.

Comments: Rallied to finished a distant 3rd (17-1 odds) behind Ready Dancer & Condominium in his six furlong debut at Saratoga Aug 29. He was ready to roll in his second start at Belmont Park (one mile, Sept 12), going last-to-first by a head at 3.95-1 odds. He is entered in the G1 Champagne at Belmont Park on Saturday, Oct 3.

(7) CONQUEST BIG E (Tapit – Seeinsbelieven, by Carson City) conquest big e silks

Trainer (Mark Casse) – Owner (Conquest Stables, LLC.)

Latest Workout: 4f in :47.20 (2/32) at Churchill Downs Sept 25.

Comments: Broke in the air, rallied wide to take the lead, and was run down by Brody’s Cause in his flat mile debut at Churchill Sept 11. His is still immature and needs to get over his gate issues.

(8) I WILL SCORE (Roman Ruler – Grassy Nellie, by Belong to Me) i will score silks

Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) – Owner (Hans Poetsch)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.60 (4/13) at Los Alamitos Sept 25.

Comments: Romped in his Los Alamitos debut Sept 11.

(9) JUSTIN SQUARED (Zensational – Graciously Soft, by Vindication) justin squared silks

Trainer (Bob Baffert) – Owner (Zayat Stables LLC.)

Latest Workout: 5f bullet in :59.20 (1/55) at Santa Anita Park Sept 28.

Comments: Went all the way in an easy wire job debut at Del Mar Sept 5 (86 BSF).

(10) GREENPOINTCRUSADER (Bernardini – Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance) greenpointcrusader silks

Trainer (Dominick Schettino) – Owner (St. Elias Stable)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.85 (5/31) at Belmont Park Sept 26.

Comments: Missed by a neck in his Saratoga debut July 25 and scored by a neck at that same venue (seven furlongs) second time out Sept 5. He is entered in the G1 Champagne at Belmont Park on Saturday, Oct 3.

(11) BRODY’S CAUSE (Giant’s Causeway – Sweet Breanna, by Sahm) brody's cause silks

Trainer (Dale Romans) – Owner (Albaugh Family Stable)

Latest Workout: 5f breeze in 1:01.80 (21/43) at Churchill Downs Sept 26.

Comments: Finished 8th in his Ellis Park debut and went last-to-first (paid $69.20) to beat well-meant first timer Conquest Big E at a flat mile (Churchill Downs) Sept 11. He is entered in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday, Oct 3.

Honorable Mention: (12) Nyquist, (13) Swipe, (14) Exaggerator, (15) Who’s Out, (16) Gametown, (17) Wild Man, (18) King Kranz, (19) Arabian Leopard, (20) Rafting