Posts Tagged ‘Fame and Power’

KENTUCKY DERBY 2015 Contenders: Arkansas Derby video + Lexington Stakes analysis

Arkansas Derby favorite and Eclipse Champion American Pharoah completes his Kentucky Derby 2015 prep campaign at Oaklawn Park on Saturday.

American Pharoah was the controlling speed in the G1 Del Mar Futurity, G1 FrontRunner, and G2 Rebel Stakes, and it might be déjà vu all over again in the Arkansas Derby.

The G3 Coolmore Lexington Stakes has minor qualifying points attached but none of the entrants are seriously considering the Kentucky Derby. There are a few promising runners worth following, including my top choice #3 COMFORT (5-1). His first two turf routes were not great but he looked like a new horse in a facile two turn maiden win on the Fair Grounds main track. He was purchased privately by Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and is now trained by Todd Pletcher. He fired a Florida bullet last month and looks ready to roll off the shelf under Javier Castellano.

#7 Donworth (5-1) overcame trouble to beat twelve rivals in his extended sprint bow at Gulfstream Park. Motion chose this over an easier allowance spot and he’s bred to be a quality two turn performer (Tiznow-Street Cry). He has raw talent but lacks seasoning.

#5 Fame and Power (5-2) put it all together vs. four foes in his fifth lifetime start at Santa Anita March 8. The Juddmonte-Baffert runner should make his presence felt from the outset.

#1 Divining Rod (3-1) was 2nd in the G3 Sam F Davis and 3rd in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. He’s an inside pace factor.

#4 Tiznow R J (5-1) lost his way after finishing a solid 3rd in the G3 Lecomte.

#3 Quimet (8-1) dons the hood after getting dusted in the G1 Florida Derby.

#5 Henry Jones (6-1) stretches out and looms a pace player for D. Wayne Lukas.

THE PLAYS:

$20 to win #3

$10 Exacta Box 3-7 ($20)

Analysis by Jarrod Horak

Graded Recaps

G1 Wood Memorial (103 BSF): Frosted rebounded in a big way while racing wide and rallying to a convincing win under new pilot Joel Rosario. Tencendur was a surprising 2nd and El Kabeir chugged along for the show. Beaten favorite Daredevil has been sent to WinStar Farm for a freshening and is expected to target the G1 King’s Bishop at Saratoga this summer.

G1 Blue Grass (95 BSF): Carpe Diem was a complete standout in the paper race and did not disappoint on the racetrack in virtual replay of his Tampa Bay Derby triumph.Danzig Moon finished 2nd and Ocho Ocho Ocho bounced back with a respectable show finish.

G1 SA Derby (103 BSF): Dortmund basically repeated his San Felipe wire job over many of the same rivals and late blooming stablemate One Lucky Dane to keep his perfect record intact. Bolo collected the show and 4th place finisher Prospect Park had an elevate white blood cell count this week and is no longer under consideration for the Kentucky Derby.

Click on the names of each horse below (Top 5) to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2015 Contenders

  1. CARPE DIEM (Giant’s Causeway – Rebridled Dreams, by Unbridled’s Song) carpe diem silks

Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Owner: WinStar Farm & Stonestreet Stables

Last Start: 1st in G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 4.

Comments: He has done little wrong in his career and the best is yet to come. He’s been part of my list since last September and is one of only two that occupied my Number 1 spot, the other being International Star.

Derby Points (164)

  1. DORTMUND (Big Brown – Our Josephina, by Tale of the Cat) dortmund silks

Trainer: Bob Baffert – Owner: Kaleem Shah, Inc.

Last Start: 1st in G1 SA Derby on April 4.

Comments: The hits just keep on coming for Baffert’s undefeated colt. In his last two wire jobs he did not face Firing Line, the only horse to challenge him, and that one romped in the Sunland Derby a few weeks ago. The massive colt owns early-pressing versatility and cruised in his lone Churchill start.

