Posts Tagged ‘Reveron’

KENTUCKY DERBY 2012 Contenders – Union Rags still on top

There were surprises galore on the Kentucky Derby 2012 trail last weekend with Take Charge Indy going all the way in the G1 Florida Derby and 109-1 bomb Hero of Order stunning his rivals in the G2 Louisiana Derby.

Kentucky Derby 2012 logo

I recapped the G1 Florida Derby here on Sunday and in the video below. I have always liked Union Rags and am not going to abandon ship after a less than ideal trip behind tepid splits in his final Derby prep. Julien Leparoux could not do much after he committed to taking back early, coupled with getting pinned down along the inside by El Padrino’s rider Javier Castellano.

Union Rags finished up nicely after finding room in the lane and almost caught Reveron for the place. He galloped out in front and horse/rider should move forward following that learning experience. In reality, he qualified for the Derby on graded earnings long ago, so Saturday’s race was meaningless from that standpoint. He remains a solid contender on the first Saturday in May as long as he trains well leading up to the big day.

Click on the names of each horse below to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.

Jarrod Horak’s Top Ten Kentucky Derby 2012 Contenders

1. Union Rags (Dixie Union) – My longtime top ranked Derby contender remains #1 after a troubled show finish in the G1 Florida Derby. I will monitor him closely in the weeks leading up to the Derby to see how he training. Graded Earnings: $1,170,000

Alpha horse

Alpha runs in Saturday's G1 Wood Memorial - photo by Eclipse Sportswire

2. Alpha (Bernardini) – Went back-to-back at the Big A in Count Fleet and Withers. Breezed 4f in :49.17 (6/21) at Palm Meadows on March 30. The G1 Wood Memorial on 4-7 is next. Graded Earnings: $180,000

3. Gemologist (Tiznow) – G2 Ky Jockey Club hero returned in the pink at the Gulf on March 16. The undefeated WinStar Farm/Todd Pletcher runner fired a 5f bullet in 1:00.44 (1/9) at Palm Meadows on April 1. Saturday’s G1 Wood Memorial is next. Graded Earnings: $103,855

4. Creative Cause (Giant’s Causeway) – Captured his second graded route in G2 San Felipe (102 BSF) at Santa Anita on 3-10. He breezed 4f in :48.40 (5/14) at Hollywood Park on 4-3 and goes next in Saturday’s G1 SA Derby. Graded Earnings: $686,000

5. Hansen (Tapit) – BC Juvenile hero relaxed nicely in sharp G3 Gotham tally. He breezed 5f in :59.80 (2/10) at Churchill (training track) on 3-31. The G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 14 in next on the docket. Graded Earnings: $1,400,000

6. Secret Circle (Eddington) – Captured back-to-back graded routes at Oaklawn in G3 Southwest (102 BSF) and G2 Rebel (92 BSF). He drilled a 5f bullet in :58.40 (1/37) at Santa Anita on 3-29 and is expected to return to Hot Springs for the G1 Arkansas Derby on April 14. Graded Earnings: $470,000

7. Take Charge Indy (A. P. Indy) – Stole the Florida Derby but could only muster a 95 BSF despite everything going his way. I have always been fond of this one but he could be a pace casualty on the first Saturday in May. Graded Earnings: $698,400

8. Daddy Nose Best (Scat Daddy) – Back-to-back nine furlong wins in G3 El Camino Real Derby (92 BSF) and G3 Sunland Derby (100 BSF). Late running Asmussen trainee can run on anything. Graded Earnings: $545,558

9. El Padrino (Pulpit) – Finished a flat 4th in a very disappointing Florida Derby performance. He is on the graded earnings bubble and seemingly moves up on wet footing. Graded Earnings: $250,000

10. Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen) – Almost upset El Padrino in his G2 Risen Star route/stakes bow. Fired 5f bullet in 1:00.60 (1/14) at Fair Grounds on 3-27. Sunday’s G2 Louisiana Derby is next. Graded Earnings: $260,000

Exciting Prospects (in alphabetical order)

Bodemeister

Bodemeister is likely for the G1 Arkansas Derby on April 14 - photo by Eclipse Sportswire

1. Bodemeister (Empire Maker) – Followed up 101 BSF maiden romp with another 101 BSF in San Felipe runner-up effort on 3-10. He zipped 6f in 1:10.40 (1/9) at Santa Anita on 4-2 and looms a serious prominent throughout player in the Arkansas Derby on 4-14. Graded Earnings: $60,000

2. Currency Swap (High Cotton) – G1 Hopeful hero was clearly second best behind romping, undefeated colt Gemologist at the Gulf on 3-16. Breezed 5f in 1:00 (2/9) at Gulfstream on 3-27 and goes next in G3 Illinois Derby on 4-7. Graded Earnings: $150,000

3. Midnight Transfer (Hard Spun) – Ended up a respectable 3rd in his G2 San Felipe, his first start around two turns. He fired a 6f bullet at Santa Anita on March 30 and goes next in the G1 SA Derby on April 7.

