Posts Tagged ‘Arm Force’

Illinois Derby 2012 Preview – Can Currency Swap go the distance?

The winner of the Grade 3, $500,000 Illinois Derby will grab enough graded cash to make the starting gate in Kentucky Derby 2012 and morning line favorite Currency Swap tries two turns for the first time.

Currency Swap

Will Currency Swap handle two turns? - photo by Eclipse Sportswire

#4 Currency Swap (4-1), the 2011 G1 Hopeful winner, recently returned from an injury and finished a distant 2nd behind G1 Wood Memorial favorite Gemologist. He has some distance influences on the dam side (Pine Bluff) and looms a pace factor at the very least. He could regress 2nd off the shelf and might not want to go this far at less than ideal odds.

#11 Our Entourage (9-2) is 0-for-2 on dirt and gets one shot at Derby glory for Repole/Pletcher. He appears better on turf but this race is wide open and anything can happen. Won’t offer enough value for wagering purposes but he is not without a shot.

#8 Z Rockstar (10-1) is my value oriented top choice for Donnie Von Hemel. The improving son of Rockport Harbor earned the best last race number in a sharp optional claiming tally at Oaklawn Park and projects a stalk and pounce trip under Quincy Hamilton. He is back in three weeks and can compete here if able to duplicate his last.

#12 Morgan’s Guerilla (10-1) is 2-for-2 and looms an early presence under Rosie Napravnik. Other early runners include Private Terms runner-up #2 Hakama (6-1).

Horses with tactical ability include #1 Romancing The Gold (15-1), #3 Ring It Up (15-1), #5 Pretension (5-1), #6 Skyring (20-1), #9 Fastestwhogetspaid (30-1), #10 Frankie Is Rock (30-1), and #14 Slamit (30-1). NY-bred Pretension might be the best of the pressers.

The late runners are #7 Saturday Launch (15-1) and #13 Done Talking (20-1).

#15 Explain (20-1), #16 Arm Force (15-1), and #17 Defiant Flyer (30-1) are also-eligibles and need help drawing into the body of the race.

The Plays:

$20 to win/Place #8 Z Rockstar

Louisiana Derby 2012 Preview: Is Mark Valeski the real deal?

The Fair Grounds sophomores complete their Kentucky Derby 2012 road in Sunday’s Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and Mark Valeski tries to prove that he is a worthy morning line favorite.

Pace

Early-Pressers:

Cigar Street
Mark Valeski
Arm Force
Comisky’s Humor
Hero of Order

Stalkers:

Fire Alarm
Windsurfer
Mr. Bowling
Z Dager
Afford

Late Runners:

Finnegans Wake
Flashy Sunrise
Shared Property
Rousing Sermon

Analysis:

#7 SHARED PROPERTY (10-1) experienced wide trips in the G3 Lecomte (3rd from post 13) and G2 Risen Star (4th from post 10). He captured a Graded event as a juvenile, gets a much better draw (post 6), fired a local bullet March 19, and dons the hood for sharp trainer Tom Amoss. #3 Windsurfer (12-1) is on the upswing for Pletcher/Winstar Farm. The talented colt won despite a wide trip at the Gulf Feb 18 and was flattered when the runner-up returned to score. The $190k purchase fired a Palm Meadows bullet for this March 18 and projects an inner tactical trip under Johnny V. #1a Mark Valeski (2-1) did everything but win the G2 Risen Star. He stalked, pounced, and was nipped on the line by favorite El Padrino in his first route try for Larry Jones. The improving son of Proud Citizen should make his presence felt throughout under Napravnik.

Wagering Strategies:

$15 to win #7
$5 to win #3
$5 Exacta 7/1-3 ($10)
$5 Exacta 1-3/7 ($10)