Posts Tagged ‘He;s Had Enough’

Fountain of Youth Stakes 2013 video + written analysis

The 2013 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park is worth 50 Kentucky Derby points to the winner. My special video guest this week is Molly Jo Rosen from RacingWithBruno.com. I have also included my written analysis (with wagering strategies) below.

Early-pressing types breaking from posts 1-3 dominate 8.5 furlong races at Gulfstream Park. The fractions figure to be honest with #4 Majestic Hussar (8-1), #5 Elmutahid (20-1), #6 Cerro (4-1), #8 Speak Logistics (12-1), and #10 Falling Sky (6-1) jostling for early position.

#3 VIOLENCE (9-5) fits the winning course profile as an early-pressing type breaking from an inner post. The undefeated Grade 1 winner is training well for this and is the best horse in the race.

#1 Orb (12-1) rallied to win a 9f entry level affair here despite a lack of pace last out. He finished 3rd to Violence in his bow and beat Revolutionary at the Big A in November. He gets pace to chase and will be finishing from the cozy rail under Johnny V.

THE PLAYS:

#3 to win

Exacta 3-1

Trifecta 3/ALL/1

Check out my Saturday (Feb 23) Gulfstream Park full card analysis (available now) and Bonus Free Pick (Fair Grounds 13th race, click view sample) at TodaysRacingDigest.com.

Risen Star Stakes 2013 video + written analysis

The 2013 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds is worth 50 Kentucky Derby points to the winner. My special video guest this week is Molly Jo Rosen from RacingWithBruno.com. I have also included my written analysis (with wagering strategies) below.

#1 PROUD STRIKE (8-1) has faced decent runners and exits a local key race graduation run at this trip (off the turf). Stevens hops aboard for Asmussen and the $240k purchase should get better with age.

#2 Code West (6-1) invades for Baffert and was flattered when stablemate Super Ninety Nine returned to romp in the G3 Southwest. The consistent stalking type removes the hood.

#9 Normandy Invasion (5-2) makes his first start of 2013 for Chad Brown and will be finishing. He earned a big fig in the Remsen.

#6 Palace Malice (8-1) is a highly regarded Pletcher runner trying two turns for the first time. Napravnik rides.

#4 Golden Soul (20-1) was my G3 Lecomte top and was a distant 2nd that day. He is training well for this and is my longshot underneath key in the Trifecta.

#10 Oxbow (5-1) ran away from his G3 Lecomte foes and will probably try similar front running tactics.

Check out my Saturday (Feb 23) Fair Grounds full card analysis (available now) and Bonus Free Pick (FG 13th race, click view sample) at TodaysRacingDigest.com.

#5 Mylute (6-1) exits a runaway local optional claiming route win but leading rider Napravnik abandons.

#13 Circle Unbroken (20-1) looks like a sprinter.

#3 Agent (30-1), #7 Hardrock Eleven (50-1), and #8 Ive Struck a Nerve (30-1) all appear overmatched.

#11 Bethel (50-1) is cross-entered in an optional claiming route earlier in the day (Fair Grounds race 4).

#15 Sunbean (12-1) is cross-entered in the Gentilly Stakes for LA-breds (Fair Grounds race 3).

#12 He’s Had Enough (10-1) will scratch from this spot in favor of the Fountain of Youth Stakes at the Gulf.

#14 Departing (12-1) is expected to scratch out of this event in favor of a stakes spot at Sam Houston next weekend.

THE PLAYS:

#1 to win

Trifecta 1-2-6-9/ALL/4

 

Kentucky Derby 2013 Contenders – Revolutionary ousts Big A rivals

Revolutionary made a surprise late attack to overthrow his foes in the G3 Withers at Aqueduct and is the latest Kentucky Derby 2013 flavor of the week for Todd Pletcher.

Revolutionary horse

Revolutionary overcomes troubled trip in G3 Withers – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

The winning BSF in the G3 Withers was 86 and there was not much behind Revolutionary but he overcame traffic woes and a slow pace to make the grade in his first start vs. winners. He still has some growing up to do but clearly has talent and is bred to run all day.

Flashback (92 BSF) made it 2-for-2 with a facile wire job against stablemate Den’s Legacy and BC Juvenile runner-up He’s Had Enough in the G2 Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. Baffert’s promising winner has plenty of upside but still has to prove himself in a legitimately run graded route.

