Posts Tagged ‘Mubtaahij’

Belmont Stakes Day 2015 Preview + Met Mile Video

Belmont Stakes Day Preview (Saturday, June 6, 2015):

G1 Ogden Phipps (race 5)

phipps 2015

Untapable is the overwhelming morning line favorite and Wedding Toast might be the only one with a shot to beat her.

G1 Acorn (race 7)

acorn 2015

This is a wide open race. Kentucky Oaks runner-up Shook Up is the tepid 7-2 morning line favorite. Other contenders include Promise Me Silver, 8-for-8 lifetime, and wire job threat Condo Commando.

G1 Met Mile (race 9)

met mile 2015

This might be the race of the day with Tonalist, Wicked Strong, and Bayern in the field.

G1 Manahttan (race 10)

manhattan 2015

Quite possibly the toughest race on the program. Twilight Eclipse and Finnegans Wake figure to vie for favoritism.

G1 Belmont Stakes (race 11)

belmont draw 2015

Will American Pharoah become the first horse to sweep the Triple Crown since 1978? History is against him but he seems to be coming up to the race as good as possible and should have every chance to succeed. The expected tepid pace should help his cause but it will not be an easy task with the likes of Grade 1 winners Frosted and Materiality in the field.

belmont odds 2015

SATURDAY’S BELMONT STAKES DAY (JUNE 6) full card analysis from Belmont Park is now available to purchase for $15 at:

The Runaway Horse

 

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Triple Crown 2015: Belmont Stakes Preview (Video)

Is American Pharoah the next Triple Crown winner? The last 9 Belmont Stakes winners did not compete in the Preakness, and the final leg of the Triple Crown series has been dominated by fresh horses since the early 2000’s.

In the video below, HorseRacingNation.com Handicapper Jarrod Horak takes a look back at the Preakness Stakes and previews the Belmont Stakes.

Preakness 2015 Recap + Belmont Stakes Triple Crown Preview

Once again, 2-Year-Old Champion and post time favorite American Pharoah lived up to the hype with a romping victory in Preakness 2015.

American Pharoah

American Pharoah wins Preakness 2015 – Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

A beautiful day turned ugly in a hurry with heavy rains pelting the Pimlico oval shortly before the running of the Preakness Stakes.

Jockey Victor Espinoza changed tactics and the race was over before it started. He was planning on rating from the inside post on a fast track, but when the rains came, he decided to send and play catch me if you can. The competition never stood a chance as the Derby winner floated over the wet footing and was never headed in his fourth triumph from as many 2015 starts.

Longshot Tale of Verve was up for the place for trainer Dallas Stewart, who also saddled Kentucky Derby runner-ups Golden Soul (2013) and Commanding Curve (2014).

Divining Rod finished 3rd for Lael Stable, the owners of 2006 Kentucky Derby hero Barbaro.

American Pharoah goes for the Triple Crown sweep at Belmont Park on Saturday, June 6, and it will almost certainly be the biggest test of his career.

Can American Pharoah win the Triple Crown? Affirmed in 1978 was the last horse to sweep the series and an unlucky thirteen horses have failed to complete the hat trick since. The last nine Belmont Stakes winners did not compete in the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes will be Pharoah’s fifth start in twelve weeks.

A talented group of fresh, graded winners will be waiting for Pharoah in New York, including G1 Wood Memorial winner Frosted, G1 Florida Derby hero Materiality, G1 Blue Grass winner Carpe Diem, G1 UAE Derby romper Mubtaahib, and G2 Peter Pan winner Madefromlucky.

Kentucky Derby 2015 Recap + Preakness Preview

Two-Year-Old Champion and post time favorite American Pharoah lived up to the hype with a game tally in Kentucky Derby 2015.

American Pharoah

Kentucky Derby 2015 winner American Pharoah – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

A moderate pace made the race and the top three Derby finishers dominated from the opening bell.

In an uneventful renewal under the Twin Spires, Dortmund showed the way early, closely followed by Firing Line and American Pharoah.

Firing Line grabbed a brief lead in the lane but Dortmund was not quite finished and American Pharaoh was widest of all and making a determined run.

In the end, American Pharoah prevailed by a hard fought length with Firing Line a clear 2nd.

American Pharoah was part of my original Derby contenders list when I started my annual blog last September and he got some sweet Derby revenge for his sire line (PioneeroftheNile, Empire Maker).

Firing Line was fresh and ran to his strong pre-Derby works. He has a nice rivalry going with previously undefeated Dortmund.

