Breeders’ Cup Friday Full Card Recap from Keeneland (10-30-15)

Keeneland full card analysis for Breeders’ Cup Friday (10-30-15)
By Jarrod Horak (horseracingnation.com, pick6blog.com, therunawayhorse.com)
Weather: Sunny. High 60. Best Bets (races 1, 7, 9)
Pick 5, Pick 4, and Pick 6 Tickets included in .pdf file

HIGHLIGHTS (winning wagers based on $2 payouts):
KEE 6 BC Juvenile Turf – HIT IT A BOMB ($16.40), Exacta ($83.40), Trifecta ($1,471)
Double (Races 5-6, $226.80)
Pick 3 (Races 5-7, $165.20)
KEE 8  BC Juvenile Fillies Turf – Catch a Glimpse/Alice Springs Exacta ($81.20)
Pick 3 ($2 payout Races 6-8, $235.00)
KEE 9 BC Distaff – STOPCHARGINGMARIA (Best Bet #3, $16.20)
Double (Races 8-9, $125.00)
Pick 3 (Races 7-9 ($203.40)
Pick 3 (Races 8-10, $1,051.40)

Saturday Breeders Cup full card october 31 (click add to cart)$15

Add to Cart
***Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup full card anaylsis from Keeneland includes Pick 5, Pick 4, and Pick 6 tickets.

2015 Full Card Schedule

I am offering the following full cards for $10/each at therunawayhorse.com:

BREEDERS’ CUP Saturday from KEENELAND (Oct 31, $15).

DEL MAR full card weekends (Nov 1, Nov 7-8, Nov 14-15, Nov 21-22, Nov 28-29).

Breeders’ Cup Friday Analysis (10-30-15)

KEE 1 (OC-80k, 6f) #7 CANDIP (7-2) fired Exacta shots in his last four and earned a quality number finishing 2nd to BC Sprint entrant Ivan Fallunovalot in the RP Sprint Cup Sept 27. Tomlinson is sending out live runners here (8-2-3-2) and an outside early/pressing trip at his favorite distance is expected. #5 Pablo Del Monte (5-2) turns back and adds blinkers. He might be able to stalk the pace. #6 Helooksthepart (8-1) is fresh and gets a nice pace setup in the paper race. THE PLAYS: #7 to win, Exacta 7/5-6, Exacta 5-6/7

KEE 2 (Alw-70k, 6f) #9 SMOOTH CARAMEL (4-1) exits back-to-back wins including a comfortable course/distance tally vs. $50 (NW2L) claimers Oct 15. She’ll have to push her number up a few points to win again but that is certainly possible. #1 Street Blush (5-1) won her long ago debut at the Spa and the show finisher was a next out winner. Nicks has her now and he’s having a fine year. #5 Titanium (3-1) was 2nd here at seven panels Oct 16 and that was her best effort since pairing-up strong Churchill wins May 29 and June 26. #6 Mercer Mill Mae (4-1) exits a decent place finish in an extended sprint at Churchill and Lovell has sent out five starters and four Exacta finishers here. #7 Chanteline (7-2) has been part of the Trifecta in all six outings. THE PLAYS: #9 to win, Trifecta 1-9/1-5-6-7-9/1-5-6-7-9

KEE 3 (OC-62.5k, 7f) #7 ALLIED AIR RAID (7-2) was my G2 Super Derby top and he ended up an even 3rd that day. He can sprint or route and and is always part of the Trifecta (7-2-3-2). #6 Texas Two Step (7-2) is 0-for-3 this year but might be effective today because his last win was off a similar April/October layoff in a local sprint last year. #9 The Truth Or Else (3-1) exits a disappointing 7th of 12 in the G3 Oklahoma Derby. In his last 10 outings, he lost 8 stakes and won a maiden race and optional claiming race, both at Belmont. THE PLAYS: #7 to win, Exacta 7/6-9, Exacta 6-9/7

KEE 4 (Bryan Station, 9T) #3 FUNDAMENTAL (4-1) packs a nice punch at nine furlongs for Brown. His numbers started rising with the addition of blinkers Aug 16 and he might be sitting on a new top 3rd off the shelf. #10 Billy’s Star (8-1) ran well in back-to-back Woodbine all-weather stakes and was a rallying 3rd in a turf route before that. He looks interesting for Attfield. #9 Closing Bell (5-2) bettered his number in all five starts culminating in the Dueling Grounds Derby Sept 14. Mott’s $400k purchase is a fresh late threat. #2 Tale of Life (9-2) never lifted a hoof in a puzzling effort in the G3 Hill Prince. He looked good in his winning U.S. bow at the Spa and can bounce back for Motion. THE PLAYS: #3 to win, Exacta 3/2-9-10, Exacta 2-9-10/3