4. Prospective (Malibu Moon) – Professional winner of the G2 Tampa Bay Derby (88 BSF) for Mark Casse. Blinkers helped him get involved earlier and he will face better next time in G1 Blue Grass. Breezed 5f in 1:01.20 (2/5) at Churchill Downs on 4-2.

5. Went The Day Well (Proud Citizen) – Followed in Animal Kingdom’s footsteps with a win in the G3 Spiral Stakes (92 BSF) for Motion/Team Valor. He was green in the stretch and might run one more time before the Derby, with the G3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on 4-21 a logical target.

Injured Reserve (in alphabetical order)

1. Algorithms – Missed scheduled Fountain of Youth appearance with bone split injury and is off the Triple Crown trail.

2. B Shanny (Street Cry) – Ran twice in NY last summer including good looking maiden win over El Padrino at Saratoga Aug 20. Bone chip had him on the sidelines and he returned to the worktab on March 30, breezing 3f in :38.09 (16/22) at Belmont Park (training track).

3. Consortium (Bernardini) – Ankle chip knocked him out of the Gotham and off the Derby trail. He is expected to return later this year.

4. Fed Biz (Giant’s Causeway) – Hind-end issue has knocked him off the Derby trail, according to trainer Bob Baffert.

5. Fire On Ice (Unbridled’s Song) – Suffered a non-displaced condylar fracture in his left hind leg. He is expected to return later this year.

6. Junebugred (Corinthian) – Smarty Jones Stakes hero is off the Derby trail with a bone chip in his ankle.

7. O’Prado Again (El Prado) – G2 Remsen hero suffered a condylar fracture of his right front leg on Jan 9 and is off the Triple Crown trail. He is expected to return later this year.

8. Out of Bounds (Discreet Cat) – G3 Sham hero goes to the sidelines after suffering a non-displaced condylar fracture to his left front ankle. He is off the Triple Crown trail.

9. Sky Kingdom (Empire Maker) – According to Bob Baffert via Twitter, Sky Kingdom needs 60 days off and is no longer on the Triple Crown trail.

10. Spring Hill Farm (Smart Strike) – 4th place Tampa Bay Derby finisher goes to the sidelines with a right knee fracture. He will have surgery and his racing future is unknown at this time.

11. Stephanoatsee (A.P. Indy) – Injured pastern bone has knocked the Graham Motion trainee off the Derby trail. He is expected to miss at least two months and could return this summer.

12. Timely Tally (Mr. Greeley) – From Ian Wilkes in a recent DRF article – “Timely Tally, on the other hand, will be done for a while. He has a tendon issue. It’s not career-threatening, but I’m trying to work out now how much time I’ll have to give him.”

Take Charge Indy Beats Union Rags in Florida Derby

Last year’s G1 BC Juvenile continues to shine in regards to finding Kentucky Derby 2012 prep winners. It was Take Charge Indy‘s turn in the spotlight as he controlled proceedings throughout and held off Reveron and Union Rags in Saturday’s G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.

 G1 Florida Derby (3-31-12): 95 BSF (Take Charge Indy)

Take Charge Indy

Can Calvin Borel win another Kentucky Derby aboard Take Charge Indy? - photo by Eclipse Sportswire

There was not much pace in the paper race and Calvin Borel sent Take Charge Indy straight to the front through moderate fractions of :47.71 and 1:12.09. For comparison purposes, Yara went :47.19 and 1:10.80 with eventual winner Grace Hall pressing in the G2 Gulftream Oaks earlier on the card. The hidden fraction between 4-6 furlongs (:24.38) was the key as Borel was able to slow things down, which put Union Rags and El Padrino at a huge disadvantage over a speed conducive oval.

