Kentucky Derby 2016 Contenders: Derby Future Pool 1 Preview (Video)

The first Kentucky Derby 2016 Future Wager pool is open now through Sunday, November 29 and includes a sire wager for the first time.

Kentucky-Derby-logo-2016_615x400

Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager field (with betting number and morning line odds):
Awesome Again (#1, 50-1)
Bernardini (#2, 30-1)
Blame (#3, 30-1)
Candy Ride-ARG (#4, 30-1)
Curlin (#5, 30-1)
Distorted Humor (#6, 20-1)
Eskendereya (#7, 30-1)
Ghostzapper (#8, 30-1)
Giant’s Causeway (#9, 20-1)
Hard Spun (#10, 30-1)
Harlan’s Holiday (#11, 30-1)
Kitten’s Joy (#12, 30-1)
Malibu Moon (#13, 20-1)
Medaglia d’Oro (#14, 20-1)
Pioneerof the Nile (#15, 15-1)
Scat Daddy (#16, 30-1)
Street Sense (#17, 30-1)
Super Saver (#18, 50-1)
Tapit (#19, 15-1)
Tiznow (#20, 20-1)
Unbridled’s Song (#21, 20-1)
Uncle Mo (#22, 20-1)
War Front (#23, 20-1)
 “All Other Sires” (#24, 1-1)

Kentucky Derby 2016 Future Wager Field Pool 1 (with betting number and morning line odds):

Airoforce (#1, 20-1)    
Annual Report (#2, 30-1)    
Brody’s Cause    (#3, 15-1)    
Cocked and Loaded (#4, 30-1)    
Conquest Big E (#5, 50-1)    
Drefong (#6, 30-1)    
Exaggerator (#7, 30-1)    
Flexibility (#8, 30-1)    
Gift Box (#9, 30-1)    
Greenpointcrusader (#10, 30-1)    
Gun Runner (#11, 30-1)    
Matt King Coal (#12, 20-1)
Mohaymen (#13, 15-1)    
Mor Spirit (#14, 20-1)    
Nyquist (#15, 10-1)    
Rated R Superstar (#16, 50-1)    
Riker (#17, 30-1)    
Sail Ahoy (#18, 30-1)    
Sunny Ridge (#19, 50-1)    
Swipe (#20, 15-1)    
Synchrony (#21, 30-1)    
Toews On Ice (#22, 30-1)    
Unbridled Outlaw (#23, 30-1)    
Mutuel Field – “All Others” (#24, 7-5)        
Morning Line Odds by Mike Battaglia

Graded Recaps (Derby Points Races)

G3 Delta Jackpot (11-21-15, 92 BSF): The Jackpot is run on a tricky six furlong bullring in Louisiana and rarely has a big impact on the Derby. In this year’s renewal, strong favorite Exaggerator was content to stalk the pace but nobody really wanted the lead so Kent D was able to secure a short lead throughout on a muddy, sealed surface. G1 Champagne runner-up Sunny Ridge took up the chase after six furlongs and fell a neck short while well clear of show finisher Harlan Punch. The 1-2 Jackpot finishers are solid horses but seem a cut or two below the top juveniles in the country.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2016 Contenders

(1) MOHAYMEN (Tapit – Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union) mohaymen silks

Trainer (Kiaran Mclaughlin) – Owner (Shadwell Stable)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.12 (2/4) at Belmont Park on Nov 18.

Comments: The $2.2 million yearling purchase was a determined 1/2 length winner (87 BSF) at six furlongs in his Belmont Park debut on 9-19-15. In the G2 Nashua on Nov 4 at Aqueduct, he stalked wide, took a clear lead in the stretch, and won nicely by 1.75 lengths (89 BSF) under a hand drive. He is entered in the G2 Remsen (race 5) at Aqueduct on Nov 28. He retains the top spot.

(2) MOR SPIRIT (Eskendereya – Im a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union) mor spirit silks

Trainer (Bob Baffert) – Owner (Michael Lund Petersen)

Latest Workout: 6f in 1:16.20 (10/10) at Santa Anita Park on Nov 22.

Comments: $650k purchase had a slow start, made a nice inside middle move, took the lead, and ended up a clear 2nd (83 BSF) in his 6f Santa Anita debut Sept 27. He returned at a flat mile Oct 23 and cantered to an easy win (92 BSF) as the 1-2 favorite (geared down under Gary Stevens). He is entered in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (race 11) at Churchill Downs on Nov 28. He stays put at #2.

(3) BRODY’S CAUSE (Giant’s Causeway – Sweet Breanna, by Sahm) brody's cause silks

Trainer (Dale Romans) – Owner (Albaugh Family Stable)

Comments: Looked great from off the pace in back-to-back wins at Churchill (one mile maiden win) and Keeneland (G1 Breeders’ Futurity). He worked his way through traffic to finish a decent 3rd in the BC Juvenile and continues to look like a solid stretch factor on the Derby trail. He moved up one notch to #3 last time and stays right there.

