CashCall Futurity 2012 Analysis: Will Violence remain unbeaten?

Saturday’s 9th race from Betfair Hollywood Park is the Grade I CashCall Futurity for 2-year-olds traveling a mile and a sixteenth on Cushion Track.

Check out the top Kentucky Derby 2013 contenders at HorseRacingNation.com

BHP 9 (G1 CashCall Futurity, 8.5f)

COMMENTS:

1. He’s Had Enough (9-2) – BC Juvenile runner-up remains eligible for entry level spot.
2. Den’s Legacy (6-1) – G3 Generous hero is 1 of 4 Baffert runners entered here.
3. Dirty Swagg (20-1) – Real Quiet show finished hails from sneaky longshot barn.
4. Carving (8-1) – Real Quiet winner is 2-for-2 on synthetic ground.
5. Fury Kapcori (8-1) – Real Quiet runner-up is out of hot Hollendorfer barn.
6. VIOLENCE (7-2) – Pletcher’s promising colt tries synthetic route for first time.
7. Simon Eyes (12-1) – Wesley Ward’s longshot is training well for this.
8. Really Mr Greely (5-1) – Back-to-back wins including G3 Hollywood Prevue.
9. Title Contender (10-1) – Set the pace and spit the bit in BC Juvenile.
10. Little Jerry (12-1) – Rode late running bias to local route maiden win Nov 18.
11. Oxbow (15-1) – $250k purchase went all the way in 7f affair at CD on Nov 25.

ANALYSIS:

#6 VIOLENCE  (7-2) (7-2) could be any kind for Pletcher. He professionally captured his 7f debut at the Spa and runner-up Titletown Five flattered him with a big fig next out graduation run under the Twin Spires. The $600k son of Medaglia d’Oro came off the bench to take the G2 Nashua last out and is bred to improve with added distance. He projects a tactical trip under Castellano and could easily make it three straight.

#9 Really Mr Greely (5-1) beat highly regarded stablemates Super Ninety Nine and Shakin It Up in a fast renewal of the G3 Hollywood Prevue. He looms a pace factor at the very least in his first start around two turns.

#2 Den’s Legacy (6-1) exits a solid victory in the G3 Generous at a flat mile on the turf. The versatile sort graduated on synthetic and could sit the right ground saving tactical trip at playable odds.

#1 He’s Had Enough (9-2) rallied for the place in a slow renewal of the G1 BC Juvenile. I’ll try to beat the likely underlay.

#9 Title Contender (10-1) set the pace and faded in the aforementioned BC Juvenile.

Several of these (Dirty Swagg, Carving, Fury Kapcori, Simon Eyes) competed in the Real Quiet Stakes, the local prep for this, and number from that heat came back light.

The Plays:

$30 to win #6

$5 Quinella 6/2-9 ($10)

analysis by Jarrod Horak

Kentucky Derby 2013 Contenders – Violence ready for CashCall Futurity

My current third ranked Kentucky Derby 2013 contender Violence can make a run at the top spot with a strong effort in Saturday’s Grade I CashCall Futurity at Betfair Hollywood Park.

Violence, an undefeated son of Medaglia d’Oro, out of Gone West mare Violent Beauty, began his career with a neck victory in a Saratoga extended sprint, and place/show finishers Titletown Five and Orb have both graduated since.

Baffert is expected to start four in the G1 CashCall Futurity – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

The highly regarded Pletcher trainee faced graded rivals second time out and passed that test with flying colors, winning the G2 Nashua by a comfortable two lengths at a flat mile around the Big A oval.

Violence has done everything asked of him up to this point, and now he must ship to SoCal and run on synthetic ground and around two turns for the first time. His CashCall foes are expected to include Carving, Den’s Legacy, Really Mr Greely, and Title Contender, all from the Bob Baffert barn. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up He’s Had Enough is also expected to compete.

Speaking of Bob Baffert, he unveiled exciting prospect Flashback at Hollywood on Saturday. He easily put away promising Shirreffs runner Mentor Cane in the seven panel Cushion Track test.

Click on the names of each horse below (Top 5 contenders) to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.

Jarrod Horak’s Top Ten Kentucky Derby 2013 Contenders

1. Uncaptured (Lion Heart) – Mark Casse’s Ontario-bred ran his record to 6-for-7 in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. He barely clings to the top spot after earning a surprisingly low 76 BSF. Derby Points (10). 

2. Goldencents (Into Mischief) – Champagne runner-up went all the way in the G3 Delta Jackpot. Not sure how far he wants to run but O’Neill should have fun with the speedy sort. Worked 6f in 1:12.80 (2/10) at Santa Anita on 12-7. Derby Points (14).

3. Violence (Medaglia d’Oro) – Based on his strong route pedigree, he is just getting warmed up. He overcame inexperience to capture G2 Nashua and should continue to progress. Pletcher has mentioned the G1 CashCall Futurity on Dec 15 as his next target. Breezed 4f in :50.15 (3/4) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on 12-9.

4. Balance the Books (Lemon Drop Kid) – Graduated in G2 With Anticipation and rallied outside to get up late in the grassy G3 Bourbon (77 BSF). He rallied nicely to just miss the place in the BC Juvenile Turf and the Chad Brown trainee packs a nice late kick.