Dortmund weakened a bit in the final furlong but held the show by a neck over Frosted, the only stretch running making up any ground. The latter might have made some serious noise if he got a bit more pace help. Look for the McLaughlin-Godolphin runner in the Belmont Stakes.

Danzig Moon ended up an even 5th under Julien Leparoux.

Materiality was supposed to attend the pace but his lack of seasoning was evident following a tardy beginning. He did will to finish 6th and the Belmont Stakes is next.

Dubai shipper Mubtaahij finished a respectable 8th. He is pointing to the Belmont Stakes.

Carpe Diem slowly faded to 10th and is also targeting the Belmont Stakes.

Preakness 2015 Probables

AMERICAN PHAROAH (Pioneerof The Nile – Littleprincessemma, by Yankee Gentleman) american pharoah silks

Trainer: Bob Baffert – Owner: Zayat Stables

Last Start: 1st in the G1 Kentucky Derby.

Comments: The 2YO Champ laid it all on the line in the Derby to extend his winning streak to five. The Preakness will be his fourth start in nine weeks.

FIRING LINE (Line of David – Sister Girl Blues, by Hold for Gold) firing line silks

Trainer: Simon Callaghan – Owner: Arnold Zetcher

Last Start: 2nd in G1 Kentucky Derby on May 2.

Comments: Finally got the best of Dortmund but Baffert still beat him with American Pharaoh. He is still fresh for the rest of the Triple Crown series but Derby runner-up finishers frequently flop in the Preakness. He has looked energetic in his Churchill gallops leading up to the Preakness.

DORTMUND (Big Brown – Our Josephina, by Tale of the Cat) dortmund silks

Trainer: Bob Baffert – Owner: Kaleem Shah, Inc.

Last Start: 3rd in G1 Kentucky Derby on May 2.

Comments: His unbeaten streak came to an end in the Derby but he was hardly disgraced finishing 3rd. He might be the one to catch in the Preakness.

Danzig Moon (Malibu Moon – Leaveminthedust, by Danzig)

Trainer: Mark Casse – Owner: John C. Oxley

Last Start: 5th in G1 Kentucky Derby on May 2.

Comments: The wiseguy longshot in the Derby completed the Super High 5 under the Twin Spires. He should offer wagering value in Maryland.

DIVINING ROD (Tapit)

Trainer: Arnauld Delacour – Owner: Lael Stables

Latest Published Workout: 4f in 51.60 (31/32) at Fair Hill on May 9.

Last Start: 1st in G3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 11.

Comments: Showed nice maturity and development in the Lexington Stakes. He might be getting good at the right time and Javier Castellano will ride in Baltimore.

BODHISATTVA (Student Council – Dr. Cheryl P, by Talk Is Money)

Trainer: Jose Corrales – Owner: Jose Corrales

Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:04 (9/10) at Laurel on May 10.

Last Start: 1st in Federico Tesio at Pimlico on April 18.

Comments: The local hope meets some salty company.

TALE OF VERVE (Tale of Ekati – Verve, by Unbridled)

Trainer: Dallas Stewart – Owner: Charles E. Fipke

Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:00.40 (5/25) at Churchill Downs on May 10.

Last Start: 1st in Keeneland MSW at 9.5f on April 23.

Comments: Kentucky Derby also-eligible won’t have any problem making the gate at Pimlico. He faces the big boys in his first start vs. winners.

SATURDAY’S PREAKNESS DAY (MAY 16) full card analysis from Pimlico will be available to purchase later this week at:

The Runaway Horse

Upcoming full cards: Santa Anita weekends (May 16-17). PREAKNESS DAY (May 16) analysis from Pimlico coming soon! Every full card includes suggested Early Pick 4, Pick 5, Pick 6, and Late Pick 4 spread tickets.

Weekend full card recaps with highlights are posted on The Runaway Horse What You Missed page

KENTUCKY DERBY 2015 Contenders: The Final Countdown

Post positions have been selected and the field has been set for Kentucky Derby 2015. I have posted odds and post positions below.

The Derby blog began last September and my final “Exceptional Eleven” rankings are listed below. It has been an especially fun ride this year with five of my contenders from September making the Derby cut.

Stanford scratched, allowing #21 Frammento to make the Derby starting gate.

ky-derby-draw_615x400

El Kabeir missed his morning gallop on Friday, May 1 and seems to have a tender left foot. His Derby status will be determined Saturday morning.

