Posts Tagged ‘Forevamo’

West Virginia Derby 2016 video analysis: Cupid vs. Suddenbreakingnews

Cupid and Suddenbreakingnews are the two likely betting favorites in West Virginia Derby 2016 following the late defections of Mo Tom and Economic Model.

Cupid only has one way to go from the rail and that is straight to the lead. If he gets pace pressure, look for Suddenbreakingnews to come charging in the lane.

 

Kentucky Derby 2016 Contenders: Fountain of Youth analysis with MOHAYMEN (Video)

My top ranked Kentucky Derby 2016 contender Mohaymen tries to run his record to 5-for-5 in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Feb 27.

fountain of youth entries

The Fountain of Youth is worth a total of 85 Derby points (50-20-10-5).

Mohaymen is the deserving morning line favorite and seemingly has every advantage on Saturday. The outside post should allow jockey Junior Alvarado to watch the pace unfold and pick a spot to stalk/pounce while steering clear of trouble.

Graded Recaps (2016 Derby Points Races)

G2 Risen Star (2-20-16, 90 BSF): Gun Runner was ready to roll off a layoff for Asmussen. He sat a nice tactical trip and held on by a 1/2 length. He has a decent pedigree (Candy Ride – Quiet Giant, by Giant’s Causeway) and is an interesting prospect if able to run faster next time. 40-1 longshot Forevamo rallied for the place and was gaining on the winner late. Show finisher Mo Tom was making a nice move before steadying sharply and that probably cost him a better placing. However, the late runner need will always need racing luck and pace help. Candy Boy set the pace and faded to 4th while well clear of the rest. Post time favorite Airoforce is likely off the Derby trail following a poor effort, his first try on fast dirt. Overall, I was not thrilled with this Derby prep.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2016 Contenders

(1) MOHAYMEN (Tapit – Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union) mohaymen silks 2016

Trainer (Kiaran Mclaughlin) – Owner (Shadwell Stable)

Latest Workout: 4f in :49.60 (23/42) at Palm Meadows on Feb 19.

Comments: The $2.2 million yearling purchase went 3-for-3 as a juvenile and rattled off back-to-back graded wins in the G2 Nashua and G2 Remsen, both at Aqueduct. He made his sophomore debut in the Holy Bull and did not disappoint with an easy stalk/pounce victory at the Gulf on Jan 30. He drew the outside post in a 6-horse field for the G2 Fountain of Youth on Saturday, Feb 27 and looms a short-priced favorite. He maintains his number one ranking, a spot he has occupied since I started my list on September 30, 2015.

Derby Points (20)  

(2) MOR SPIRIT (Eskendereya – Im a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union) more spirit silks 2016

Trainer (Bob Baffert) – Owner (Michael Lund Petersen)

Latest Workout: 4f in :48.60 (21/49) at Santa Anita Park on Feb 17.

Comments: Last year’s G1 Los Al Futurity picked up where he left off with another graded win in the G3 Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb 6. Baffert’s improving stalker was supposed to work six furlongs on Feb 23 under Gary Stevens but the move was scrapped because Mor Spirit was wearing earplugs (mistakenly left in) and was unresponsive. They are supposed to work him again on Sunday, Feb 28 and the G2 San Felipe (March 12) remains a possibility. He stays put at #2, a spot he has occupied since 10-24-15.

Derby Points (24)

(3) BRODY’S CAUSE (Giant’s Causeway – Sweet Breanna, by Sahm) brody's cause silks 2016

Trainer (Dale Romans) – Owner (Albaugh Family Stable)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.16 (6/21) at Gulfstream Park on Feb 21.

Comments: The stretch runner looked good from off the pace in back-to-back wins at Churchill (one mile maiden race) and Keeneland (G1 Breeders’ Futurity). He worked his way through traffic to finish a decent 3rd in the BC Juvenile. He is wintering in Florida and figures to have two Derby preps, beginning with the G2 Tampa Bay Derby March 12 and ending with the G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 9. My longtime #3 stays put.

Derby Points (14)

(4) GREENPOINTCRUSADER (Bernardini – Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance) greenpointcrusader silks 2016

Trainer (Dominick Schettino) – Owner (St. Elias Stable)

Latest Workout: 4f in :49.30 (17/65) at Palm Meadows on Feb 20.

Comments: The G1 Champagne winner was too far back early as the favorite in the BC Juvenile and ended up a better than appears 7th after getting fanned very wide in the lane at Keeneland Oct 31. He exited the BC Juvenile with an eye ulcer, probably caused by flying dirt during the running of the race. He resurfaced in the Holy Bull and the patient sort surprisingly took up the running and was clearly second best. He retains his #4 ranking and his next start is undecided.

Derby Points (14)

(5) EXAGGERATOR (Curlin – Dawn Raid, by Vindication) exaggerator silks

Trainer (Keith Desormeaux) – Owner (Big Chief Racing, LLC)

Comments: He came back ready to roll in the San Vicente but so did Nyquist and he settled for a clear place finish after giving the champ a scare in mid-stretch. It was a solid beginning to his 3-year-old campaign and should set him up well for the San Felipe. I have moved him one spot ahead of Nyquist because I like the way Keith D is mapping out his sophomore campaign (nice distance progression) as opposed to one sprint and one route before the Derby.

Derby Points (16)

(6) NYQUIST (Uncle Mo – Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry)

Trainer (Doug O’Neill) – Owner (Reddam Racing LLC.)

Comments: The 2-year-old champion looked like a champ in his sophomore debut in the G2 San Vicente at seven furlongs. He ran fast throughout at Santa Anita on Feb 15, stopping the timer in 1:20.71 (100 BSF) and winning by 1.5 lengths over Exaggerator. He is expected to have his final Derby prep in the G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on April 2.

Derby Points (30)

(7) MATT KING COAL (Cool Coal Man – Donna Marie, by Came Home)

Trainer (Linda Rice) – Owner (Lady Sheila Stable)

Latest Workout: 6f in 1:14.75 (1/1) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on Feb 23.

Comments: Earned two of the better juvenile speed figures in a clear place finish at 8.5 furlongs at Belmont Oct 3 (93 BSF) and a 96 BSF for his easy flat mile wire job maiden win at that same venue Oct 29. Following a respiratory infection, he spiked a fever, missed the G3 Jerome on Jan 3, and went to the farm for a vacation. He returned to the work tab Feb 7 and is pointing to the G3 Gotham at Aqueduct March 5.

(8) CONQUEST BIG E (Tapit – Seeinsbelieven, by Carson City)

Trainer (Mark Casse) – Owner (Conquest Stables, LLC.)

Latest Workouts: 4f in :49 (16/56) at Palm Meadows on Feb 26. 5f bullet in 1:00.90 (1/12) at Palm Meadows on Feb 19.

Comments: The Holy Bull disappointment is behind him and it is put up or shut up time. He needs to step up and prove that he belongs in the graded ranks and must run big in his next start. The Casse barn is suddenly struggling on the Derby trail after Airoforce’s flop in the Risen Star.

Derby Points (1)

(9) SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS (Mineshaft – Uchitel, by Afleet Alex)

Trainer (Donnie K Von Hemel) – Owner (Samuel F. Henderson)

Comments: He replaced stablemate Synchrony on the list after rallying powerfully and going last-to-first in the G3 Southwest. He has fired Exacta shots in all six career starts and has a smart route-oriented pedigree. The G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 19 is next.

Derby Points (10)

(10) ZULU (Bernardini – Temporada, by Summer Squall)

Trainer (Todd Pletcher) – Owner (Stonestreet Stables)

Latest Workout: 4f in :48.21 (4/19) at Palm Meadows on Feb 21.

Comments: Easily captured both sprint starts at Gulfstream and he gets the acid test in the Fountain of Youth. His sire and dam sire both captured the Preakness Stakes and he should improve as distances increase. He is new to the list.

(11) MALIBU SUNSET (Bernardini – One Stormy Mama, by Storm Cat)

Trainer (Bob Baffert) – Owner (Gary and Mary West)

Latest Workout: 4f in :48.40 (10/36) at Santa Anita Feb 24.

Comments: He was unveiled as the 9-5 favorite in a six furlong special weight event at Fair Grounds on Jan 31 and it was a visually impressive win to say the least. After a bumpy beginning, he seized command and pulled away with every stride, crossing the line 10+ clear of the place finisher. He was hand ridden and earned a 92 Beyer Speed Figure. After his debut, he was transferred from Wayne Catalano to Bob Baffert and he has worked three times at Santa Anita Park. He is entered in the third race at Santa Anita on Sunday, Feb 28, a one mile Optional Claiming event. He is new to the list.