KEE 5 (G2 Fayette, 9f) #6 PROTONICO (3-1) sometimes throws in clunkers like the G1 Woodward, G1 Donn, and G2 PA Derby, but he is also brilliant at times (G3 Smarty Jones, G3 Discovery, G3 Ben Ali, G2 Alysheba). His Woodward clunker might throw handicappers off the scent and his smart Ben Ali score here would put him in the hunt throughout. #3 Race Day (10-1) exits back-to-back disappointing efforts in the G3 Salvator Mile and G1 Forego. He won the G2 Oaklawn ‘Cap at this distance April 11 and fits with these on his best day. #5 Hoppertunity (7-2) usually takes money and typically tries hard but has dropped six straight. #9 Commissioner (5-1) won the G3 Skip Away and G3 Pimlico Special earlier this year, both following a layoff, so we know he runs well fresh. #11 Eagle (20-1) is 2-for-2 here and the number he earned last time puts him ballpark. THE PLAYS: #6 to win, Trifecta Key 6/3-5-9-11, Trifecta 3-5-9-11/6/3-5-9-11, Trifecta 3-5-9-11/3-5-9-11/6

KEE 6 (BC Juvenile Turf, 8T) #14 HIT A BOMB (9-2) won both starts in Ireland and beat 21 foes in his seven furlong turf sprint debut (83 Racing Post Rating). He cruised on all-weather ground at seven panels Oct 9 (110 Racing Post Rating) and Aidan O’Brien’s Kentucky-bred should love this trip (War Front/Sadler’s Wells). #13 Cymric (7-2) missed by a neck in a Group 1 at this distance Oct 4 for Gosden and earned a quality 112 Racing Post Rating. He’s bred for U.S. turf (Kitten’s Joy/Unbridled’s Song). #8 Airoforce (4-1) won his turf sprint bow on firm ground at Kentucky Downs and scored from post 13 on yielding turf in the G3 Bourbon here Oct 4. #6 Birchwood (12-1) is a 3-time overseas turf sprint winner but each of those wins were accomplished on straight courses (He is 0-for-2 on courses with turns). He has quality connections and fits on Racing Post Ratings (105-107-108). #7 Ray’s the Bar (20-1) beat a dozen in his overseas turf sprint bow (82 Racing Post Rating) and finished a troubled 3rd in the G3 Pilgrim for Brown, who also saddles #12 Camelot Kitten (12-1). The latter earned the best last race U.S. number in his debut maiden win at Belmont Oct 18. #4 Shogun (12-1) finished 6th, 1.75 lengths behind Cymric in a Group 1 at Longchamp Oct 3. He adds lasix and blinkers for O’Brien and he drew a favorable post position. THE PLAYS: #14 to win, Exacta 14/8-13, Exacta 8-13/14, Trifecta 13-14/6-8-13-14/4-6-7-8-12-13-14, Superfecta 14/8-13/8-13/ALL, Superfecta 14/8-13/ALL/8-13, Superfecta 14/ALL/8-13/8-13

KEE 7 (BC Dirt Mile, 8f) #1 RED VINE (6-1) ran on nicely in the G2 Kelso but was never going to catch lone speed Appealing Tale on a wet track at Belmont that day. He has turned the corner on dirt and this is the right two turn distance. #5 Lea (8-1) is a classy, consistent dirt and turf performer from a flat mile to ten furlongs. He is fresh, 3-for-3 at this distance, and is training well for this. #3 Liam’s Map (1-1) is the best horse on numbers but should have entered the Classic because the race shape would have flattered him in that race and  the easy way out does not always work. #8 Wicked Strong (5-1) ran his best race this year in the G1 JCGC. He’s 0-for-7 this year and is worth using underneath at the very least. #9 Tapiture (10-1) was 2nd in this event last year and got back on the beam in a game victory in the G3 Ack Ack Sept 26. He is training well for this and might be getting good again at the right time. #10 Valid (10-1 is a consistent flat mile specialist (10-4-1-3) with tactical speed. THE PLAYS: #1 to win, Exacta 1/3-5-8, Exacta 3-5-8/1, Trifecta 1-5/1-3-5-8/1-3-5-8-9-10, Superfecta 1/3-5-8/3-5-8/ALL, Superfecta 1/3-5-8/ALL/3-5-8, Superfecta 1/ALL/3-5-8/3-5-8