Javier Castellano aboard El Padrino was intent on keeping Julien Leparoux and Union Rags hemmed in along the inside, and those race riding tactics, coupled with the controlled tempo up front, doomed the strong post time favorite.

Take nothing away from the winner. Take Charge Indy and Borel utilized their paper race advantage and now trainer Patrick Byrne looks like a genius for scratching out of the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. I have always liked the son of AP Indy but had my doubts about his ability to change course and return from a layoff to beat a field of this quality. The race shape may not be so kind on the first Saturday in May.

Union Rags had a useful final Derby prep, and if you liked him before this race, don’t abandon ship now. Everything seemed to go against him at the Gulf on Saturday. Sure, Leparoux could have been a bit more aggressive, but he thought he was on the best horse and could not do much behind tepid splits while pinned in. He had room to roam in the lane and finished up nicely while just missing the place, a length and a neck behind the winner. He galloped out in front and remains a serious Derby threat if he trains well leading up to the big dance.

El Padrino was the big disappointment. He tracked the pace wide and in the clear but had no answer when Castellano asked for run around the far turn. He ended up a flat 4th and may have bounced following a grueling Risen Star win. Also, he may be better on wet ground, something that we have talked about numerous times on the Fast Track radio show.

Reveron chased from 2nd all the way around the track and had just enough left to hold off Union Rags. The gem of consistency is on the bubble in regards to having enough graded earnings ($220k) to make the Derby gate.

Florida Derby Grade: B (86 out of 100)

Florida Derby 2012 Preview: Can El Padrino Beat Union Rags?

The final major Kentucky Derby 2012 prep at Gulfstream Park will be held March 31 and Union Rags is the strong 6-5 favorite in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.

Union Rags

Is Union Rags a slam dunk in the Florida Derby? - photo by Eclipse Sportswire

#6 Union Rags (6-5) has been part of my Derby Top 10 since I started the list last September, and he has occupied my top spot since last November. The uncrowned juvenile champ looked great in his facile G2 Fountain of Youth return but there was not much behind him that day. He has over $1 million in graded earnings and figures to be no worse than 2nd in his final Derby prep.

#8 El Padrino (2-1) might have the tactical edge in here since he drew outside of heavy favorite and fellow stalker Union Rags. Castellano might park him on the flank of the aforementioned fav and bide his time. The G2 Risen Star hero owns the best numbers, has been battle tested, and smartly scored here in January. Should be an interesting chess match between Castellano and Leparoux, and remember that the former gave up the mount on Union Rags earlier this year!

#1 Fort Loudon (20-1) has some tactical speed in a race that came up light on pace and might try to take advantage of the inside post. He showed some ability as a juvenile but has struggled against better graded company in his last three. Jurado rides him well and a minor award is not impossible.

#4 Neck ‘N Neck (20-1) had some early trouble (bumped, steadied) in the FOY (blinkers on). He failed to seriously threaten graded rivals in his last pair but his numbers are on the rise. He has earned triple digit Late Pace Ratings in his last three and should enjoy this longer trip. Edgar Prado rides.

I have always liked #3 Take Charge Indy (5-1) but he has been curiously handled this year. He began his campaign with a clear place finish behind El Padrino but scratched out of the G2 Tampa Bay Derby when he drew post 10. He has not been seen since Jan 29 and has only shows four published times since. He owns dangerous speed but has lost stretch ground in his last four and might fold his tent when Union Rags and El Padrino come running.

#9 Reveron (12-1) has fired Trifecta shots in all six starts including a win in the local GP Derby and a show finish in the G3 Sam Davis. The fresh colt removes the hood and is firing Calder bullets for this but is stuck in the outside post and seems a cut below.

#2 News Pending (8-1) received a smart ride in his FOY place finish. Kent D sensed the slow splits and wisely moved early, but he was no match for Union Rags. His numbers are going the right way but he is 0-for-4 on dirt. He reunites with winning rider Rajiv Maragh and figures to stalk the pace for trainer Dale Romans.

#8 Bartolome (30-1) exits a solid show finish in a course/distance Optional Claiming affair. He faltered badly against El Padrino and Take Charge Indy before that and seems up against it.

#5 Z Camelot (50-1) is a well-bred maiden facing graded company for Dale Romans. The $550k Keeneland sales grad set the pace and weakened to 5th when last seen in a 9f MSW turf route here Feb 23. He is over his head to say the least.