Honorable Mention: (12) Mo Tom, (13) Gun Runner, (14) Danzing Candy, (15) Destin, (16) Rafting, (17) I Will Score, (18) Shagaf, (19) Rally Cry, (20) Awesome Banner

Kentucky Derby 2016 Contenders: Delta Jackpot Analysis (Video)

The next Kentucky Derby 2016 points race is the Grade 3 Delta Jackpot on Saturday, November 21, and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile 4th place finisher Exaggerator is the 2-1 morning line favorite.

delta jackpot field

Exaggerator is the only graded stakes winner in the Jackpot lineup and his class and positional speed should serve him well.

G1 Champagne runner-up Sunny Ridge is a fresh threat for the productive Ortiz/Servis team. He projects an inner tactical journey.

Found Money invades from Southern California for Doug O’Neill, who saddled Goldencents to win the 2012 Delta Jackpot.

Forevamo won the local Jackpot prep in the slop and will try to get involved late from the rail under Colby Hernandez.

The Jackpot field is completed by Memories of Winter, Whitmore, Harlan Punch, Texas Jambalaya, Cowboy Classic, and Iron Dome.

Last Saturday at Del Mar, Toews On Ice won his third sprint stakes in the G3 Bob Hope (84 BSF), defeating promising second timer Mac Daddy Mac. The latter was clearly second best and is an interesting long range Derby prospect.

Former exceptional eleven member I Will Score is back on the worktab for Jerry Hollendorfer. After a 30 day gap in his morning activity, he went 4f in :50.60 (31/33) at Santa Anita on Nov 7 and 4f in :48 (7/47) at that same venue on Nov 14.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2016 Contenders

(1) MOHAYMEN (Tapit – Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union) mohaymen silks

Trainer (Kiaran Mclaughlin) – Owner (Shadwell Stable)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.12 (2/4) at Belmont Park on Nov 18.

Comments: The $2.2 million yearling purchase was a determined 1/2 length winner (87 BSF) over Seymourdini at six furlongs in his Belmont Park debut on 9-19-15. In the G2 Nashua on Nov 4 at Aqueduct, he stalked wide, took a clear lead in the stretch, and won nicely by 1.75 lengths (89 BSF) under a hand drive. McLaughlin is looking at the G2 Remsen for his next start. He retains the top spot.

(2) MOR SPIRIT (Eskendereya – Im a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union) mor spirit silks

Trainer (Bob Baffert) – Owner (Michael Lund Petersen)

Latest Workout: 6f in 1:13.16 (2/14) at Santa Anita Park on Nov 16.

Comments: $650k purchase had a slow start, made a nice inside middle move, took the lead, and ended up a clear 2nd (83 BSF) in his 6f Santa Anita debut Sept 27. He returned at a flat mile Oct 23 and cantered to an easy win (92 BSF) as the 1-2 favorite (geared down under Gary Stevens). The G1 Los Al Futurity on Dec 19 would be a logical next step. He stays put at #2.

(3) BRODY’S CAUSE (Giant’s Causeway – Sweet Breanna, by Sahm) brody's cause silks

Trainer (Dale Romans) – Owner (Albaugh Family Stable)

Comments: Looked great from off the pace in back-to-back wins at Churchill (one mile maiden win) and Keeneland (G1 Breeders’ Futurity). He worked his way through traffic to finish a decent 3rd in the BC Juvenile and continues to look like a solid stretch factor on the Derby trail. He moved up one notch to #3 last time and stays right there.

Derby Points (14)

(4) GREENPOINTCRUSADER (Bernardini – Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance) greenpointcrusader silks

Trainer (Dominick Schettino) – Owner (St. Elias Stable)

Comments: Put it all together from off the pace in a strong 4-1/2 length victory in the Champagne. The BC Juvenile favorite was too far back early and ended up a better than appears 7th after getting fanned very wide in the lane at Keeneland Oct 31. He exited the BC Juvenile with an eye ulcer, probably caused by flying dirt during the running of the race. His connections are deciding whether to winter in New York or Florida and he will not run again this year.  He retains his #4 ranking and I still like him as a long term prospect. I really like his pedigree and he figures to get better with age.

