Kentucky Derby 2015: SA Derby video + Wood Memorial analysis

KENTUCKY DERBY 2015 Contenders: SA Derby video

Santa Anita Derby favorite Dortmund makes his final Kentucky Derby 2015 trail prep start and tries to stay unbeaten on Saturday at Santa Anita Park.

Dortmund has already qualified for the Kentucky Derby on points but his main rivals have not so look for Prospect Park, Bolo, and One Lucky Dane to put everything on the line at the Great Race Place.

The G1 Wood Memorial features NY lover El Kabeir vs. Florida shippers Daredevil and Frosted.

Daredevil horse

Daredevil is the Wood Memorial favorite – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

#4 FROSTED (5-2) looked like he was on his way to a facile victory in the FOY but he inexplicably came to a stop in the stretch. The Gulfstream Park main track was very strange on the FOY and Florida Derby Day and McLaughlin did the right thing getting out of dodge. He is proven at Aqueduct, switches to Rosario, and might bounce back in a big way. He’s my top selection.

#6 Daredevil (9-5) loves the Belmont goo and clearly relishes one turn races. He has put up some big numbers but only has one start at seven panels in 5+ months and must prove himself around two turns.

#5 El Kabeir (3-1) owns running style versatility and always runs his race. He will be there to pick up the pieces if Frosted and-or Daredevil stub their toe.

#1 Tiz Shea D (8-1) has a ton of upside and sports a strong pedigree but I am expecting much more from the lightly raced G3 Gotham runner-up later this year.

The Wood Memorial field is completed by outsiders #2 Toasting Master (20-1), #3 Lieutenant Colonel (15-1), and #7 Tencendur (12-1).

A final note about the Wood Memorial. Far From Over was originally pointing to the Wood but came up with an injury and is off the Derby trail.

Suggested 2015 Wood Memorial Wagers:

$24 to win #4

$5 Exacta 5, 6 over 4 ($10)

$1 Trifecta Key 7 over 1, 5, 6 ($6)

Graded Recaps

G1 Florida Derby (110 BSF): Materiality ran his record to 3-for-3 with a solid win over Upstart but I am not buying the inflated speed figure. Upstart had his number taken down in an ugly renewal of the FOY and I was not impressed with the stretch run of the Florida Derby either. The Gulfstream Park main track was odd to say the least and I do not know what to make of the Kentucky Derby contenders exiting that oval.

G2 Louisiana Derby (98 BSF): International Star completed a sweep of the two turn graded Derby preps at Fair Grounds with a determined, hard fought win over Stanford in the LA Derby. War Story finished 3rd.

Click on the names of each horse below (Top 5) to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2015 Contenders

  1. CARPE DIEM (Giant’s Causeway – Rebridled Dreams, by Unbridled’s Song) carpe diem silks

Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Owner: WinStar Farm & Stonestreet Stables

Latest Published Workout: 4f in :47.98 (3/19) at Palm Beach Downs on March 28.

Last Start: 1st in G2 Tampa Bay Derby on March 7.

Comments: He looks like a complete standout in the G1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday, April 4.

Derby Points (64)

  1. DORTMUND (Big Brown – Our Josephina, by Tale of the Cat) dortmund silks

Trainer: Bob Baffert – Owner: Kaleem Shah, Inc.

Latest Published Workout: 6f in 1:11.60 (3/31) at Santa Anita on March 28.

Last Start: 1st in G2 San Felipe on March 7.

Comments: After back-to-back grueling efforts, he got a much needed easy wire job win in the San Felipe. He is the strong G1 SA Derby favorite.

Derby Points (70)

  1. INTERNATIONAL STAR (Fusaichi Pegasus – Parlez, by French Deputy) international star silks

Trainer: Michael Maker – Owner: Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey

Last Start: 1st in G2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on Saturday, March 28.

Comments: My original #1 ranked Ky Derby contender when I started this list Sept. ’14. He keeps getting better but needs further improvement to make a splash on the first Saturday in May.

Derby Points (171)

  1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (Pioneerof The Nile – Littleprincessemma, by Yankee Gentleman) american pharoah silks

Trainer: Bob Baffert – Owner: Zayat Stables

Latest Published Workout: 5f in :58.60 (2/88) at Santa Anita on March 29.

Last Start: 1st in the G2 Rebel Stakes.

Comments: Controlled the pace in all three of his graded wins and will return to Oaklawn for his final Derby prep in the Arkansas Derby.

Derby Points (60)

  1. EL KABEIR (Scat Daddy – Great Venue, by Unbridled’s Song) el kabeir silks

Trainer: John Terranova II – Owner: Zayat Stables

Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:01.12 (2/28) at Belmont (dirt training) on March 30.

Last Start: 1st in G3 Gotham Stakes on March 7.

Comments: He added a new closing weapon to his arsenal in the Gotham Stakes. The Wood Memorial is his final Derby prep.

Derby Points (75)

  1. FIRING LINE (Line of David – Sister Girl Blues, by Hold for Gold) firing line silks

Trainer: Simon Callaghan – Owner: Arnold Zetcher

Last Start: 1st in G3 Sunland Derby on March 22.

Comments: After two grueling defeats to Dortmund, he cruised to an effortless tally in New Mexico and has wrapped up his Derby prep campaign.

Derby Points (58)

  1. UPSTART (Flatter – Party Silks, by Touch Gold) upstart silks

Trainer: Richard Violette – Owner: Ralph M. Evans

Last Start: 2nd in G1 Florida Derby on March 28.

Comments: Gem of consistency exits the baffling Gulfstream Park Ky Derby prep series.

Derby Points (76)

  1. FROSTED (Tapit – Fast Cookie, by Deputy Minister) frosted silks

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin – Owner: Godolphin Racing

Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:00.45 (2/15) at Palm Meadows on March 29.

Last Start: Fading 4th in G2 Fountain of Youth.

Comments: He returns to his favorite track to compete in the Wood Memorial.

Derby Points (13)

  1. DAREDEVIL (More Than Ready – Chasethewildwind, by Forty Niner) daredevil silks

Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Owner: Let’s Go Stable

Latest Published Workout: 4f in :48.45 (23/89) at Belmont (dirt training) on March 29.

Last Start: 2nd in G2 Swale at Gulfstream Park on March 7.

Comments: He is the Wood Memorial favorite but still has some questions to answer Saturday.

Derby Points (10)

  1. PROSPECT PARK (Tapit – Quiet Romance, by Bertrando) prospect park silks

Trainer: Clifford Sise Jr. – Owner: Martin & Pam Wygod

Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:01.20 (46/83) at Santa Anita on March 28.

Last Start: 2nd in G2 San Felipe on March 7.

Comments: Rapidly improving colt finished well for the place in the San Felipe. He is training well for the SA Derby.

Derby Points (20)

  1. MATERIALITY (Afleet Alex – Wildwood Flower, by Langfuhr) materiality silks

Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Owner: Alto Racing, LLC.

Last Start: 1st in G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on March 28.

Comments: The last unraced 2-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby was Apollo in 1882.

Derby Points (100)

Honorable Mention: (12) Far Right, (13) War Story, (14) Classy Class, (15) The Truth Or Else, (16) Ami’s Flatter, (17) Bolo, (18) Dubai Sky, (19) Itsaknockout, (20) Ocho Ocho Ocho, (21) One Lucky Dane, (22) Stanford, (23) Conquest Typhoon, (24) Madefromlucky, (25) Tiz Shea D

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: