Posts Tagged ‘Tencendur’

Ohio Derby Analysis Featuring Divining Rod (Video)

The 2015 Ohio Derby has a purse of $500,000 and drew a 9-horse field including Preakness show finisher Divining Rod.

ohio derby capture

Six of the nine Ohio Derby entrants competed in the Kentucky Derby and/or Preakness Stakes (Far Right, Divining Rod, War Story, Tencendur, Mr. Z, and Bodhisattva) and three of the top contenders won graded races this year: Whiskey Ticket (G3 Illinois Derby), Far Right (G3 Southwest), Divining Rod (G3 Lexington).

 

KENTUCKY DERBY 2015 Contenders: The Final Countdown

Post positions have been selected and the field has been set for Kentucky Derby 2015. I have posted odds and post positions below.

The Derby blog began last September and my final “Exceptional Eleven” rankings are listed below. It has been an especially fun ride this year with five of my contenders from September making the Derby cut.

Stanford scratched, allowing #21 Frammento to make the Derby starting gate.

ky-derby-draw_615x400

El Kabeir missed his morning gallop on Friday, May 1 and seems to have a tender left foot. His Derby status will be determined Saturday morning.

I will continue to follow the current sophomore class through the Triple Crown series and beyond, and my 2016 Kentucky Derby contenders blog will debut after Del Mar & Saratoga in September.

Click on the names of each horse below (Top 5) to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2015 Contenders

  1. CARPE DIEM (Giant’s Causeway – Rebridled Dreams, by Unbridled’s Song) carpe diem silks

Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Owner: WinStar Farm & Stonestreet Stables

Latest Published Workout: 4f in :48.60 (2/63) at Keeneland on April 25.

Last Start: 1st in G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 4.

Comments: He’s been part of my list since last September and has occupied the top spot for more than four months. The feeling here is that we have not seen his best but he might have a tough go of it from post 2.

Derby Points (164)

  1. DORTMUND (Big Brown – Our Josephina, by Tale of the Cat) dortmund silks

Trainer: Bob Baffert – Owner: Kaleem Shah, Inc.

Latest Published Workout: 6f in 1:13.60 (19/33) at Santa Anita on April 25.

Last Start: 1st in G1 SA Derby on April 4.

Comments: The undefeated Derby contender elevated his game to new heights in back-to-back graded wire jobs in the San Felipe and SA Derby. The massive colt owns early-pressing versatility and cruised in his lone Churchill start. He is training forwardly and did well landing post 8.

Derby Points (170)

  1. INTERNATIONAL STAR (Fusaichi Pegasus – Parlez, by French Deputy) international star silks

Trainer: Michael Maker – Owner: Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey

Latest Published Workout: 4f in 50.80 (11/12) at Churchill Training on April 25.

Last Start: 1st in G2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on Saturday, March 28.

Comments: My original #1 ranked Ky Derby contender when I started this list Sept. ’14. The very experienced Derby contender began his career last June. He keeps getting better but needs further improvement to make a splash on the first Saturday in May. I love his professionalism and he drew favorably in post 12.    

Derby Points (171)

  1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (Pioneerof The Nile – Littleprincessemma, by Yankee Gentleman) american pharoah silks

Trainer: Bob Baffert – Owner: Zayat Stables

Latest Published Workout: 5f bullet in 58.80 (1/33) at Churchill Downs on April 26.

Last Start: 1st in the G1 Arkansas Derby.

Comments: The 2YO Champ did not break a sweat in the Rebel or Arkansas Derby and heads to Churchill Downs as the Kentucky Derby favorite. He has looked sensational in the mornings and will break from post 18.

Derby Points (160)

  1. FROSTED (Tapit – Fast Cookie, by Deputy Minister) frosted silks

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin – Owner: Godolphin Racing

Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:01.10 (2/9) at Palm Meadows on April 25.

Last Start: 1st in G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 4.

Comments: He’s the fourth member of my original list from September and I played him Derby Future Pool 1. He showed a new closing dimension in the Wood Memorial and did the bulk of his Kentucky Derby preparations in Florida. He will break from the auxiliary gate in post 15 and should have plenty of room to maneuver.

Derby Points (113)

  1. EL KABEIR (Scat Daddy – Great Venue, by Unbridled’s Song) el kabeir silks

Trainer: John Terranova II – Owner: Zayat Stables

Latest Published Workout: 4f in :46.81 (3/55) at Belmont Park on April 25.

Last Start: 3rd in G1 Wood Memorial on April 4.

Comments: The 5th and final member of my original Derby list. Nothing bothers the versatile, consistent sort and he certainly brings plenty of experience to the table. He will leave from post 7 and you know Borel will find the rail at some point. He seemingly has a foot bruise and is not certain to compete in the Derby.

Derby Points (95)

  1. FIRING LINE (Line of David – Sister Girl Blues, by Hold for Gold) firing line silks

Trainer: Simon Callaghan – Owner: Arnold Zetcher

Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:02.20 (51/59) at Santa Anita on April 25.

Last Start: 1st in G3 Sunland Derby on March 22.

Comments: After two grueling defeats to Dortmund, he cruised to a very easy win at Sunland. The Kentucky Derby will be his first start in six weeks. Jockey Gary Stevens was ecstatic after getting post 10. He is training well and if you like Dortmund, you will be getting a contender with similar ability at four times the price as the Baffert trainee.

Derby Points (58)

  1. UPSTART (Flatter – Party Silks, by Touch Gold) upstart silks

Trainer: Richard Violette – Owner: Ralph M. Evans

Latest Published Workout: 5f bullet in :59.95 (1/9) at Palm Meadows on April 25.

Last Start: 2nd in G1 Florida Derby on March 28.

Comments: Spiked a fever and missed a workout earlier in April but bounced back with two bullets on April 17 & 25. He owns competitive speed figures but must overcome post 19. I will like his chances more when the Belmont Stakes rolls around.

Derby Points (76)

  1. MATERIALITY (Afleet Alex – Wildwood Flower, by Langfuhr) materiality silks

Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Owner: Alto Racing, LLC.

Latest Published Workout: 4f in :48 (7/78) at Churchill Downs on April 24.

Last Start: 1st in G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on March 28.

Comments: The last unraced 2-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby was Apollo in 1882. He earned a 110 BSF in the G1 Florida Derby and looms a pace player on the first Saturday in May. He must overcome a lack of experience and post 3 on Derby Day.

Derby Points (100)

  1. WAR STORY (Northern Afleet – Belle Watling, by Pulpit) war story silks

Trainer: Tom Amoss – Owner: Loooch Racing Stable

Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:02 (7/20) at Churchill Downs on April 22.

Last Start: 3rd in G2 LA Derby on March 28.

Comments: Hard-knocking gelding earned his way into the Kentucky Derby with a 2nd in the G3 Lecomte, another 2nd in the G2 Risen Star, and a 3rd in the G2 LA Derby. The 50-1 longshot will leave from gate 16.

Derby Points (44)

  1. MUBTAAHIJ (Dubawi – Pennegale, by Pennekamp) Mubtaahij silks

Trainer: Michael F. de Kock – Owner: Sheikh Mohammad bin Khalifa al Maktoum

Latest Published Workout: 3f in :37.40 (10/15) at Churchill Downs on April 30.

Last Start: 1st UAE Derby.

Comments: The Irish-bred mystery horse is traveling across the globe for a shot at Derby glory. Trainer Mike de Kock is one of the best in the world. He will break from post position 6.

Derby Points (100)

The Rest of the Derby Field: Far Right, Bolo, Itsaknockout, Ocho Ocho Ocho, Danzig Moon, Tencendur, Mr. Z, Keen Ice, Frammento. Stanford (scratched). Also-eligible Tale of Verve will not make the Derby field.

SATURDAY’S KENTUCKY DERBY DAY (MAY 2) full card analysis from Churchill Downs is now available to purchase at:

The Runaway Horse

Upcoming full cards: Santa Anita weekends (May 2-3). PREAKNESS DAY (May 16) analysis from Pimlico coming soon! Every full card includes suggested Early Pick 4, Pick 5, Pick 6, and Late Pick 4 spread tickets.

Weekend full card recaps with highlights are posted on The Runaway Horse What You Missed page

Kentucky Derby 2015: SA Derby video + Wood Memorial analysis

KENTUCKY DERBY 2015 Contenders: SA Derby video

Santa Anita Derby favorite Dortmund makes his final Kentucky Derby 2015 trail prep start and tries to stay unbeaten on Saturday at Santa Anita Park.

Dortmund has already qualified for the Kentucky Derby on points but his main rivals have not so look for Prospect Park, Bolo, and One Lucky Dane to put everything on the line at the Great Race Place.

The G1 Wood Memorial features NY lover El Kabeir vs. Florida shippers Daredevil and Frosted.

Daredevil horse

Daredevil is the Wood Memorial favorite – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

#4 FROSTED (5-2) looked like he was on his way to a facile victory in the FOY but he inexplicably came to a stop in the stretch. The Gulfstream Park main track was very strange on the FOY and Florida Derby Day and McLaughlin did the right thing getting out of dodge. He is proven at Aqueduct, switches to Rosario, and might bounce back in a big way. He’s my top selection.

#6 Daredevil (9-5) loves the Belmont goo and clearly relishes one turn races. He has put up some big numbers but only has one start at seven panels in 5+ months and must prove himself around two turns.

#5 El Kabeir (3-1) owns running style versatility and always runs his race. He will be there to pick up the pieces if Frosted and-or Daredevil stub their toe.

#1 Tiz Shea D (8-1) has a ton of upside and sports a strong pedigree but I am expecting much more from the lightly raced G3 Gotham runner-up later this year.

The Wood Memorial field is completed by outsiders #2 Toasting Master (20-1), #3 Lieutenant Colonel (15-1), and #7 Tencendur (12-1).

A final note about the Wood Memorial. Far From Over was originally pointing to the Wood but came up with an injury and is off the Derby trail.

Suggested 2015 Wood Memorial Wagers:

$24 to win #4

$5 Exacta 5, 6 over 4 ($10)

$1 Trifecta Key 7 over 1, 5, 6 ($6)

Graded Recaps

G1 Florida Derby (110 BSF): Materiality ran his record to 3-for-3 with a solid win over Upstart but I am not buying the inflated speed figure. Upstart had his number taken down in an ugly renewal of the FOY and I was not impressed with the stretch run of the Florida Derby either. The Gulfstream Park main track was odd to say the least and I do not know what to make of the Kentucky Derby contenders exiting that oval.

G2 Louisiana Derby (98 BSF): International Star completed a sweep of the two turn graded Derby preps at Fair Grounds with a determined, hard fought win over Stanford in the LA Derby. War Story finished 3rd.

Click on the names of each horse below (Top 5) to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2015 Contenders

  1. CARPE DIEM (Giant’s Causeway – Rebridled Dreams, by Unbridled’s Song) carpe diem silks

Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Owner: WinStar Farm & Stonestreet Stables

Latest Published Workout: 4f in :47.98 (3/19) at Palm Beach Downs on March 28.

Last Start: 1st in G2 Tampa Bay Derby on March 7.

Comments: He looks like a complete standout in the G1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday, April 4.

Derby Points (64)

  1. DORTMUND (Big Brown – Our Josephina, by Tale of the Cat) dortmund silks

Trainer: Bob Baffert – Owner: Kaleem Shah, Inc.

Latest Published Workout: 6f in 1:11.60 (3/31) at Santa Anita on March 28.

Last Start: 1st in G2 San Felipe on March 7.

Comments: After back-to-back grueling efforts, he got a much needed easy wire job win in the San Felipe. He is the strong G1 SA Derby favorite.

Derby Points (70)

  1. INTERNATIONAL STAR (Fusaichi Pegasus – Parlez, by French Deputy) international star silks

Trainer: Michael Maker – Owner: Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey

Last Start: 1st in G2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on Saturday, March 28.

Comments: My original #1 ranked Ky Derby contender when I started this list Sept. ’14. He keeps getting better but needs further improvement to make a splash on the first Saturday in May.

Derby Points (171)

  1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (Pioneerof The Nile – Littleprincessemma, by Yankee Gentleman) american pharoah silks

Trainer: Bob Baffert – Owner: Zayat Stables

Latest Published Workout: 5f in :58.60 (2/88) at Santa Anita on March 29.

Last Start: 1st in the G2 Rebel Stakes.

Comments: Controlled the pace in all three of his graded wins and will return to Oaklawn for his final Derby prep in the Arkansas Derby.

Derby Points (60)

  1. EL KABEIR (Scat Daddy – Great Venue, by Unbridled’s Song) el kabeir silks

Trainer: John Terranova II – Owner: Zayat Stables

Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:01.12 (2/28) at Belmont (dirt training) on March 30.

Last Start: 1st in G3 Gotham Stakes on March 7.

Comments: He added a new closing weapon to his arsenal in the Gotham Stakes. The Wood Memorial is his final Derby prep.

Derby Points (75)

  1. FIRING LINE (Line of David – Sister Girl Blues, by Hold for Gold) firing line silks

Trainer: Simon Callaghan – Owner: Arnold Zetcher

Last Start: 1st in G3 Sunland Derby on March 22.

Comments: After two grueling defeats to Dortmund, he cruised to an effortless tally in New Mexico and has wrapped up his Derby prep campaign.

Derby Points (58)

  1. UPSTART (Flatter – Party Silks, by Touch Gold) upstart silks

Trainer: Richard Violette – Owner: Ralph M. Evans

Last Start: 2nd in G1 Florida Derby on March 28.

Comments: Gem of consistency exits the baffling Gulfstream Park Ky Derby prep series.

Derby Points (76)

  1. FROSTED (Tapit – Fast Cookie, by Deputy Minister) frosted silks

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin – Owner: Godolphin Racing

Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:00.45 (2/15) at Palm Meadows on March 29.

Last Start: Fading 4th in G2 Fountain of Youth.

Comments: He returns to his favorite track to compete in the Wood Memorial.

Derby Points (13)

  1. DAREDEVIL (More Than Ready – Chasethewildwind, by Forty Niner) daredevil silks

Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Owner: Let’s Go Stable

Latest Published Workout: 4f in :48.45 (23/89) at Belmont (dirt training) on March 29.

Last Start: 2nd in G2 Swale at Gulfstream Park on March 7.

Comments: He is the Wood Memorial favorite but still has some questions to answer Saturday.

Derby Points (10)

  1. PROSPECT PARK (Tapit – Quiet Romance, by Bertrando) prospect park silks

Trainer: Clifford Sise Jr. – Owner: Martin & Pam Wygod

Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:01.20 (46/83) at Santa Anita on March 28.

Last Start: 2nd in G2 San Felipe on March 7.

Comments: Rapidly improving colt finished well for the place in the San Felipe. He is training well for the SA Derby.

Derby Points (20)

  1. MATERIALITY (Afleet Alex – Wildwood Flower, by Langfuhr) materiality silks

Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Owner: Alto Racing, LLC.

Last Start: 1st in G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on March 28.

Comments: The last unraced 2-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby was Apollo in 1882.

Derby Points (100)

Honorable Mention: (12) Far Right, (13) War Story, (14) Classy Class, (15) The Truth Or Else, (16) Ami’s Flatter, (17) Bolo, (18) Dubai Sky, (19) Itsaknockout, (20) Ocho Ocho Ocho, (21) One Lucky Dane, (22) Stanford, (23) Conquest Typhoon, (24) Madefromlucky, (25) Tiz Shea D