Posts Tagged ‘Discreetness’

Kentucky Derby 2016 Contenders: G2 Risen Star Stakes Video Analysis

The Kentucky Derby 2016 points chase gets serious with the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, February 20.

The Risen Star is the first Derby prep race to award 85 points (50-20-10-5). All of the points races up to this point were worth 17 points (10-4-2-1).

Airoforce is the 5-2 morning line favorite at Fair Grounds. He won 3 of 4 starts as a juvenile including the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs in November. The $350k son of Colonel John is training forwardly in preparation for his sophomore debut and he will by rallying from off the pace under Julien Leparoux.

Graded Recaps (2016 Derby Points Races)

G3 Southwest (2-15-16, 93 BSF): Suddenbreakingnews, coupled in the wagering with Synchrony, went from 14th (5+ lengths behind next-to-last horse) to 1st (by 2.75 lengths) to win going away at Oaklawn Park on Monday. Whitmore rallied for the place and had a less than ideal trip. American Dubai stalked, took the lead, and was passed by the top two late. Post time favorite Collected ran to his paper race expectations and finished 4th. Synchrony started out 12th and passed tired rivals to finish a flat 6th. Discreetness could not overcome post 14 (8 wide first turn) and ended up 7th.

G3 El Camino Real Derby (2-13-16, 86 BSF): Frank Conversation sure loves the synthetic surface at Golden Gate Fields. The Doug O’Neill trainee followed up an easy win in the California Derby with a gritty score by less than a length on Saturday. Graham Motion saddled 2-3 finishers Tusk and Kasseopia. The latter probably needed the race (bad start) and is worth following.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2016 Contenders

(1) MOHAYMEN (Tapit – Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union) mohaymen silks 2016

Trainer (Kiaran Mclaughlin) – Owner (Shadwell Stable)

Latest Workout: 4f bullet in :47.75 (1/31) at Palm Meadows on Feb 12.

Comments: The $2.2 million yearling purchase went 3-for-3 as a juvenile and rattled off back-to-back graded wins in the G2 Nashua and G2 Remsen, both at Aqueduct. He was training well for his sophomore debut in the Holy Bull and did not disappoint with an easy stalk/pounce victory at the Gulf on Jan 30. I love his professionalism and tactical speed, which keeps him out of trouble, an important trait on the Derby trail. He has been my top ranked Derby contender since I started my list last September and appears to be in peak form in advance of the Fountain of Youth Stakes.

Derby Points (20)

(2) MOR SPIRIT (Eskendereya – Im a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union) more spirit silks 2016

Trainer (Bob Baffert) – Owner (Michael Lund Petersen)

Latest Workout: 4f in :48.60 (21/49) at Santa Anita Park on Feb 17.

Comments: Last year’s G1 Los Al Futurity picked up where he left off with another graded win in the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb 6. Baffert’s improving stalker keeps collecting Derby points. The G2 San Felipe on March 12 at Santa Anita Park might be next. He stays put at #2, a spot he has occupied since Oct 24.

Derby Points (24)

(3) BRODY’S CAUSE (Giant’s Causeway – Sweet Breanna, by Sahm) brody's cause silks 2016

Trainer (Dale Romans) – Owner (Albaugh Family Stable)

Latest Workout: 5f bullet in :58.71 (1/27) at Gulfstream Park on Feb 14.

Comments: The patient runner looked good from off the pace in back-to-back wins at Churchill (one mile maiden race) and Keeneland (G1 Breeders’ Futurity). He worked his way through traffic to finish a decent 3rd in the BC Juvenile. He is wintering in Florida and figures to have two Derby preps, beginning with the G2 Tampa Bay Derby March 12 and ending with the G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 9. He remains at #3.

Derby Points (14)

(4) GREENPOINTCRUSADER (Bernardini – Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance) greenpointcrusader silks 2016

Trainer (Dominick Schettino) – Owner (St. Elias Stable)

Latest Workout: 4f in :50.80 (42/56) at Palm Meadows on Feb 14.

Comments: The G1 Champagne winner was too far back early as the favorite in the BC Juvenile and ended up a better than appears 7th after getting fanned very wide in the lane at Keeneland Oct 31. He exited the BC Juvenile with an eye ulcer, probably caused by flying dirt during the running of the race. He resurfaced in the Holy Bull and the patient sort surprisingly took up the running and was clearly second best. He retains his #4 ranking and his next start is undecided.

Derby Points (14)

(5) AIROFORCE (Colonel John – Chocolate Pop, by Cuvee) airoforce silks

Trainer (Mark Casse) – Owner (John C. Oxley)

Latest Workout: 4f in :48.30 (2/31) at Palm Meadows on Feb 12.