5. Noble Tune (Unbridled’s Song) – G3 Pilgrim (82 BSF) hero finished a fine 2^nd in the BC Juvenile Turf and appears to have a bright future for Chad Brown.

6. Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy) – Followed up facile maiden route win (90 BSF) with a near miss in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. McPeek will give him a little break and he figures to winter in Florida. Derby Points (4).

Power Broker gets a breather and will not represent Baffert in the CashCall Futurity – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

7. Power Broker (Pulpit) – $360k purchase graduated in style vs. graded foes in FrontRunner. He raced wide and never got a chance to run his race in BC Juvenile. Baffert was considering the CashCall Futurity but ultimately decided against it. Derby Points (10).

8. Capo Bastone (Street Boss) – Closed into the teeth of a speed bias to snatch 3^rd in the FrontRunner, and he pulled the same trick in the BC Juvenile. He has moved to the Pletcher barn in Florida and is expected to make his 3yo bow in the G2 Hutcehson at 7f on 2-2-13. Derby Points (4).

9. Fortify (Distorted Humor) – Debut sprint winner at the Spa followed that up with a 2^nd in the G2 Hopeful and a 3^rd in G1 Champagne. Lasix-free colt finished a flat 4^th in the BC Juvenile and needs time off to grow and mature. Derby Points (3).

10. Overanalyze (Dixie Union) – Pletcher’s versatile colt won his second graded race in the Remsen (99 BSF). Early plans have him contesting the Gotham and Wood Memorial at Aqueduct next year. Derby Points (10).

Exciting Prospects (in alphabetical order):

Delhomme (Dixie Union) – Set the pace and ended up a rock solid 3^rd in a fast renewal of the Remsen. He will get a breather at WinStar Farm before returning to the Pletcher barn at Palm Meadows. Derby Points (2).

Flashback (Tapit) – Baffert’s $260k purchase lived up to the hype with a professional 7f debut win under Leparoux at BHP Dec 8. Zazu’s brother cruised past highly regarded Shirreffs colt Mentor Cane (Mizzen Mast).

Little Distorted (Distorted Humor) – Beat heavy favorite Revolutionary in his 6f Belmont bow Oct 28 and the top two were well clear of the rest. Winning BSF of 101. Sold privately to Silverton Farm. New trainer Darrin Miller. Breezed 5f in 1:00.42 (2/17) at Gulfstream on 12-2.

Normandy Invasion (Tapit) – Chad Brown already has two talented turf runners in my top ten and his Remsen runner-up is worth following. The $230k Keeneland sales grad owns a decent late kick. Derby Points (4).

Palace Malice (Curlin) – The Saratoga maiden breaker is off the Injured Reserve list (bucked shins) and is currently back in Pletcher’s barn in Florida. He should return to the worktab shortly.

Former Top Ten Members

Archwarrior (Arch) – Pletcher’s highly regarded $375k colt was a professional debut winner at Saratoga on 8-30. He finished 4th in the Champagne and was most likely done in by his lack of seasoning. He might return to the worktab next week. Derby Points (1).

Gabriel Charles (Street Boss) – 6^th in Del Mar Futurity and 7^th in FrontRunner. He rebounded smartly in a downhill turf sprint (86 BSF) on the Saturday BC undercard at Santa Anita. He worked 5f in 1:00.40 (7/55) at Hollywood on 12-8.

Know More (Lion Heart) – FrontRunner place finisher was 13^th in the BC Juvenile Turf and 8^th in the Delta Jackpot. He has been terribly mismanaged since the FrontRunner and needs time to regroup. Derby Points (4).

Micromanage (Medaglia d’Oro) – Finished a distant last in the Remsen. That effort was too bad to believe but that’s back-to-back disappointments after a promising bow. He remains in New York and is scheduled to make his next start at the Big A on Jan 5.

Pataky Kid (Rockport Harbor) – G3 Arlington-Washington Futurity hero finished 4^th in G1 Breeders’ Futurity and 5^th after hopping at start (blinkers on) in G3 Iroquois. Derby Points – (1)

Shanghai Bobby (Harlan’s Holiday) – Made it 5-for-5 with a determined win in the G1 BC Juvenile (82 BSF). I always had my doubts about his stamina and he does not want to go beyond 8.5f based on his slow Juvenile effort. He is expected to make his 3yo bow in the Holy Bull at the Gulf on Jan 26. Derby Points (20).  

Tizracer (Tiznow) – Improved smartly second time out to romp in flat mile graduation run (92 BSF) at Belmont Park on 9-8. Todd Pletcher trainee attended the pace before weakening to finish 12^th in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity. He might not have care for synthetic and deserves a chance to rebound on conventional dirt.

Injured Reserve

Rolling Fog (Posse) – Baffert’s G1 Del Mar Futurity hero is out for 60 days with bucked shins.

Titletown Five (Tiznow) – Facile 7f tally (97 BSF) under Twin Spires in his 4^th start. Bone chip has sidelined the Lukas trainee.