The Plays:

$10 Trifecta 6-8/6-8/1-4 ($40)

 

Grading the Kentucky Derby 2012 Preps: Robert Lewis, Sam Davis

The road to Kentucky Derby 2012 made stops in Florida and Southern California on Feb 4 and the G3 Sam Davis and G2 Robert Lewis Stakes both produced surprising results.

G3 Sam F. Davis (2-4-12): 81 BSF (Battle Hardened)

Kentucky Derby 2012 logo

Saturday’s Sam Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs did not look strong on paper and eventual winner Battle Hardened was a maiden coming in and got the job done in slow time.  He is out of strong route sire Giant’s Causeway and trainer Eddie Kenneally is back on the Triple Crown trail after catching Derby fever with Santiva in 2011.

Three noses were on the wire for runner-up honors with Prospective edging out Reveron and Ravelo’s Boy. Prospective won the G3 Grey at Woodbine as a juvenile and Reveron was last seen capturing the Gulfstream Park Derby.

State of Play set the pace and faded to 7th for Team Valor and Graham Motion. Look for him to return to the sod in the near future.

Sam Davis Stakes Grade: D

I'll Have Another

I'll Have Another goes next in SA Derby - photo by Eclipse Sportswire

I’ll Have Another made the most of his first start in five months at Santa Anita on Saturday, posting a surprising $88.60 upset in a strange renewal of the Lewis.

G2 Robert Lewis Stakes (2-4-12): 96 BSF (I’ll Have Another)

Sprinter Isn’t He Clever set the pace with I’ll Have Another tracking him intently. The early leader faded after six panels and the eventual winner inherited the lead and was never seriously threatened in a relatively easy 2-3/4 length tally.

Liaison was the solid favorite for Bob Baffert but was never traveling comfortably and fell in the stretch after clipping heels with Groovin’ Solo, who crossed the line in 3rd but was place last via disqualification.

Royal Delta’s brother Empire Way was up to finish a clear 2nd and Rousing Sermon was elevated to 3rd.

It was double disappointment for Baffert as Sky Kingdom failed to get involved. Chips All In failed to lift a hoof.

The number from the Lewis came back solid enough but the race was dominated by longshots and did not look strong from a visual standpoint. I’ll Have Another is expected to go next in the G1 Santa Anita Derby on April 7.

Robert Lewis Stakes Grade: C

Sam F Davis Stakes 2012 Preview: Is Reveron Vulnerable?

The first graded route for Kentucky Derby 2012 hopefuls at Tampa Bay Downs is the G3 Sam F. Davis Stakes and Gulfstream Park shipper Reveron is the tepid 3-1 choice.

#10 Reveron (3-1) owns an ascending numbers pattern and is an obvious threat if he runs back to his Gulfstream Park Derby triumph. The improving son of Songandaprayer sat a favorable trip from an advantageous inner post in his last and may not be as good as he appears on paper. Casual Trick, the GP Derby runner-up, came back to run poorly at the Gulf last weekend and Reveron must overcome an outer draw at a different venue today.

Kentucky Derby 2012 logo

#9 Burning Time (12-1) seems worth a flyer. The late runner ran out of ground in the seven furlong Pasco here Jan 14. He won the Foolish Pleasure around two turns at Calder last year and will be finishing at square odds.

#1 State of Play (7-2) is an interesting surface switcher for Graham Motion. He captured his first two starts as a juvenile including a graded route at the Spa second time out before flopping from post 13 when last seen in the BC Juvenile Turf. The Team Valor colorbearer has ability and should track the pace from the rail under Alan Garcia.

#4 Ecabroni (7-2) earned a strong number in a sharp seven panel maiden win at Gulfstream for Todd Pletcher on Jan 14. The likely target tries two turns and might get brave if able to shake loose early.

#11 Prospective (6-1) beat Burning Time and company in the Pasco and he also won the G3 Grey Stakes at Woodbine as a juvenile. The versatile sort fits on class but must overcome a wide draw.

#3 Battle Hardened (12-1) is on the upswing for Kenneally. He almost earned his diploma from post 11 at nine furlongs in a Gulfstream special weight contest Dec 31 and his trainer struck with maiden Santiva in a graded stakes event.  His task is not impossible.

#6 Neck ‘N Neck (5-1) is getting better for Wilkes. He graduated under the Twin Spires in November and finished 2nd behind highly regarded Pletcher runner Discreet Dancer at the Gulf on Jan 7.