KEE 8 (BC Juvenile Fillies Turf) #3 ALICE SPRINGS (6-1) was only 1.25 lengths behind Illuminate at 6f Sept 26 and came back to cruise vs. eleven foes at seven furlongs a week later (both under Ryan Moore). She drew well, is bred to go this far, and is on the improve for O’Brien. #14 Last Waltz (20-1) is now trained by Chad Brown and her Racing Post Rating advanced in all four outings (102-98-83-74). #9 Nemoralia (15-1) was 2nd in the G1 Frizette (sloppy track) and beat 18 foes in an overseas turf sprint Sept 10 (94 Racing Post Rating). I always respect Noseda when he enters a horse in the U.S. #4 Catch a Glimpse (5-1) exits back-to-back Woodbine turf wire jobs and the 2-3 finishers from the G2 Natalma both came back to score. #8 Harmonize (7-2) is versatile, training well, and a nose away from being undefeated. #10 Illuminate (9-2) brings strong overseas turf sprint form to the table for Hannon and her Racing Post Ratings are strong (112-107-107-85). THE PLAYS: #3 to win, Exacta 3/4-9-14, Exacta 4-9-14/3, Trifecta 3-14/3-4-8-9-10-14/3-4-8-9-10-14, Superfecta 3/9-14/9-14/ALL, Superfecta 3/9-14/ALL/9-14, Superfecta 3/ALL/9-14/9-14

KEE 9 (BC Distaff, 9f) #4 STOPCHARGINGMARIA (5-1) dueled and ended up 4th as the favorite in the G1 Personal Ensign, and that was the first time she finished out of the top three since April 2014. She runs well fresh, finished strong in a local work Oct 24, and should revert to patient tactics with other speed signed up. #14 Sheer Drama (9-2) is fresh and on top of her game. She exits back-to-back wins the G1 Del ‘Cap and G1 Personal Ensign and vanquished foes Frivolous and Got Lucky both returned to win stakes events. #12 Got Lucky (6-1) was one I was following last year and she really turned the corner this year with wins in the G3 Molly Pitcher at Monmouth and G1 Spinster here Oct 4. #7 Wedding Toast (4-1) is a sharp early factor for McLaughlin but she is best at Belmont and should get pace pressure. #10 Yahilwa (20-1) was 2nd in the Spinster and continues to train forwardly. She can spice up the exotics. #2 Frivolous (30-1) is talented enough to compete with these on her best day but she prefers Churchill Downs. The sophomore fillies have been beating each other all year and seem a cut below the best (3YO Filles: #8 Curalina, #1 I’m a Chatterbox, #3 Salama, #9 Stellar Wind, #5 Calamity Kate, #15 Peace and War). #11 Untapable is sick and has been scratched. THE PLAYS: #4 to win, Exacta 4/12-14, Exacta 12-14/4, Trifecta 4-12-14/4-7-10-12-14/4-7-10-12-14, Superfecta 4/12-14/12-14/ALL, 4/12-14/ALL/12-14, 4/ALL/12-14/12-14

KEE 10 (G2 Marathon, 14f) #14 ZAMBIAN DREAM  (20-1) continues to improve in the U.S. for Pletcher. He was 2nd (six clear of 3rd) to G2 Fayette entrant Eagle here Oct 11 and was 2nd in the G1 Chilean Derby (12f turf) last year. #4 Neck ‘n Neck (3-1), #9 Majestic Harbor (7-2), and #1 For Greater Glory (6-1) finished 1-2-3 in the G3 Greenwood Cup (12f dirt) at Parx Sept 7. #13 Bailoutbobby (6-1) might be a good underneath key. He is 0-for-10 this year but in his two longest dirt races this year he was 2nd in the G3 Cougar II and 2nd in the G3 Tokyo City, both at twelve furlongs in SoCal. THE PLAYS: #14 to win, Exacta 1-4-9-14/13, Trifecta 1-4-9-14/ALL/13, Superfecta 1-4-9-14/ALL/1-4-9-14/13

Double/Pick 3/Pick 4/Pick 5/Pick 6 contenders – in order of preference
1    (7-5-6)
2    (9-1-5-6-7)
3    (7-6-9)
4    (3-10-9-2)
5    (6-3-5-9-11)
6    (14-13-8-6-7-12-4)
7    (1-5-3-8-9-10)
8    (3-14-9-4-8-10)
9    (4-14-12-7)
10 (14-4-9-1-13)

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