Falling Sky (92 BSF) made the pace and stole Dynamic Sky’s thunder in the G3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay. Those two solid colts, along with rallying show finisher My Name Is Michael, could meet again in the Tampa Bay Derby.

Verrazano (105 BSF) jumps into the top ten after his second facile tally in as many starts at the Gulf. El Padrino’s talented brother is conditioned by Todd Pletcher and will likely show up in a stakes race next.

Bob Baffert’s Super Ninety Nine (101) got the best of stablemate Code West in a flat mile allowance affair at the Great Race Place. Both colts are former members of my Exciting Prospects list.

No major shakeups in my top ten with the magnificent seven remaining intact. The bottom of the list took a hit with Verrazano and Flashback replacing Frac Daddy and Uncaptured.

Click on the names of each horse below (Top 5 contenders) to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.

Jarrod Horak’s Top Ten Kentucky Derby 2013 Contenders

1. Violence (Medaglia d’Oro) – Ran his record to 3-for-3 in smart, professional stalk/pounce tally in the G1 CashCall Futurity (92 BSF). Two Derby preps are planned, beginning with the Fountain of Youth on Feb 23. Breezed 5f in 1:02.29 (15/24) at Palm Meadows on 2-3. Derby Points (10).

Violence horse

Violence breezed 5f at Palm Meadows on Feb 3 – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

2. Normandy Invasion (Tapit) – Chad Brown’s $230k Keeneland sales grad owns a decent late kick and is definitely worth following. The Remsen runner-up breezed 5f in 1:01.23 (5/24) at Palm Meadows on 2-3 and might kick off his sophomore campaign in the G2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds on 2-23. Derby Points (4).

3. Overanalyze (Dixie Union) – Pletcher’s versatile colt won his second graded race in the Remsen (99 BSF). He is expected to contest the Gotham and Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. Breezed 5f in 1:02.29 (5/24) at Palm Meadows on 2-3. Derby Points (10).

4. Revolutionary (War Pass) – Followed up a big fig maiden win with an adventurous journey in the G3 Withers. The Pletcher trainee has now won two straight and will spend the rest of the winter in Florida. Derby Points (10).

5. Balance the Books (Lemon Drop Kid) – Won G2 With Anticipation and G3 Bourbon on turf last year. He rallied nicely to just miss the place in the BC Juvenile Turf and the Chad Brown trainee will start his 3yo season in the G3 Palm Beach at the Gulf on 3-3. Breezed 4f in :50.22 (32/51) at Palm Meadows on 2-4.

6. Noble Tune (Unbridled’s Song) – G3 Pilgrim winner finished a fine 2nd in the BC Juvenile Turf and appears to have a bright future for Chad Brown. Breezed 4f in :50.22 (32/51) at Palm Meadows on 2-4.

7. Goldencents (Into Mischief) – Champagne runner-up went all the way in the G3 Delta Jackpot and scored again in the G3 Sham Stakes. Not sure how far he wants to run but O’Neill is having fun with the speedy sort. Fired a 6f bullet in 1:12.40 (1/17) at Santa Anita on 2-4. Derby Points (24).

8. Verrazano (More Than Ready) – Pletcher trainee looks like any kind after a pair of romping Gulfstream victories to kick off his career. We will learn more about El Pardino’s brother when he tackles stakes foes in the near future.

Flashback

Flashback has Baffert smelling the roses again – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

9. Flashback (Tapit) – Baffert’s $260k purchase lived up to the hype with a professional 7f debut win under Leparoux at BHP Dec 8 and followed that up with an easy wire job vs. three rivals in the G2 Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb 2. Derby Points (10).

10. Little Distorted (Distorted Humor) – Beat Revolutionary in his Belmont bow Oct 28 (101 BSF). He raced for new connections (Silverton Farm – Darrin Miller) in the Spectacular Bid Stakes at the Gulf on Jan 1 and finished 3rd as the beaten favorite. Scratched from the Hutcheson Stakes and breezed 4f in :50.10 (11/14) at Payson Park on 2-3. He is entered in a 6.5f optional claimer at the Gulf on 2-9.

Exciting Prospects (in alphabetical order):

Delhomme (Dixie Union) – Set the pace and ended up a rock solid 3rd in a fast renewal of the Remsen. He breezed 4f in :49.09 (17/28) at Palm Meadows on 2-3. Derby Points (2).

Distinctiv Passion (With Distinction) – Wired an allowance sprint field at Santa Anita on 12-28 and pulled the same trick in the San Pedro Stakes on 1-21. Not sure how far he wants to run but he sure is fast. Next up is the G2 San Vicente on Feb 17.

Palace Malice (Curlin) – The Saratoga maiden breaker returned from an injury to finish a clear 2nd at 7f in the GP slop vs. Optional Claiming company on 1-19. Breezed 4f in :48.19 (6/28) at Palm Meadows on 2-3.

Titletown Five (Tiznow) – Promising Lukas trainee is off the IR list following a 3f breeze in :37.20 (5/9) at Oaklawn Park on 2-3.

War Academy (Giant’s Causeway) – Was bet down to even money and did not disappoint in his BHP sprint debut on 11-9. Baffert trainee is bred to handle a route of ground and should be heard from this year. Worked 6f from the gate in 1:12.90 (2/17) at Santa Anita on 2-4.

Former Top Ten Members

Capo Bastone (Street Boss) – Closed into the teeth of a speed bias to snatch 3rd in the FrontRunner, and he pulled the same trick in the BC Juvenile. He is now trained by Todd Pletcher and breezed 5f in 1:02.90 (22/24) at Palm Meadows on 2-3. Derby Points (4).

Fortify (Distorted Humor) – BC Juvenile 4th place finisher in wintering in Dubai. He has been nominated to the Triple Crown and is expected to begin his 3yo campaign in the UAE 2000 Gunieas at Meydan on 2-7. Derby Points (3).

Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy) – Ky Jockey Club Stakes runner-up grabbed a quarter and finished 5th in the Holy Bull. I’ll draw a line through the Holy Bull and give him another chance. “I don’t know when he did it, whether he did it coming out or the gate or pulling up,” trainer Ken McPeek said. “He’ll probably miss 4 or 5 days, but it could be as long as two weeks, depending on how sore it is.” Derby Points (4).

Gabriel Charles (Street Boss) – He smartly won a downhill turf sprint (86 BSF) on the Saturday BC undercard at Santa Anita and was last seen landing the place in the Eddie Logan Stakes (off the turf) on 12-29. Worked 5f in 1:02.80 (5/6) at Santa Anita (turf) on 1-31.

Know More (Lion Heart) – G1 FrontRunner place finisher has been terribly mismanaged since that effort. He most recently faded to last in an allowance dirt sprint at SA on 12-28 and desperately needs a freshening. Derby Points (4).

Pataky Kid (Rockport Harbor) – G3 Arl-Wash Futurity hero finished a disappointing 7th in the G2 Hutcheson in his first start of the year. He prefers synthetic. Derby Points (1).

Power Broker (Pulpit) – $360k purchase graduated in style vs. graded foes in FrontRunner. He raced wide and never got a chance to run his race in BC Juvenile. Baffert said he needs time to grow and will probably return next March. Derby Points (10).

Shanghai Bobby (Harlan’s Holiday) – BC Juvenile winner and 2yo champ tasted defeat for the first time in the Holy Bull but was hardly disgraced in a clear place finish. I always had my doubts about his stamina and he did nothing to sway my opinion in the Holy Bull. Derby Points (24).

Tizracer (Tiznow) – Improved smartly second time out to romp in flat mile graduation run (92 BSF) at Belmont Park on 9-8. Todd Pletcher trainee attended the pace before weakening to finish 12th in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity. He might not have care for synthetic and deserves a chance to rebound on conventional dirt.

Uncaptured

Uncaptured loses his top ten spot after a pair of foot ailments – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Uncaptured (Lion Heart) – Mark Casse’s Ontario-bred ran his record to 6-for-7 in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. His plans have been altered following a foot bruise and popped abscess, and he is now pointing to the Rushaway, Spiral, or Blue Grass. Derby Points (10).

Injured Reserve

Archwarrior (Arch) – Pletcher’s highly regarded $375k colt was a professional debut winner at Saratoga on 8-30. He finished 4th in the Champagne and was most likely done in by his lack of seasoning. He has not worked since 12-24 and is reportedly getting a break after an undisclosed physical problem. Derby Points (1).

Darwin (Big Brown) – Former exciting prospect and 4th place Nashua finisher is on holiday and could return this summer.

Gulfport (Unbridled’s Song) – Promising Romans trainee is injured and off the Derby trail.

Joha (Johar) – He was pulled from the Keeneland January sale because of a minor injury. He is expected to resume racing later this year.

Micromanage (Medaglia d’Oro) – Finished a distant last in the Remsen. That effort was too bad to believe but that’s back-to-back disappointments after a promising bow. He was reportedly sent to Ocala recently and could return in April if everything goes well.

Rolling Fog (Posse) – Baffert’s G1 Del Mar Futurity hero is sidelined with bucked shins.

CashCall Futurity 2012 Analysis: Will Violence remain unbeaten?

Saturday’s 9th race from Betfair Hollywood Park is the Grade I CashCall Futurity for 2-year-olds traveling a mile and a sixteenth on Cushion Track.

Kentucky Derby 2013

Check out the top Kentucky Derby 2013 contenders at HorseRacingNation.com

BHP 9 (G1 CashCall Futurity, 8.5f)

COMMENTS:

1. He’s Had Enough (9-2) – BC Juvenile runner-up remains eligible for entry level spot.
2. Den’s Legacy (6-1) – G3 Generous hero is 1 of 4 Baffert runners entered here.
3. Dirty Swagg (20-1) – Real Quiet show finished hails from sneaky longshot barn.
4. Carving (8-1) – Real Quiet winner is 2-for-2 on synthetic ground.
5. Fury Kapcori (8-1) – Real Quiet runner-up is out of hot Hollendorfer barn.
6. VIOLENCE (7-2) – Pletcher’s promising colt tries synthetic route for first time.
7. Simon Eyes (12-1) – Wesley Ward’s longshot is training well for this.
8. Really Mr Greely (5-1) – Back-to-back wins including G3 Hollywood Prevue.
9. Title Contender (10-1) – Set the pace and spit the bit in BC Juvenile.
10. Little Jerry (12-1) – Rode late running bias to local route maiden win Nov 18.
11. Oxbow (15-1) – $250k purchase went all the way in 7f affair at CD on Nov 25.

ANALYSIS:

#6 VIOLENCE  (7-2) (7-2) could be any kind for Pletcher. He professionally captured his 7f debut at the Spa and runner-up Titletown Five flattered him with a big fig next out graduation run under the Twin Spires. The $600k son of Medaglia d’Oro came off the bench to take the G2 Nashua last out and is bred to improve with added distance. He projects a tactical trip under Castellano and could easily make it three straight.

#9 Really Mr Greely (5-1) beat highly regarded stablemates Super Ninety Nine and Shakin It Up in a fast renewal of the G3 Hollywood Prevue. He looms a pace factor at the very least in his first start around two turns.

#2 Den’s Legacy (6-1) exits a solid victory in the G3 Generous at a flat mile on the turf. The versatile sort graduated on synthetic and could sit the right ground saving tactical trip at playable odds.

#1 He’s Had Enough (9-2) rallied for the place in a slow renewal of the G1 BC Juvenile. I’ll try to beat the likely underlay.

#9 Title Contender (10-1) set the pace and faded in the aforementioned BC Juvenile.

Several of these (Dirty Swagg, Carving, Fury Kapcori, Simon Eyes) competed in the Real Quiet Stakes, the local prep for this, and number from that heat came back light.

The Plays:

$30 to win #6

$5 Quinella 6/2-9 ($10)

analysis by Jarrod Horak

Kentucky Derby 2013 Contenders – Violence ready for CashCall Futurity

My current third ranked Kentucky Derby 2013 contender Violence can make a run at the top spot with a strong effort in Saturday’s Grade I CashCall Futurity at Betfair Hollywood Park.

Violence, an undefeated son of Medaglia d’Oro, out of Gone West mare Violent Beauty, began his career with a neck victory in a Saratoga extended sprint, and place/show finishers Titletown Five and Orb have both graduated since.

Trainer Bob Baffert

Baffert is expected to start four in the G1 CashCall Futurity – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

The highly regarded Pletcher trainee faced graded rivals second time out and passed that test with flying colors, winning the G2 Nashua by a comfortable two lengths at a flat mile around the Big A oval.

Violence has done everything asked of him up to this point, and now he must ship to SoCal and run on synthetic ground and around two turns for the first time. His CashCall foes are expected to include Carving, Den’s Legacy, Really Mr Greely, and Title Contender, all from the Bob Baffert barn. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up He’s Had Enough is also expected to compete.

Speaking of Bob Baffert, he unveiled exciting prospect Flashback at Hollywood on Saturday. He easily put away promising Shirreffs runner Mentor Cane in the seven panel Cushion Track test.

Click on the names of each horse below (Top 5 contenders) to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.

Jarrod Horak’s Top Ten Kentucky Derby 2013 Contenders

1. Uncaptured (Lion Heart) – Mark Casse’s Ontario-bred ran his record to 6-for-7 in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. He barely clings to the top spot after earning a surprisingly low 76 BSF. Derby Points (10). 

2. Goldencents (Into Mischief) – Champagne runner-up went all the way in the G3 Delta Jackpot. Not sure how far he wants to run but O’Neill should have fun with the speedy sort. Worked 6f in 1:12.80 (2/10) at Santa Anita on 12-7. Derby Points (14).

3. Violence (Medaglia d’Oro) – Based on his strong route pedigree, he is just getting warmed up. He overcame inexperience to capture G2 Nashua and should continue to progress. Pletcher has mentioned the G1 CashCall Futurity on Dec 15 as his next target. Breezed 4f in :50.15 (3/4) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on 12-9.

4. Balance the Books (Lemon Drop Kid) – Graduated in G2 With Anticipation and rallied outside to get up late in the grassy G3 Bourbon (77 BSF). He rallied nicely to just miss the place in the BC Juvenile Turf and the Chad Brown trainee packs a nice late kick.

5. Noble Tune (Unbridled’s Song) – G3 Pilgrim (82 BSF) hero finished a fine 2nd in the BC Juvenile Turf and appears to have a bright future for Chad Brown.

6. Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy) – Followed up facile maiden route win (90 BSF) with a near miss in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. McPeek will give him a little break and he figures to winter in Florida. Derby Points (4).

Power Broker horse

Power Broker gets a breather and will not represent Baffert in the CashCall Futurity – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

7. Power Broker (Pulpit) – $360k purchase graduated in style vs. graded foes in FrontRunner. He raced wide and never got a chance to run his race in BC Juvenile. Baffert was considering the CashCall Futurity but ultimately decided against it. Derby Points (10).

8. Capo Bastone (Street Boss) – Closed into the teeth of a speed bias to snatch 3rd in the FrontRunner, and he pulled the same trick in the BC Juvenile. He has moved to the Pletcher barn in Florida and is expected to make his 3yo bow in the G2 Hutcehson at 7f on 2-2-13. Derby Points (4).

9. Fortify (Distorted Humor) – Debut sprint winner at the Spa followed that up with a 2nd in the G2 Hopeful and a 3rd in G1 Champagne. Lasix-free colt finished a flat 4th in the BC Juvenile and needs time off to grow and mature. Derby Points (3).

10. Overanalyze (Dixie Union) – Pletcher’s versatile colt won his second graded race in the Remsen (99 BSF). Early plans have him contesting the Gotham and Wood Memorial at Aqueduct next year. Derby Points (10).

Exciting Prospects (in alphabetical order):

Delhomme (Dixie Union) – Set the pace and ended up a rock solid 3rd in a fast renewal of the Remsen. He will get a breather at WinStar Farm before returning to the Pletcher barn at Palm Meadows. Derby Points (2).

Flashback (Tapit) – Baffert’s $260k purchase lived up to the hype with a professional 7f debut win under Leparoux at BHP Dec 8. Zazu’s brother cruised past highly regarded Shirreffs colt Mentor Cane (Mizzen Mast).

Little Distorted (Distorted Humor) – Beat heavy favorite Revolutionary in his 6f Belmont bow Oct 28 and the top two were well clear of the rest. Winning BSF of 101. Sold privately to Silverton Farm. New trainer Darrin Miller. Breezed 5f in 1:00.42 (2/17) at Gulfstream on 12-2.

Normandy Invasion (Tapit) – Chad Brown already has two talented turf runners in my top ten and his Remsen runner-up is worth following. The $230k Keeneland sales grad owns a decent late kick. Derby Points (4).

Palace Malice (Curlin) – The Saratoga maiden breaker is off the Injured Reserve list (bucked shins) and is currently back in Pletcher’s barn in Florida. He should return to the worktab shortly.

Former Top Ten Members

Archwarrior (Arch) – Pletcher’s highly regarded $375k colt was a professional debut winner at Saratoga on 8-30. He finished 4th in the Champagne and was most likely done in by his lack of seasoning. He might return to the worktab next week. Derby Points (1).

Gabriel Charles (Street Boss) – 6th in Del Mar Futurity and 7th in FrontRunner. He rebounded smartly in a downhill turf sprint (86 BSF) on the Saturday BC undercard at Santa Anita. He worked 5f in 1:00.40 (7/55) at Hollywood on 12-8.

Know More (Lion Heart) – FrontRunner place finisher was 13th in the BC Juvenile Turf and 8th in the Delta Jackpot. He has been terribly mismanaged since the FrontRunner and needs time to regroup. Derby Points (4).

Micromanage (Medaglia d’Oro) – Finished a distant last in the Remsen. That effort was too bad to believe but that’s back-to-back disappointments after a promising bow. He remains in New York and is scheduled to make his next start at the Big A on Jan 5.

Pataky Kid (Rockport Harbor) – G3 Arlington-Washington Futurity hero finished 4th in G1 Breeders’ Futurity and 5th after hopping at start (blinkers on) in G3 Iroquois. Derby Points – (1)

Shanghai Bobby (Harlan’s Holiday) – Made it 5-for-5 with a determined win in the G1 BC Juvenile (82 BSF). I always had my doubts about his stamina and he does not want to go beyond 8.5f based on his slow Juvenile effort. He is expected to make his 3yo bow in the Holy Bull at the Gulf on Jan 26. Derby Points (20).  

Tizracer (Tiznow) – Improved smartly second time out to romp in flat mile graduation run (92 BSF) at Belmont Park on 9-8. Todd Pletcher trainee attended the pace before weakening to finish 12th in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity. He might not have care for synthetic and deserves a chance to rebound on conventional dirt.

Injured Reserve

Rolling Fog (Posse) – Baffert’s G1 Del Mar Futurity hero is out for 60 days with bucked shins.

Titletown Five (Tiznow) – Facile 7f tally (97 BSF) under Twin Spires in his 4th start. Bone chip has sidelined the Lukas trainee.

Kentucky Derby 2013 Contenders – Is Shanghai Bobby a Derby horse?

Shanghai Bobby wrapped up the two-year-old championship with a determined victory in the BC Juvenile but his Kentucky Derby 2013 contender stock plummeted, along with the rest of the Juvenile field.

Shanghai Bobby

Likely 2YO champ Shanghai Bobby looks like a Kentucky Derby pretender – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

To be blunt, this was an ugly renewal of the BC Juvenile. It was the third slowest Juvenile ever and the BSF came back a modest 82, the lowest of the 2-day, 15-race BC programs. The lasix-free colts staggered through the stretch, getting the final quarter in a pedestrian :27.50 seconds…yikes!

Shanghai Bobby figured to regress in longer races. After all, trainer Todd Pletcher started him at 4.5f in April of his 2-year-old season, hardly a sign of confidence from a well-known Derby barn, and his pedigree hardly screams nine panels let alone ten on the first Saturday in May. The deserving 2yo champ clearly has determination and a nose for the wire but his luck will almost certainly run out next spring and beyond. He drops out of my top ten.

He’s Has Enough had some traffic stops along the way to a surprising place finish for last year’s dynamic Derby trio of Reddam, O’Neill, and Gutierrez. He ended up missing by a head and probably wins the Juvenile with clear sailing.

Capo Bastone basically ran the same race that he did in the FrontRunner, sitting back and clunking up for the show. Trainer John Sadler said that he bled a 3 on a scale of 5 and will be evaluated before any future plans are made.

Fortify drifted out early, raced wide, and had every chance in the lane but could only manage 4th.

Power Broker

Power Broker got hung out to dry in BC Juvenile – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Power Broker was carried out wide from the outside post by Fortify and remained wide in a throw out effort. Baffert had bad karma throughout the 2-day BC and this colt never got a fair chance to strut his stuff on Saturday.

Title Contender attempted a wire job in the Juvenile but caved quickly when pressured.

Last year’s BC Juvenile was a strong race that produced many subsequent graded winners: Alpha (Jim Dandy, Travers), Creative Cause (San Felipe), Daddy Long Legs (UAE Derby), Drill (San Vicente), Dullahan (Blue Grass, Pacific Classic), Fort Loudon (Carry Back), Hansen (Gotham), Optimizer (Kent), Prospective (Tampa Bay Derby), Take Charge Indy (Florida Derby), and Union Rags (Fountain of Youth, Belmont Stakes). The 2012 Juvenile entrants have a long way to go to match the class of 2011, and, despite future success, last year’s Juvenile did not produce the Derby winner.

Chad Brown’s BC Juvenile Turf duo of Noble Tune and Balance the Books finished a more than respectable 2-3 behind impressive overseas shipper George Vancouver (87 BSF). The winner, trained by Aidan O’Brien, is a KY-bred son of Henrythenavigator, out of Versailles Treaty. I would like to see all three of those colts try conventional dirt in the future.

From the what were they thinking file, Know More flopped as expected from post 13 in the Juvenile Turf. He raced wide throughout and would have been up against it from any post because he had no turf experience against an international field of quality, proven grass foes. He should have run in the BC Juvenile.

In the G2 Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct, Violence (86 BSF), trained by Todd Pletcher, ran his record to 2-for-2 with an outside stalk and pounce tally. He owns a promising pedigree and is worth following. Stablemate Darwin was the beaten favorite from the rail. He was in tight in the lane but was going nowhere and did not run to expectations.

Click on the names of each horse below (Top 5 contenders) to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.

Jarrod Horak’s Top Ten Kentucky Derby 2013 Contenders

1. Uncaptured (Lion Heart) – Mark Casse’s Ontario-bred ran his record to 5-for-6 in the G3 Iroquois (90 BSF). He finished a troubled 5th in his lone two turn outing and will get another route chance in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at CD on 11-24.

2. Goldencents (Into Mischief) – Sharp debut win (93 BSF) for Doug O’Neill/Leandro Mora on 9-2. Set the pace and gamely held the place in Belmont’s Champagne. Worked 6f in 1:12.60 (2/13) at Santa Anita on 11-7. The G3 Delta Jackpot (Nov 17) is next. Derby Points (4).

Balance the Books

Will Balance the Books switch surfaces and hop on the Derby trail next year? – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

3. Balance the Books (Lemon Drop Kid) – Graduated in G2 With Anticipation and rallied outside to get up late in the grassy G3 Bourbon (77 BSF). He rallied nicely to just miss the place in the BC Juvenile Turf and the Chad Brown trainee packs a nice late kick.

4. Noble Tune (Unbridled’s Song) – G3 Pilgrim (82 BSF) hero finished a fine 2nd in the BC Juvenile Turf and appears to have a bright future for Chad Brown.

5. Micromanage (Medaglia d’Oro) – Cruised in Saratoga bow for Pletcher and his lack of seasoning and wide trip cost him in the Champagne. He is still a promising, long term prospect. He breezed 5f in 1:01.85 (21/49) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on 11-11.

6. Violence (Medaglia d’Oro) – Based on his strong route pedigree, he is just getting warmed up. Overcame inexperience to capture G2 Nashua and he should continue to progress for Pletcher.

7. Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy) – Played hide and go seek in a facile graduation run (90 BSF) at 8.5f from post 12 at CD on 11-3. Ken McPeek’s colt is a possibility for the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.

8. Power Broker (Pulpit) – $360k purchase graduated in style vs. graded foes in FrontRunner. He raced wide and never got a chance to run his race in BC Juvenile. Derby Points (10).

9. Fortify (Distorted Humor) – Debut sprint winner at the Spa followed that up with a 2nd in the G2 Hopeful and a 3rd in G1 Champagne. Lasix-free colt finished a flat 4th in the BC Juvenile and needs time off to grow and mature. Derby Points (3).

10. Capo Bastone (Street Boss) – Closed into the teeth of a speed bias to snatch 3rd in the FrontRunner, and he pulled the same trick in the BC Juvenile. John Sadler’s colt bled in the Cup. Derby Points (4).

Exciting Prospects (in alphabetical order):

Delhomme (Dixie Union) – Gamely went all the way in flat mile maiden win at Belmont Park Oct 13 and he earned a solid 93 BSF. Another promising Pletcher trainee.

Little Distorted (Distorted Humor) – Beat heavy favorite Revolutionary in his 6f Belmont bow Oct 28 and the top two were well clear of the rest. Winning BSF of 101. Michael Mareina trains the WinStar Farm bred colt.

Revolutionary (War Pass) – Clearly second best to aforementioned Little Distorted last time. He earned a 95 BSF and won’t be a maiden much longer for Pletcher. He’s out of an AP Indy mare and is owned by WinStar Farm.

Super Ninety Nine (Pulpit) – Professional 7f debut win at SA on 10-7. He scratched out of the BC Juvenile Sprint after getting cast in his stall. He worked 4f in :47.40 (2/36) at Santa Anita on 11-8.

Titletown Five (Tiznow) – Facile 7f tally (97 BSF) under Twin Spires in his 4th start. Lukas will give him every chance to make the gate on the first Saturday in May.