Derby Points (170)

  1. INTERNATIONAL STAR (Fusaichi Pegasus – Parlez, by French Deputy) international star silks

Trainer: Michael Maker – Owner: Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey

Last Start: 1st in G2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on Saturday, March 28.

Comments: My original #1 ranked Ky Derby contender when I started this list Sept. ’14. He keeps getting better but needs further improvement to make a splash on the first Saturday in May. I love his professionalism.

Derby Points (171)

  1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (Pioneerof The Nile – Littleprincessemma, by Yankee Gentleman) american pharoah silks

Trainer: Bob Baffert – Owner: Zayat Stables

Latest Published Workout: 6f bullet in 1:11.60 (1/25) at Santa Anita on April 5.

Last Start: 1st in the G2 Rebel Stakes.

Comments: He has also been part of my list since the beginning. Controlled the pace in all three of his graded wins and is back at Oaklawn for his final Derby prep in Saturday’s G1 Arkansas Derby.

Derby Points (60)

  1. FROSTED (Tapit – Fast Cookie, by Deputy Minister) frosted silks

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin – Owner: Godolphin Racing

Last Start: 1st in G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 4.

Comments: He’s the fourth member of my original list from list September and I played him Derby Future Pool 1. The Wood was a huge step forward and he is peaking at the right time.

Derby Points (113)

  1. EL KABEIR (Scat Daddy – Great Venue, by Unbridled’s Song) el kabeir silks

Trainer: John Terranova II – Owner: Zayat Stables

Last Start: 3rd in G1 Wood Memorial on April 4.

Comments: The 5th and final member of my original Derby list. The versatile, consistent sort has been in steady training throughout his career and never seems to miss a beat.

Derby Points (95)

  1. FIRING LINE (Line of David – Sister Girl Blues, by Hold for Gold) firing line silks

Trainer: Simon Callaghan – Owner: Arnold Zetcher

Latest Published Workout: 4f in :48 (12/40) at Santa Anita on April 3.

Last Start: 1st in G3 Sunland Derby on March 22.

Comments: After two grueling defeats to Dortmund, he cruised to an effortless tally in New Mexico and had his first Kentucky Derby workout earlier this month.

Derby Points (58)

  1. UPSTART (Flatter – Party Silks, by Touch Gold) upstart silks

Trainer: Richard Violette – Owner: Ralph M. Evans

Last Start: 2nd in G1 Florida Derby on March 28.

Comments: Gem of consistency might appreciate getting away from the demanding Gulfstream Park surface.

Derby Points (76)

  1. ONE LUCKY DANE (Lookin At Lucky – Echo Haarbor, by Boston Harbor) one lucky dane silks

Trainer: Bob Baffert – Owner: Michael Lund Petersen

Last Start: 2nd in G1 SA Derby on April 4.

Comments: Last year’s 6th place BC Juvenile finisher jumped into the Derby fray in a hurry this season with a smart Optional Claiming win March 19 and a runner-up to stablemate Dortmund in the SA Derby on April 4.

Derby Points (40)

  1. MATERIALITY (Afleet Alex – Wildwood Flower, by Langfuhr) materiality silks

Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Owner: Alto Racing, LLC.

Last Start: 1st in G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on March 28.

Comments: The last unraced 2-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby was Apollo in 1882.

Derby Points (100)

  1. WAR STORY (Northern Afleet – Belle Watling, by Pulpit) war story silks

Trainer: Tom Amoss – Owner: Loooch Racing Stable

Last Start: 3rd in G2 LA Derby on March 28.

Comments: Hard-trying gelding qualified for the big dance with a 2nd in the G3 Lecomte, another 2nd in the G2 Risen Star, and a 3rd in the G2 LA Derby.

Derby Points (44)

Honorable Mention: (12) Far Right, (13) The Truth Or Else, (14) Bolo, (15) Itsaknockout, (16) Ocho Ocho Ocho, (17) Stanford, (18) Madefromlucky, (19) Mubtaahij, (20) Danzig Moon, (21) Tencendur, (22) Keen Ice, (23) Frammento, (24) Bold Conquest, (25) Ami’s Flatter

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