Comments: He won a productive renewal of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last year, beating subsequent graded stakes winners Mor Spirit (Los Al Futurity, Robert Lewis Stakes) and Mo Tom (LeComte). He returned to the worktab Jan 11, missed his next work with an elevated temperature, and resumed morning activity Jan 25. His sire Colonel John was my Derby horse in 2008. He is entered in the G2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb 20 and is the 5-2 morning line favorite. He needs a strong performance on Saturday to remain in the top five.

Derby Points (10)

(6) NYQUIST (Uncle Mo – Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry)

Trainer (Doug O’Neill) – Owner (Reddam Racing LLC.)

Comments: The 2-year-old champion looked like a champ in his sophomore debut in the G2 San Vicente at seven furlongs. He ran fast throughout at Santa Anita on Feb 15, stopping the timer in 1:20.71 (100 BSF) and winning by 1.5 lengths over Exaggerator. He is expected to have his final Derby prep in the G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on April 2.

Derby Points (30)

(7) EXAGGERATOR (Curlin – Dawn Raid, by Vindication)

Trainer (Keith Desormeaux) – Owner (Big Chief Racing, LLC)

Comments: He came back ready to roll in the San Vicente but so did Nyquist and he settled for a clear place finish after giving the champ a scare in mid-stretch. It was a solid beginning to his 3-year-old campaign and should set him up nicely for the San Felipe.

Derby Points (16)

(8) MATT KING COAL (Cool Coal Man – Donna Marie, by Came Home)

Trainer (Linda Rice) – Owner (Lady Sheila Stable)

Latest Workout: 6f in 1:17.66 (1/1) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on Feb 15.

Comments: Earned two of the better juvenile speed figures in a clear place finish at 8.5 furlongs at Belmont Oct 3 (93 BSF) and a 96 BSF for his easy flat mile wire job maiden win at that same venue Oct 29. Following a respiratory infection, he spiked a fever, missed the G3 Jerome on Jan 3, and went to the farm for a vacation. He returned to the work tab Feb 7 and is pointing to the G3 Gotham at Aqueduct March 5.

(9) CONQUEST BIG E (Tapit – Seeinsbelieven, by Carson City)

Trainer (Mark Casse) – Owner (Conquest Stables, LLC.)

Latest Workout: 4f in :48.40 (3/50) at Palm Meadows on Feb 13.

Comments: The Holy Bull disappointment is behind him and it is put up or shut up time. He needs to step up and prove that he belongs in the graded ranks and must run big in his next start.

Derby Points (1)

(10) GIFT BOX (Twirling Candy – Special Me, by Unbridled’s Song)

Trainer (Chad Brown) – Owner (W. S. Farish)

Latest Workout: 4f in :49 (25/71) at Palm Meadows on Jan 25.

Comments: Beat Matt King Coal by a nose at 8.5f (Belmont Park, Oct 3) and was flattered when that one returned to win impressively four weeks later. He fought restraint in the Remsen and ended up an even 3rd in his first stakes try. He missed a couple of recent works and took a pass on the Risen Star. He should be back on the work tab shortly and needs to get fit and find a race in a hurry.

Derby Points (2)

(11) SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS (Mineshaft – Uchitel, by Afleet Alex)

Trainer (Donnie K Von Hemel) – Owner (Samuel F. Henderson)

Comments: He replaces stablemate Synchrony on the list after rallying powerfully and going last-to-first in the G3 Southwest. He has fired Exacta shots in all six career starts and has a smart route-oriented pedigree. The G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 19 is next.

Derby Points (10)

Honorable Mention: (12) Mo Tom, (13) Zulu, (14) Danzing Candy, (15) Malibu Sunset, (16) Rafting, (17) I Will Score, (18) Shagaf, (19) Rally Cry, (20) Awesome Banner

Kentucky Derby 2016 Contenders: Holy Bull Preview Featuring Mohaymen (Video)

My top ranked Kentucky Derby 2016 contender Mohaymen makes his much anticipated 3-year-old debut in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, January 30.

Mohaymen

Mohaymen starts his 3yo season in the Holy Bull – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Mohaymen sports an unblemished 3-for-3 record has worked four times at Palm Meadows in preparation for the Holy Bull including a five furlong bullet on Jan. 21.

Six horses will line up in Holy Bull and there is not much pace in the paper race. Mohaymen and Conquest Big E look like the main speed and I would not be surprised if Mike Smith tried to go all the way aboard the latter.

Grade 1 Champagne winner Greenpointcrusader is the other main contender. The race shape of the Holy Bull might play against the patient type and I expect him to get better as the year progresses.

This is my first 2016 Derby contenders update. So far this year, the winners of the Derby Points races have flattered some of the top performers from last year. Flexibility (entered in G3 Withers at Aqueduct Jan 30) flattered Mohaymen with his tally in the Jerome and Mo Tom flattered Kentucky Jockey Club 1-2 finishers Airoforce and Mor Spirit with his win in the LeComte.

Graded Recaps (2016 Derby Points Races)

Smarty Jones (1-18-16, 83 BSF): Discreeetness stalked Gordy Florida and beat his rival by a neck after a lengthy stretch duel. Synchrony rallied from 10th to finish 3rd and odds-on favorite Toews On Ice attended the pace and faded to 6th for Baffert.

G3 LeComte (1-16-16, 88 BSF): Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes show finisher Mo Tom (Uncle Mo) had a troubled beginning, dropped well off the pace, and closed strongly on the outside to win by 2-1/4 lengths over Tom’s Ready, who rallied to the lead in the stretch but could not match strides with the winner. Uncle Walter stalked the pace and ended up an even 3rd.

G3 Sham (1-9-16, 80 BSF): Collected successfully made the turf/dirt move for Baffert. He stalked, pounced, and pulled clear by 1-1/4 lengths as the 3-2 favorite. Let’s Meet in Rio rallied from 8th to land the place and Laoban was best of the rest. This did not look like a strong Derby prep on paper and the speed figure drove that point home.

G3 Jerome (1-2-16, 90 BSF): Remsen runner-up Flexibility was the heavy favorite and did not disappoint his backers with a very easy stalk/pounce score by 4-1/2 lengths. Vorticity dueled on the lead and finished a clear 2nd and In Equality was almost ten lengths ahead of the rest.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2016 Contenders

(1) MOHAYMEN (Tapit – Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union) mohaymen silks 2016

Trainer (Kiaran Mclaughlin) – Owner (Shadwell Stable)

Latest Workout: 5f bullet in :59.40 (1/10) at Palm Meadows on Jan 21.

Comments: The $2.2 million yearling purchase went 3-for-3 as a juvenile and rattled off back-to-back graded wins in the G2 Nashua (89 BSF) and G2 Remsen (96 BSF), both at Aqueduct. He is training well for his sophomore debut. He has been my top ranked Derby contender since I started my list last September.

Derby Points (10)

(2) MOR SPIRIT (Eskendereya – Im a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union) more spirit silks 2016

Trainer (Bob Baffert) – Owner (Michael Lund Petersen)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.20 (6/37) at Santa Anita on Jan 28.

Comments: $650k purchase was a clear 2nd (83 BSF) in his 6f Santa Anita debut Sept 27 and returned to graduate at a flat mile Oct 23 second time out (92 BSF). He shipped to Churchill Downs and battled hard throughout in a good runner-up performance in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on Nov 28 and wrapped up his fine juvenile season with a nice win in the G1 Los Al Futurity on Dec 19. He continues to prepare for the Robert Lewis Stakes on Feb 6 and stays put at #2.

Derby Points (14)

(3) BRODY’S CAUSE (Giant’s Causeway – Sweet Breanna, by Sahm) brody's cause silks 2016

Trainer (Dale Romans) – Owner (Albaugh Family Stable)

Latest Workouts: 5f in 1:01.16 (11/31) at Gulfstream Park on Jan 24. 4f bullet in :47.74 (1/38) at Gulfstream Park on Jan 18.

Comments: The professional runner looked good from off the pace in back-to-back wins at Churchill (one mile maiden win) and Keeneland (G1 Breeders’ Futurity). He worked his way through traffic to finish a decent 3rd in the BC Juvenile and figures to make a nice late run wherever he shows up on the Derby trail. He is wintering in Florida and remains at #3.

Derby Points (14)

(4) GREENPOINTCRUSADER (Bernardini – Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance) greenpointcrusader silks 2016

Trainer (Dominick Schettino) – Owner (St. Elias Stable)

Latest Workout: 5f in 102 (8/16) at Palm Meadows on Jan 24.

Comments: After a pair of solid sprint efforts to begin his career at Saratoga, he put it all together from off the pace in a strong 4-1/2 length victory in the Champagne. The BC Juvenile favorite was too far back early and ended up a better than appears 7th after getting fanned very wide in the lane at Keeneland Oct 31. He exited the BC Juvenile with an eye ulcer, probably caused by flying dirt during the running of the race. He is wintering in Florida and returned to the work tab Dec 28. I fancy his pedigree and he kicks off his 3-year-old season in the Holy Bull. He retains his #4 ranking and I like him as a long term prospect.