Former Top Ten Members

Archwarrior (Arch) – Pletcher’s highly regarded $375k colt was a professional debut winner at Saratoga on 8-30. He finished 4th in the Champagne and was most likely done in by his lack of seasoning. He should prosper in future route races. Breezed 4f in :47.67 (5/76) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on 10-22. Derby Points (1). 

Gabriel Charles (Street Boss) – 6th in Del Mar Futurity and 7th in FrontRunner. He rebounded smartly in a downhill turf sprint (86 BSF) on the Saturday BC undercard at Santa Anita.

Know More (Lion Heart) – Distant 2nd to Power Broker in FrontRunner, his first conventional dirt/two turn outing. He inexplicably switched surfaces and had no shot with a rough trip from post 13 in the BC Juvenile Turf. He might wheel back in the Delta Jackpot. Derby Points (4). 

Pataky Kid (Rockport Harbor) – G3 Arlington-Washington Futurity hero finished 4th in G1 Breeders’ Futurity and 5th after hopping at start (blinkers on) in G3 Iroquois. Derby Points – (1)

Shanghai Bobby (Harlan’s Holiday) – Made it 5-for-5 with a determined win in the G1 BC Juvenile (82 BSF). I always had my doubts about his stamina and he does not want to go beyond 8.5f based on his slow Juvenile win. Derby Points (20).  

Tizracer (Tiznow) – Improved smartly second time out to romp in flat mile graduation run (92 BSF) at Belmont Park on 9-8. Todd Pletcher trainee attended the pace before weakening to finish 12th in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity. He might not have care for synthetic and deserves a chance to rebound on conventional dirt.

Injured Reserve

Palace Malice (Curlin) – Smart second time out maiden tally for Pletcher at the Spa on 8-4. He is out of action with bucked shins.

Rolling Fog (Posse) – Baffert’s G1 Del Mar Futurity hero is out for 60 days with bucked shins.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile 2012 analysis – Fortify can surprise

Saturday’s 8th race from Santa Anita Park is the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile for 2-year-olds traveling a mile and a sixteenth on the main track.

Check out my Saturday (Nov 3) Breeders’ Cup analysis (available now) at TodaysRacingDigest.com. Upcoming analysis – Breeders’ Cup from Santa Anita (Nov 3) and Churchill Saturdays (Nov 10, 17, 24).

Derby Wars

Play Saturday’s $30k BC November Shootout at DerbyWars.com

SA 8 (G1 BC Juvenile, 8.5f)

COMMENTS:

1. Title Contender (6-1) – Rode SA speed bias to sharp wire job Sept 29.
2. Speak Logistics (8-1) – Back-to-back wire jobs at Monmouth & Calder.
3. He’s Had Enough (20-1) – Late runner never fired in G1 Breeders’ Futurity.
4. Shanghai Bobby (2-1) – 4-for-4 in one turn NY races.
5. Monument (12-1) – Crawled home in Cal Cup Classic win.
6. Dynamic Sky (12-1) – Improving colt landed place in Breeders’ Futurity.
7. Capo Bastone (15-1) – Rallying show finish against the bias in G1 FrontRunner.
8. FORTIFY (9-2) – Lasix-free colt was no match for Shanghai Bobby in NY.
9. Power Broker (5-2) – Smartly earned diploma in FrontRunner romp.

ANALYSIS:

#8 FORTIFY owns an ascending numbers pattern and is bred to improve as distances increase. Dominguez got to know him last time and his grinding tactical style should play well around two turns. The no lasix rule won’t hurt him and the price should be right.

#9 Power Broker sat an outer tactical trip in the G1 FrontRunner and the $360k purchase sure took to conventional dirt that day. He should sit a similar trip today and a G1 win at this course/distance makes him the one to beat.

#1 Title Contender beat next out winner Code West (also Baffert) Sept 29 and he ran faster than FrontRunner hero and stablemate Power Broker. He might flee the rail and forget to stop under Martin Garcia, and he rates higher if early speed is strong.

#4 Shanghai Bobby has done everything right so far. He started his career in April and his seasoning edge should start to evaporate in the near future. He has to ship across country without lasix and go two turns for the first time at underlaid odds. He deserves the 2yo title if he wins this.

#7 Capo Bastone finished a better than appears 3rd over a speed friendly surface last time. He rates a longshot look underneath if he gets pace help over a fair surface.

WAGERS:

#8 to win

Exacta 8/1-9

Exacta 1-9/8

Trifecta 1-4-8-9/1-4-8-9/7