I will continue to follow the current sophomore class through the Triple Crown series and beyond, and my 2016 Kentucky Derby contenders blog will debut after Del Mar & Saratoga in September.

Click on the names of each horse below (Top 5) to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2015 Contenders

  1. CARPE DIEM (Giant’s Causeway – Rebridled Dreams, by Unbridled’s Song) carpe diem silks

Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Owner: WinStar Farm & Stonestreet Stables

Latest Published Workout: 4f in :48.60 (2/63) at Keeneland on April 25.

Last Start: 1st in G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 4.

Comments: He’s been part of my list since last September and has occupied the top spot for more than four months. The feeling here is that we have not seen his best but he might have a tough go of it from post 2.

Derby Points (164)

  1. DORTMUND (Big Brown – Our Josephina, by Tale of the Cat) dortmund silks

Trainer: Bob Baffert – Owner: Kaleem Shah, Inc.

Latest Published Workout: 6f in 1:13.60 (19/33) at Santa Anita on April 25.

Last Start: 1st in G1 SA Derby on April 4.

Comments: The undefeated Derby contender elevated his game to new heights in back-to-back graded wire jobs in the San Felipe and SA Derby. The massive colt owns early-pressing versatility and cruised in his lone Churchill start. He is training forwardly and did well landing post 8.

Derby Points (170)

  1. INTERNATIONAL STAR (Fusaichi Pegasus – Parlez, by French Deputy) international star silks

Trainer: Michael Maker – Owner: Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey

Latest Published Workout: 4f in 50.80 (11/12) at Churchill Training on April 25.

Last Start: 1st in G2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on Saturday, March 28.

Comments: My original #1 ranked Ky Derby contender when I started this list Sept. ’14. The very experienced Derby contender began his career last June. He keeps getting better but needs further improvement to make a splash on the first Saturday in May. I love his professionalism and he drew favorably in post 12.    

Derby Points (171)

  1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (Pioneerof The Nile – Littleprincessemma, by Yankee Gentleman) american pharoah silks

Trainer: Bob Baffert – Owner: Zayat Stables

Latest Published Workout: 5f bullet in 58.80 (1/33) at Churchill Downs on April 26.

Last Start: 1st in the G1 Arkansas Derby.

Comments: The 2YO Champ did not break a sweat in the Rebel or Arkansas Derby and heads to Churchill Downs as the Kentucky Derby favorite. He has looked sensational in the mornings and will break from post 18.

Derby Points (160)

  1. FROSTED (Tapit – Fast Cookie, by Deputy Minister) frosted silks

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin – Owner: Godolphin Racing

Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:01.10 (2/9) at Palm Meadows on April 25.

Last Start: 1st in G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 4.

Comments: He’s the fourth member of my original list from September and I played him Derby Future Pool 1. He showed a new closing dimension in the Wood Memorial and did the bulk of his Kentucky Derby preparations in Florida. He will break from the auxiliary gate in post 15 and should have plenty of room to maneuver.

Derby Points (113)

  1. EL KABEIR (Scat Daddy – Great Venue, by Unbridled’s Song) el kabeir silks

Trainer: John Terranova II – Owner: Zayat Stables

Latest Published Workout: 4f in :46.81 (3/55) at Belmont Park on April 25.

Last Start: 3rd in G1 Wood Memorial on April 4.

Comments: The 5th and final member of my original Derby list. Nothing bothers the versatile, consistent sort and he certainly brings plenty of experience to the table. He will leave from post 7 and you know Borel will find the rail at some point. He seemingly has a foot bruise and is not certain to compete in the Derby.

Derby Points (95)

  1. FIRING LINE (Line of David – Sister Girl Blues, by Hold for Gold) firing line silks

Trainer: Simon Callaghan – Owner: Arnold Zetcher

Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:02.20 (51/59) at Santa Anita on April 25.

Last Start: 1st in G3 Sunland Derby on March 22.

Comments: After two grueling defeats to Dortmund, he cruised to a very easy win at Sunland. The Kentucky Derby will be his first start in six weeks. Jockey Gary Stevens was ecstatic after getting post 10. He is training well and if you like Dortmund, you will be getting a contender with similar ability at four times the price as the Baffert trainee.

Derby Points (58)

  1. UPSTART (Flatter – Party Silks, by Touch Gold) upstart silks

Trainer: Richard Violette – Owner: Ralph M. Evans

Latest Published Workout: 5f bullet in :59.95 (1/9) at Palm Meadows on April 25.

Last Start: 2nd in G1 Florida Derby on March 28.

Comments: Spiked a fever and missed a workout earlier in April but bounced back with two bullets on April 17 & 25. He owns competitive speed figures but must overcome post 19. I will like his chances more when the Belmont Stakes rolls around.

Derby Points (76)

  1. MATERIALITY (Afleet Alex – Wildwood Flower, by Langfuhr) materiality silks

Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Owner: Alto Racing, LLC.

Latest Published Workout: 4f in :48 (7/78) at Churchill Downs on April 24.

Last Start: 1st in G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on March 28.

Comments: The last unraced 2-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby was Apollo in 1882. He earned a 110 BSF in the G1 Florida Derby and looms a pace player on the first Saturday in May. He must overcome a lack of experience and post 3 on Derby Day.

Derby Points (100)

  1. WAR STORY (Northern Afleet – Belle Watling, by Pulpit) war story silks

Trainer: Tom Amoss – Owner: Loooch Racing Stable

Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:02 (7/20) at Churchill Downs on April 22.

Last Start: 3rd in G2 LA Derby on March 28.

Comments: Hard-knocking gelding earned his way into the Kentucky Derby with a 2nd in the G3 Lecomte, another 2nd in the G2 Risen Star, and a 3rd in the G2 LA Derby. The 50-1 longshot will leave from gate 16.

Derby Points (44)

  1. MUBTAAHIJ (Dubawi – Pennegale, by Pennekamp) Mubtaahij silks

Trainer: Michael F. de Kock – Owner: Sheikh Mohammad bin Khalifa al Maktoum

Latest Published Workout: 3f in :37.40 (10/15) at Churchill Downs on April 30.

Last Start: 1st UAE Derby.

Comments: The Irish-bred mystery horse is traveling across the globe for a shot at Derby glory. Trainer Mike de Kock is one of the best in the world. He will break from post position 6.

Derby Points (100)

The Rest of the Derby Field: Far Right, Bolo, Itsaknockout, Ocho Ocho Ocho, Danzig Moon, Tencendur, Mr. Z, Keen Ice, Frammento. Stanford (scratched). Also-eligible Tale of Verve will not make the Derby field.

SATURDAY’S KENTUCKY DERBY DAY (MAY 2) full card analysis from Churchill Downs is now available to purchase at:

The Runaway Horse

Upcoming full cards: Santa Anita weekends (May 2-3). PREAKNESS DAY (May 16) analysis from Pimlico coming soon! Every full card includes suggested Early Pick 4, Pick 5, Pick 6, and Late Pick 4 spread tickets.

Weekend full card recaps with highlights are posted on The Runaway Horse What You Missed page

KENTUCKY DERBY 2015 Contenders: Calm Before the Storm

We are now one week away from Kentucky Derby 2015 and the participants are starting to assemble under the Twin Spires.

The next few days will bring final workouts and post positions will be drawn on Wednesday.

One Lucky Dane was injured in a workout last weekend and is off the Derby trail for Bob Baffert. Todd Pletcher’s Madefromlucky will not run in the Derby after an unsatisfactory workout at Churchill Downs on April 24. Keen Ice takes over the 20th and final spot with Frammento and Bold Conquest on the outside looking in.

Click on the names of each horse below (Top 5) to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2015 Contenders

  1. CARPE DIEM (Giant’s Causeway – Rebridled Dreams, by Unbridled’s Song) carpe diem silks

Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Owner: WinStar Farm & Stonestreet Stables

Latest Published Workout: 4f in :48 (5/76) at Keeneland on April 18.

Last Start: 1st in G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 4.

Comments: He’s been part of my list since last September and has occupied the top spot for more than four months. He continues to prepare for the Derby at Keeneland and the feeling here is that we have not seen his best.

Derby Points (164)

  1. DORTMUND (Big Brown – Our Josephina, by Tale of the Cat) dortmund silks

Trainer: Bob Baffert – Owner: Kaleem Shah, Inc.

Latest Published Workout: 5f bullet in :58.80 (1/59) at Santa Anita on April 18.

Last Start: 1st in G1 SA Derby on April 4.

Comments: The undefeated Derby contender elevated his game to new heights in back-to-back graded wire jobs in the San Felipe and SA Derby. The massive colt owns early-pressing versatility and cruised in his lone Churchill start.

Derby Points (170)

  1. INTERNATIONAL STAR (Fusaichi Pegasus – Parlez, by French Deputy) international star silks

Trainer: Michael Maker – Owner: Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey

Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:01.80 (35/60) at Churchill Downs on April 18.