Derby Points (14)

(4) GREENPOINTCRUSADER (Bernardini – Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance) greenpointcrusader silks

Trainer (Dominick Schettino) – Owner (St. Elias Stable)

Comments: Put it all together from off the pace in a strong 4-1/2 length victory in the Champagne. I really like his pedigree and he figures to get better with age. The BC Juvenile favorite was too far back early and ended up a better than appears 7th after getting fanned very wide in the lane at Keeneland Oct 31. He exited the BC Juvenile with an eye ulcer, probably caused by flying dirt during the running of the race. His connections are deciding whether to winter in New York or Florida and he will not run again this year.  He retains his #4 ranking and I still like him as a long term prospect.

Derby Points (10)

(5) CONQUEST BIG E (Tapit – Seeinsbelieven, by Carson City) conquest big e silks

Trainer (Mark Casse) – Owner (Conquest Stables, LLC.)

Latest Workout: 4f bullet in :47.20 (1/68) at Churchill Downs on Nov 20.

Comments: Visually impressive maiden win at Keeneland Oct 2. In the BC Juvenile, he chased the pace from the inside pace and faded to finish 8th. I thought the Juvenile might be a bit too much too soon, but he is still learning and remains a promising sort. He is entered in a one mile Optional Claiming event (race 10) at Churchill Downs on Nov 28. He is still ranked #5.

(6) SAIL AHOY (Bernardini – Matlacha Pass, by Seeking the Gold) sail ahoy silks

Trainer (Shug McGaughey) – Owner (Phipps Stable)

Latest Workout: 4f in :47.83 (6/62) at Belmont Park on Nov 22.

Comments: He did not run a complete race from start to finish and ended up an even 4th in the Champagne. He was last for much of the race and rallied for the show (missed 2nd by a neck) in the G2 Nashua. As stated before, he figures to improve around two turns and should get better next year for patient trainer Shug McGaughey, who saddled Kentucky Derby winner Orb in 2013. He is entered in the G2 Remsen (race 5) at Aqueduct on Nov 28. He holds his #6 position.

Derby Points (1)

(7) SEYMOURDINI (Bernardini – Graeme Six, by Graeme Hall) seymourdini silks

Trainer (Linda Rice) – Owner (Iris Smith Stable)

Comments: $900k purchase battled with Mohaymen throughout and ended up 2nd in his debut.He was clearly second best as the favorite (beaten 1/2 length) in a 6f special weight sprint at Belmont Park Oct 28 on a muddy (sealed) racetrack. In a one mile straight maiden race at Aqueduct on Nov 22, he controlled the pace as the heavy favorite and won by nine lengths under hand urging. He stays put at #7.

(8) MATT KING COAL (Cool Coal Man – Donna Marie, by Came Home) matt king coal silks

Trainer (Linda Rice) – Owner (Lady Sheila Stable)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:03.06 (19/40) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on Nov 14.

Comments: Owns two of the better juvenile speed figures this year in a clear place finish at 8.5 furlongs at Belmont Oct 3 (93 BSF) and a 96 BSF for his easy flat mile wire job maiden win at that same venue Oct 29. He remains at #8.

(9) GIFT BOX (Twirling Candy – Special Me, by Unbridled’s Song) gift box silks

Trainer (Chad Brown) – Owner (W. S. Farish)

Latest Workout: 5f breeze in 1:01.85 (13/35) at Belmont Park on Nov 14.

Comments: Beat Matt King Coal by a nose at 8.5f (Belmont Park, Oct 3) and was flattered when that one returned to win impressively four weeks later. Also, the show finisher was another 18 lengths back Oct 3 so the top two were much the best. He is entered in the G2 Remsen (race 5) at Aqueduct on Nov 28. He stays at #9.

(10) NYQUIST (Uncle Mo – Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry) nyquist silks

Trainer (Doug O’Neill) – Owner (Reddam Racing LLC.)

Comments: Ran his record to 5-for-5 and wrapped up the 2-year-old title in the BC Juvenile. To his credit, he was farther back than usual and raced wide from post 13. He gamely held off Swipe for the fourth consecutive race but the final clocking was more than a second slower than filly counterpart Songbird once again. He still seems like a miler type but keeps on winning. At this stage he is in great shape in regards to Derby points and is expected to have two 2016 preps prior to the first Saturday in May. The deserving juvenile champ moves up on position to #10.

Derby Points (30)

(11) STREET VISION (Street Sense – Emmy’s Storm, by Stormy Atlantic) street vision silks

Trainer (Mark Glatt) – Owner (Norman Stables, LLC.)

Comments: Could not match strides with Toews On Ice in the Speakeasy (six furlongs) at Santa Anita Oct 18 but was clearly second best. He failed to threaten when 5th of 7 in the G3 Bob Hope (7f @ DMR on Nov 14), a race in which the top three dominated throughout (Toews On Ice, Mac Daddy Mac, I’malreadythere). I believe he will improve around two turns and hope he gets a chance to route in the near future. He clings to the bottom of the list.

Honorable Mention: (12) Swipe, (13) Exaggerator, (14) I Will Score, (15) Riker, (16) Rafting, (17) Annual Report, (18) Flexibility, (19) Toews On Ice, (20) Mac Daddy Mac

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