Posts Tagged ‘Seven Lively Sins’

Lecomte Stakes 2012 Preview: Will Hammers Terror scare up a win?

The road to Kentucky Derby 2012 gets underway on Saturday at Fair Grounds with their first graded route for the 3-year-old set, the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes. The one mile and seventy yard affair has attracted a baker’s dozen and Hammers Terror figures to offer value at 6-1 on the line.

Kentucky Derby 2012

#8 HAMMERS TERROR (6-1) has earned quality Final Time Ratings in all three starts and I like his tactical burst away speed. He is a nose away from a perfect 3-for-3 record.

#4 Mr. Bowling (8-1) was making nice progress from a numbers standpoint prior to finishing a flat 3rd as the beaten favorite when last seen in the flat mile G3 Iroquois at Churchill in November. He earned his best Final Time Rating around two turns and could be poised to fire a fresh shot for Larry Jones.

#3 Ted’s Folly (10-1) has rattled off six straight and is a nice success story. He won the Springboard Mile last time and runner-up Reckless Jerry just missed in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn on Jan 16 while show finisher Pee H Dee came back to win an allowance race at Oaklawn on the same day.

{Keep up with all of the Kentucky Derby 2012 trail workouts}

#10 Capetown Devil (6-1) is 3-for-3 and has earned a Stakes shot after working his way from Maiden Claiming to Starter Allowance to Optional Claiming. The improving gelding projects a tactical trip.

#11 Shared Property (4-1) flashed ability as a juvenile for Amoss but he is stuck out in post 13 and has not raced in more than three months.

Exfactor

Can Exfactor get two turns in Lecomte? - photo by Eclipse Sportswire

#5 Exfactor (5-1) was all out to win by a nose in his dirt sprint return. He stretches out 2nd off the shelf and is a bounce candidate.

#6 Seven Lively Sins (9-2) exits a weak renewal of the G3 Delta Jackpot. He did beat Mr. Bowling in the Iroquois and might be best around one turn. The Al Stall Jr. trainee looms a pace factor at the very least.

#2 Dan And Shelia (6-1) captured his flat mile bow at Gulfstream for Pletcher. The $150,000 son of More Than Ready tries two turns in his first start against winners and gives up a seasoning edge in this spot.

#2b Z Dager (6-1) exits a course/distance maiden win in the slop for Asmussen. This is an ambitious placement for the recent graduate.

#1 Adena’s Chance (20-1) and #1a Hero of Order (20-1) both seem up against it, along with #7 Alexander Thegreat (30-1) and #9 Chalybeate Springs (20-1).

THE PLAYS:

$12 to win #8

$1 Trifecta 3-4-8/3-4-8/3-4-8-10-11 ($18) 

Delta Downs Jackpot 2011 Preview: Can Drill Rebound?

The Grade 3, $1 Million Delta Jackpot has the purse power to guarantee the winner a starting spot in the 2012 Kentucky Derby, and headlining the Delta Downs showcase is Grade 1 winner Drill.

Drill

Drill puts blinkers back on in Delta Jackpot - photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Bob Baffert’s Drill, a juvenile son of Lawyer Ron, finished a non-threatening 8th as the even money favorite in his synthetic sprint bow at Del Mar. He ran two more times at the seaside oval with a maiden victory and a game tally in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity.

He stretched out in Santa Anita’s Grade 1 Norfolk and was clearly second best behind Creative Cause. He was last seen finishing up the track in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (blinkers off) and he may not have cared for the sticky, drying out track.

The $300,000 Keeneland sales grad returned to Southern California after his failed Kentucky journey and he fired a three furlong bullet in :35.40 at Santa Anita Park on Nov 14. He ran his best three races with blinkers on and Baffert reintroduces him to the hood on Saturday. The Delta Downs bullring is tricky to handle and Drill attempts to rebound after running poorly two weeks ago.

Longview Drive and Seven Lively Sins figure to carve out the fractions from the inside with Basmati, My Adonis, and Dougs Buddy chasing. Tiz Moe, Drill, Sabercat, and Jake Mo should be sitting in the next flight with the latter trying to work out a forwardly placed trip from the outside box. Laurie’s Rocket does his best running late but did show improved positional speed with the addition of blinkers at Churchill Downs last time.

My ideal Delta Jackpot contender will break from post 2-7 and sit a decent tactical trip. Drill fits that bill but will not offer value. My Adonis easily won the local prep for this and is a much better morning line price at 4-1. Tiz Moe was clearly second best in the local Jean Lafitte and has plenty of upside with only two races under his belt. His 15-1 price is right as well.

In the end, I am a fan of Drill and would like to see him run well but from a wagering standpoint I will pick My Adonis to win and play him in an exacta box with Tiz Moe.