Last Start: 1st in G2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on Saturday, March 28.

Comments: My original #1 ranked Ky Derby contender when I started this list Sept. ’14. The very experienced Derby contender began his career last June. He keeps getting better but needs further improvement to make a splash on the first Saturday in May. I love his professionalism.    

Derby Points (171)

  1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (Pioneerof The Nile – Littleprincessemma, by Yankee Gentleman) american pharoah silks

Trainer: Bob Baffert – Owner: Zayat Stables

Last Start: 1st in the G1 Arkansas Derby.

Comments: The 2YO Champ did not break a sweat in the Rebel or Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby favorite was an early arrival at Churchill Downs.

Derby Points (160)

  1. FROSTED (Tapit – Fast Cookie, by Deputy Minister) frosted silks

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin – Owner: Godolphin Racing

Latest Published Workout: 5f bullet in 1:01.35 (1/7) at Palm Meadows on April 16.

Last Start: 1st in G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 4.

Comments: He’s the fourth member of my original list from September and I played him Derby Future Pool 1. He showed a new closing dimension in the Wood Memorial and will do the bulk of his Kentucky Derby preparations in Florida.

Derby Points (113)

  1. EL KABEIR (Scat Daddy – Great Venue, by Unbridled’s Song) el kabeir silks

Trainer: John Terranova II – Owner: Zayat Stables

Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:00.19 (3/16) at Belmont Park on April 19.

Last Start: 3rd in G1 Wood Memorial on April 4.

Comments: The 5th and final member of my original Derby list. Nothing bothers the versatile, consistent sort and he certainly brings plenty of experience to the table. He was reportedly energetic in his Belmont Park workout on April 19.

Derby Points (95)

  1. FIRING LINE (Line of David – Sister Girl Blues, by Hold for Gold) firing line silks

Trainer: Simon Callaghan – Owner: Arnold Zetcher

Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:00.40 (22/59) at Santa Anita on April 18.

Last Start: 1st in G3 Sunland Derby on March 22.

Comments: After two grueling defeats to Dortmund, he cruised to a very easy win at Sunland. The Kentucky Derby will be his first start in six weeks.

Derby Points (58)

  1. UPSTART (Flatter – Party Silks, by Touch Gold) upstart silks

Trainer: Richard Violette – Owner: Ralph M. Evans

Latest Published Workout: 4f bullet in :47.40 (1/6) at Palm Meadows on April 17.

Last Start: 2nd in G1 Florida Derby on March 28.

Comments: Spiked a fever and missed his workout last week but looked good returning to the worktab April 17.

Derby Points (76)

  1. MATERIALITY (Afleet Alex – Wildwood Flower, by Langfuhr) materiality silks

Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Owner: Alto Racing, LLC.

Latest Published Workout: 4f in :48 (7/78) at Churchill Downs on April 24.

Last Start: 1st in G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on March 28.

Comments: The last unraced 2-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby was Apollo in 1882. He earned a 110 BSF in the G1 Florida Derby and looms a pace player on the first Saturday in May.

Derby Points (100)

  1. WAR STORY (Northern Afleet – Belle Watling, by Pulpit) war story silks

Trainer: Tom Amoss – Owner: Loooch Racing Stable

Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:02 (7/20) at Churchill Downs on April 22.

Last Start: 3rd in G2 LA Derby on March 28.

Comments: Hard-knocking gelding earned his way into the Kentucky Derby with a 2nd in the G3 Lecomte, another 2nd in the G2 Risen Star, and a 3rd in the G2 LA Derby.

Derby Points (44)

  1. MUBTAAHIJ (Dubawi – Pennegale, by Pennekamp) Mubtaahij silks

Trainer: Michael F. de Kock – Owner: Sheikh Mohammad bin Khalifa al Maktoum

Latest Published Workout: 3f in :36.20 (1/2) at Arlington Park on April 21.

Last Start: 1st UAE Derby.

Comments: The Irish-bred mystery horse is traveling across the globe for a shot at Derby glory. Trainer Mike de Kock is one of the best in the world.

Derby Points (100)

Honorable Mention: (12) Far Right, (13) Bolo, (14) Itsaknockout, (15) Ocho Ocho Ocho, (16) Stanford, (17) Danzig Moon, (18) Tencendur, (19) Mr. Z, (20) Keen Ice, (21) Frammento, (22) Bold Conquest, (23) Firespike