#8 Ravelo’s Boy (15-1) finished 5th in the GP Derby. He is a capable finisher and can rally for a minor share.

#5 Moroccan Brew (30-1) was not threat in the Pasco Stakes and will probably attend the pace before throwing in the towel.

#7 Fox Rules (30-1) seems most effective on turf and the NY-bred shows up in an ambitious spot.

#2 Holy Highway (20-1) exits a local maiden turf route victory but does not have the numbers to compete here.

The Plays:

$10 to win #9 

.50 cent Trifecta 1-4-6-9-11/3/1-4-6-8-9-10-11 ($15)

. 50 cent Trifecta 1-4-6-10-11/1-3-4-6-8-10-11/9 ($15)

Grading the 2012 Kentucky Derby Preps: GP Derby

The ungraded, $100,000 Gulfstream Park Derby was the first stakes route opportunity for Kentucky Derby 2012 contenders to square off and newly turned three-year-old Reveron got the best of highly regarded Nick Zito runner Casual Trick.

Gulfstream Park Derby (1-1-12) – 87 BSF (Reveron)

Reveron

Is Reveron a legit Ky Derby contender? - photo by Eclipse Sportwire

Early-pressing types from inner posts perform well in routes at the Gulf and Reveron took advantage of his inner draw and made his presence felt throughout in a game 1/2 length victory. I am not sure that the son of Songandaprayer is a serious Derby contender but he can do some damage in two turn stakes races in Florida this winter.

Casual Trick ran a nice race for Zito. He sat a decent tactical trip and gave the winner a scare while clearly second best. He was making his third lifetime start and first try around two turns on Sunday and should continue to develop. He is yet another hot Bernardini commodity, and he gets more stamina from dam sire Red Ransom. Interesting long range prospect.

{Check out the latest Kentucky Derby 2012 contenders workout report}.

King Kid appeared to have run along the rail but could not match strides with the top two in the stretch. He was best of the rest in 3rd and has plenty of upside with only two races under his belt. The son of Lemon Drop Kid, out of a Royal Academy mare, might have turf routes in his future. Dale Romans trains.

Gulfstream Park Derby Grade: c+

Gulfstream Park Derby 2012 Preview

The $100,000 Gulfstream Park Derby is the first 3-year-old-prep for Kentucky 2012 hopefuls and there is value to be found if we can knock morning line favorite Ancient Rome out of the top spot.

#2 Reveron (4-1) owns a rising numbers pattern and appears poised to try a route after running 5.5f, 6f, and twice at seven furlongs. All of his works/races at Calder so there is no guarantee he will handle the Gulf. A ground saving tactical trip for profitable low profile connections is anticipated.

#1 King Kid (12-1) captured his Churchill bow and it is not easy to post a debut tally at seven panels. The Romans trainee is bred to route (Lemon Drop Kid-Royal Academy) and could show up on the sod at some point.

#7 Ancient Rome (3-1) fired in all three sprint starts including determined Spectacular Bid tally here Dec 3. The speedy son of Roman Ruler will not offer much value in his first route attempt.

#9 Ravelo’s Boy (12-1) finished nicely in local optional claiming route win Dec 3. He will be closing at a price and could sneak into the Trifecta.

#11 Yourhonorandglory (10-1) brings strong Parx form to the table and has the productive Carmouche-Servis team in his corner. The early-pressing type must work out a trip from post 11.

#5 Casual Trick (6-1) exits a visually impressive maiden win at Churchill but did not earn much of a number. Yet another promising sort out of Bernardini.

#3 Gold Megillah (8-1) freaked under the Twin Spires Nov 16 but that race was in the goo and it looks like a fast track today.

#6 Silver Menace (6-1) is undefeated in two starts and now goes for the Mucho Macho Man team.

#8 Politicallycorrect (8-1) earned a decent number in his course/distance maiden breaker Dec 4 but was part of below par fractions that day and will have to run harder throughout in this spot.

#4 Nachas And Joy (12-1) brings fine Illinois form to the table but has never raced on fast conventional dirt.

#10 Rex’s Last Tour (30-1) makes his 11th lifetime start for low percentage connections and tries a route for the first time. He appears overmatched.

The Plays:

$12 to win #2
.50 cent Trifecta 1-2/7/ALL ($9)
.50 cent Trifecta 1-2/ALL/9 ($9)