Derby Points (10)

(5) CONQUEST BIG E (Tapit – Seeinsbelieven, by Carson City) conquest big e silks

Trainer (Mark Casse) – Owner (Conquest Stables, LLC.)

Latest Workout: 4f bullet in :47.20 (1/68) at Churchill Downs on Nov 14.

Comments: Visually impressive maiden win at Keeneland Oct 2. In the BC Juvenile, he chased the pace from the inside pace and faded to finish 8th. I thought the Juvenile might be a bit too much too soon, but he is still learning and remains a promising sort. His stablemate Airoforce is expected to contest the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes so he might end up in a one mile allowance race at Churchill Downs on Nov 28.

(6) SAIL AHOY (Bernardini – Matlacha Pass, by Seeking the Gold) sail ahoy silks

Trainer (Shug McGaughey) – Owner (Phipps Stable)

Latest Workout: 4f in :50.65 (46/51) at Belmont Park on Nov 15.

Comments: He did not run a complete race from start to finish and ended up an even 4th in the Champagne. He was last for much of the race and rallied for the show (missed 2nd by a neck) in the G2 Nashua. As stated before, he figures to improve around two turns and should get better next year for patient trainer Shug McGaughey, who saddled Kentucky Derby winner Orb in 2013. He holds his #6 position.

Derby Points (1)

(7) SEYMOURDINI (Bernardini – Graeme Six, by Graeme Hall) seymourdini silks

Trainer (Linda Rice) – Owner (Iris Smith Stable)

Comments: $900k purchase battled with Mohaymen throughout and ended up 2nd in his debut.He was clearly second best as the favorite (beaten 1/2 length) in a 6f special weight sprint at Belmont Park Oct 28 on a muddy (sealed) racetrack. He moves up one notch to #7.

(8) MATT KING COAL (Cool Coal Man – Donna Marie, by Came Home) matt king coal silks

Trainer (Linda Rice) – Owner (Lady Sheila Stable)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:03.06 (19/40) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on Nov 14.

Comments: Owns two of the better juvenile speed figures this year in a clear place finish at 8.5 furlongs at Belmont Oct 3 (93 BSF) and a 96 BSF for his easy flat mile wire job maiden win at that same venue Oct 29. He made his debut at #9 on the list Nov 6 at is up one spot.

(9) GIFT BOX (Twirling Candy – Special Me, by Unbridled’s Song) gift box silks

Trainer (Chad Brown) – Owner (W. S. Farish)

Latest Workout: 5f breeze in 1:01.85 (13/35) at Belmont Park on Nov 14.

Comments: Beat Matt King Coal by a nose at 8.5f (Belmont Park, Oct 3) and was flattered when that one returned to win impressively four weeks later. Also, the show finisher was another 18 lengths back Oct 3 so the top two were much the best. He was new to the list on Nov 6 and moves up one spot to #9.

(10) NYQUIST (Uncle Mo – Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry) nyquist silks

Trainer (Doug O’Neill) – Owner (Reddam Racing LLC.)

Comments: Ran his record to 5-for-5 and wrapped up the 2-year-old title in the BC Juvenile. To his credit, he was farther back than usual and raced wide from post 13. He gamely held off Swipe for the fourth consecutive race but the final clocking was more than a second slower than filly counterpart Songbird once again. He still seems like a miler type but keeps on winning. At this stage he is in great shape in regards to Derby points and is expected to have two 2016 preps prior to the first Saturday in May. The deserving juvenile champ moves up on position to #10.

Derby Points (30)

(11) STREET VISION (Street Sense – Emmy’s Storm, by Stormy Atlantic) street vision silks

Trainer (Mark Glatt) – Owner (Norman Stables, LLC.)

Comments: Could not match strides with Toews On Ice in the Speakeasy (six furlongs) at Santa Anita Oct 18 but was clearly second best. He failed to threaten when 5th of 7 in the G3 Bob Hope (7f @ DMR on Nov 14), a race in which the top three dominated throughout (Toews On Ice, Mac Daddy Mac, I’malreadythere). I believe he will improve around two turns and hope he gets a chance to route in the near future. He was #7 last time and drops four notches to #11.

Honorable Mention: (12) Swipe, (13) Exaggerator, (14) I Will Score, (15) Riker, (16) Rafting, (17) Annual Report, (18) Flexibility, (19) Toews On Ice, (20) Mac Daddy Mac