Derby Points (10)

(5) CONQUEST BIG E (Tapit – Seeinsbelieven, by Carson City) conquest big e silks 2016

Trainer (Mark Casse) – Owner (Conquest Stables, LLC.)

Latest Workout: 4f in :49 (39/102) at Palm Meadows on Jan 24.

Comments: Visually impressive maiden win at Keeneland Oct 2. In the BC Juvenile, he chased the pace from the inside pace and faded to finish 8th. He bounced back with a solid stalk/pounce 2-length flat mile Optional Claiming win at Churchill Downs on Nov 28. He is wintering in Florida and will be the services of Mike Smith in the Holy Bull. He remains at #5.

(6) GIFT BOX (Twirling Candy – Special Me, by Unbridled’s Song)

Trainer (Chad Brown) – Owner (W. S. Farish)

Latest Workouts: 4f in :49 (25/71) at Palm Meadows on Jan 25. 4f in :48.95 (13/74) at Palm Meadows on Jan 19.

Comments: Beat Matt King Coal by a nose at 8.5f (Belmont Park, Oct 3) and was flattered when that one returned to win impressively four weeks later. He fought restraint in the Remsen and ended up an even 3rd in his first stakes try. He returned to the worktab at Palm Meadows Jan 19. He moves up one position.

Derby Points (2)  

(7) NYQUIST (Uncle Mo – Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry)

Trainer (Doug O’Neill) – Owner (Reddam Racing LLC.)

Latest Workout: 6f in 1:15.60 (14/18) at Santa Anita on Jan 24.

Comments: Ran his record to 5-for-5 and wrapped up the 2-year-old title in the BC Juvenile. To his credit, he was farther back than usual and raced wide from post 13. He gamely held off Swipe for the fourth consecutive race but the final clocking was more than a second slower than filly counterpart Songbird. He seems like a miler type but keeps on winning. At this stage he is in great shape in regards to Derby points and is preparing to make his first 2016 start in the G2 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita on February 15. He is up one spot.

Derby Points (30)

(8) AIROFORCE (Colonel John – Chocolate Pop, by Cuvee)

Trainer (Mark Casse) – Owner (John C. Oxley)

Latest Workout: 4f in :48 (3/71) at Palm Meadows on Jan 25.

Comments: His first three turf races produced two wins (MSW, G3 Bourbon) and a second (G1 BC Juvenile Turf). They switched to dirt (wet track) in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Nov 28 and he wrapped up his juvenile campaign with a victory over subsequent graded stakes winners Mor Spirit (Los Al Futurity) and Mo Tom (LeComte). He returned to the worktab Jan 11 but missed his next work with an elevated temperature. He resumed morning activity Jan 25. He makes his debut on the list.

Derby Points (10)

(9) EXAGGERATOR (Curlin – Dawn Raid, by Vindication)

Trainer (Keith Desormeaux) – Owner (Big Chief Racing, LLC)

Latest Workout: 7f in 1:25.80 (2/5) from the gate at Santa Anita on Jan 23.

Comments: He had a busy juvenile campaign with six starts and wins in the G2 Saratoga Special and G3 Delta Jackpot. He was also 2nd in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity and 4th in the G1 BC Juvenile. He is expected to begin his Derby March in the San Vicente. He is a new addition to the list.

Derby Points (16)

(10) SYNCHRONY (Tapit – Brownie Points, by Forest Wildcat)

Trainer (Donnie K Von Hemel) – Owner (Pin Oak Stable)

Comments: After finishing 2nd in his career debut, he won back-to-back races at Keeneland and Churchill to end his 2-year-old season. He put in a nice late run to finish 3rd in the Smarty Jones and was gaining on the top two in a promising effort at Oaklawn Jan 18. He is new to the list and might go next in the Southwest in Feb 15.

Derby Points (2)

(11) MATT KING COAL (Cool Coal Man – Donna Marie, by Came Home)

Trainer (Linda Rice) – Owner (Lady Sheila Stable)

Comments: Earned two of the better juvenile speed figures in a clear place finish at 8.5 furlongs at Belmont Oct 3 (93 BSF) and a 96 BSF for his easy flat mile wire job maiden win at that same venue Oct 29. Following a respiratory infection, he spiked a fever and missed the G3 Jerome on Jan 3. He is getting a 4-6 week vacation on the farm and they hope to have him back for the G3 Gotham at Aqueduct March 5. He remains glued to the bottom of the list.

Honorable Mention: (12) Flexibility, (13) Mo Tom, (14) Zulu, (15) Sail Ahoy, (16) I Will Score, (17) Rafting, (18) Street Vision, (19) Swipe, (20) Seymourdini