Posts Tagged ‘Afford’

Hero of Order Stuns Mark Valeski in Louisiana Derby

The winding road to Kentucky Derby 2012 took an unexpected turn in Louisiana on Sunday when 109-1 outsider Hero of Order shocked the world in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby.

G2 Louisiana Derby (4-1-12): 90 BSF (Hero of Order)

Hero of Order wins 2012 Louisiana Derby

Hero of Order shocks the world in Sunday's LA Derby - photo by Eclipse Sportswire

As expected, longshot Comisky’s Humor shot to the early lead in the Fair Grounds showcase on Sunday with Hero of Order, Windsurfer, Cigar Street, and Mark Valeski chasing.

The 26-1 early leader was done after six furlongs and bomber Hero of Order took over. Windsurfer was one paced along the inside and Mark Valeski started to advance turning for home.

Hero of Order opened up a 1.5 length advantage and appeared to be saying come and get me…but nobody could. In the end, the Gennadi Dorochenko trainee held on by a 1/2 length under Eddie Martin Jr. with Mark Valeski settling for runner-up honors once again. The latter threw a shoe and bruised his foot during the race.

Rousing Sermon was the only late runner to make an impact, checking in a solid 3rd under Mike Smith. Cigar Street was 4th, followed by Shared Property, Windsurfer, Afford, Z Dager, Fire Alarm, Finnegans Wake, Flashy Sunrise, Mr. Bowling, and Comisky’s Humor.

Hero of Order is not a Kentucky Derby nominee so he won’t be running under the Twin Spires on the first Saturday in May.

The Fair Grounds Derby prep series proved disappointing with slow renewals of the G3 Lecomte and G2 Louisiana Derby. El Padrino and Mark Valeski put on a show in the G2 Risen Star but both failed to live up to expectations this weekend. I don’t think anybody coming out of this heat is a serious Derby threat.

Louisiana Derby Grade: D (66 out of 100)

 

 

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Louisiana Derby 2012 Preview: Is Mark Valeski the real deal?

The Fair Grounds sophomores complete their Kentucky Derby 2012 road in Sunday’s Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and Mark Valeski tries to prove that he is a worthy morning line favorite.

Pace

Early-Pressers:

Cigar Street
Mark Valeski
Arm Force
Comisky’s Humor
Hero of Order

Stalkers:

Fire Alarm
Windsurfer
Mr. Bowling
Z Dager
Afford

Late Runners:

Finnegans Wake
Flashy Sunrise
Shared Property
Rousing Sermon

Analysis:

#7 SHARED PROPERTY (10-1) experienced wide trips in the G3 Lecomte (3rd from post 13) and G2 Risen Star (4th from post 10). He captured a Graded event as a juvenile, gets a much better draw (post 6), fired a local bullet March 19, and dons the hood for sharp trainer Tom Amoss. #3 Windsurfer (12-1) is on the upswing for Pletcher/Winstar Farm. The talented colt won despite a wide trip at the Gulf Feb 18 and was flattered when the runner-up returned to score. The $190k purchase fired a Palm Meadows bullet for this March 18 and projects an inner tactical trip under Johnny V. #1a Mark Valeski (2-1) did everything but win the G2 Risen Star. He stalked, pounced, and was nipped on the line by favorite El Padrino in his first route try for Larry Jones. The improving son of Proud Citizen should make his presence felt throughout under Napravnik.

Wagering Strategies:

$15 to win #7
$5 to win #3
$5 Exacta 7/1-3 ($10)
$5 Exacta 1-3/7 ($10) 

Risen Star Stakes 2012 Preview: El Padrino deserving favorite

The road to Kentucky Derby 2012 heats up in New Orleans on Saturday with the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes and El Padrino looms large for trainer Todd Pletcher.

Kentucky Derby logo

#7 EL PADRINO (2-1) is the deserving favorite following a visually impressive and fast Optional Claiming route tally at Gulfstream Jan 29. He owns fine positional speed and should win this with anything resembling his last. Is he better on wet ground?

#3 Afford (8-1) might be worth a gamble in here. He exits a decent Fair Grounds route tally in the Optional Claiming ranks and figured to relish two turns with Street Sense on top and Unbridled on the bottom of his pedigree. He won despite a wide trip last time and could end up saving ground from the cozy rail today.

The G3 Lecomte came back with a low number so I will toss all six entrants (#1 Mr. Bowling, #2 Adena’s Chance, #2b Hero of Order, #5 Z Dager, #6 Ted’s Folly, #8 Shared Property)  that ran in that below par local prep.

I am a bit intrigued by #1a Mark Valeski (4-1) but he will offer no value due to coupling with Lecomte hero #1 Mr. Bowling. Mark Valeski is on the upswing and tries a route of ground for the first time. Leading rider Rosie Napravnik ends up riding this one for trainer Larry Jones.

#4 Optimizer (6-1) appears best on turf/synthetic for trainer Wayne Lukas. 

#9 Tizanexpense (10-1) exits back-to-back local route (off the turf) tallies against softer company. He drew the outside post and owns ordinary numbers.

THE PLAYS:

$10 to win #3

$18 Exacta 7-3

$5 exacta 3-7

$1 Trifecta 7/ALL/3 ($7)