KENTUCKY DERBY 2015 Contenders: Florida Derby analysis

Florida Derby favorite Upstart makes his final stop on the Kentucky Derby 2015 trail at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, March 28.

Upstart

Upstart is the Florida Derby fav – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

The Fountain of Youth Stakes did not look good from a visual standpoint, and Florida Derby favorites #4 Itsaknockout (2-1) and #9 Upstart (8-5) both exit that less than stellar heat. The former has upside with only three starts under his belt and the latter is a gem of consistency.

#7 MATERIALITY (7-2) is the stranger danger for Todd Pletcher. He has the same profile as 2014 Florida Derby winner Constitution and could easily make it three straight under Johnny V. He’s my top selection.

#1 Ami’s Flatter (8-1) was my longshot underneath key in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby on March 7th and he did not disappoint with a solid place finish at 13.50-1. Leading rider Javier Castellano hops aboard and he could spice up the exotics again.

Dale Romans just failed with Shackleford in the 2011 Florida Derby at almost 69-1 and he saddles another longshot this year, #3 Indianaughty (20-1). The son of Indian Charlie is bred for dirt and might move up 3rd off the shelf.

The Florida Derby field is completed by outsiders #2 Jack Tripp (20-1), #5 Quimet (20-1), #6 My Point Exactly (30-1), and #8 Dekabrist (30-1).

Suggested 2015 Florida Derby Wagers:

$20 to win #7

$4 Exacta 7 over 1, 3 ($8)

$2 Exacta 1, 3 over 7 ($4)

$1 Trifecta Key 7 over 1, 3, 4, 9 ($12)

.50 cent Trifecta 4, 7, 9 with 4, 7, 9 with 1, 3 ($6)

Graded Recaps

G3 Spiral (92 BSF): Dubai Sky was always traveling well from the outside and comfortably finished in front of Conquest Typhoon and Firespike.

G3 Sunland Derby (97 BSF): Firing Line could not have had an easier final Derby prep, winning by the length of the grandstand under jockey Gary Stevens. Where’s the Moon was more than fourteen lengths back in 2nd and Pain and Misery landed the show.

Check out my written analysis of the 2015 Louisiana Derby at HorseRacingNation.com!

Click on the names of each horse below (Top 5) to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2015 Contenders

  1. CARPE DIEM (Giant’s Causeway – Rebridled Dreams, by Unbridled’s Song) carpe diem silks

Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Owner: WinStar Farm & Stonestreet Stables

Latest Published Workout: 4f in :48.92 (7/30) at Palm Beach Downs on March 21.

Last Start: 1st in G2 Tampa Bay Derby on March 7.

Comments: He will have his final Derby prep in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday, April 4.

Derby Points (64)

  1. DORTMUND (Big Brown – Our Josephina, by Tale of the Cat) dortmund silks

Trainer: Bob Baffert – Owner: Kaleem Shah, Inc.

Latest Published Workout: 6f in 1:12 (2/18) at Santa Anita on March 21.

Last Start: 1st in G2 San Felipe on March 7.

Comments: After back-to-back grueling efforts, he got a much needed easy wire job win in the San Felipe. The SA Derby on April 4 is next.

Derby Points (70)

  1. INTERNATIONAL STAR (Fusaichi Pegasus – Parlez, by French Deputy) international star silks

Trainer: Michael Maker – Owner: Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey

Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:02.47 (19/30) at Gulfstream on March 22.

Last Start: 1st in G2 Risen Star.

Comments: He drew the outside post in the G2 LA Derby at Fair Grounds on March 28.

Derby Points (71)

  1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (Pioneerof The Nile – Littleprincessemma, by Yankee Gentleman) american pharoah silks

Trainer: Bob Baffert – Owner: Zayat Stables

Last Start: 1st in the G2 Rebel Stakes.

Comments: Controlled the pace in all three of his graded wins and will return to Oaklawn for his final Derby prep in the Arkansas Derby.

Derby Points (60)

  1. EL KABEIR (Scat Daddy – Great Venue, by Unbridled’s Song) el kabeir silks

Trainer: John Terranova II – Owner: Zayat Stables

Latest Published Workout: 5f bullet in :59.90 (1/23) at Belmont (dirt training) on March 22.

Last Start: 1st in G3 Gotham Stakes on March 7.

Comments: He added a new closing weapon to his arsenal in the Gotham Stakes. The Wood Memorial is his final Derby prep.

Derby Points (75)

  1. UPSTART (Flatter – Party Silks, by Touch Gold) upstart silks

Trainer: Richard Violette – Owner: Ralph M. Evans

Latest Published Workout: 5f in :59.55 (4/24) at Palm Meadows on March 21.

Last Start: Disqualified from 1st and placed 2nd in G2 Fountain of Youth.

Comments: Crossed the line first in the FOY but did not look like the sharp Holy Bull winner. He is the Florida Derby favorite.

Derby Points (36)

  1. FROSTED (Tapit – Fast Cookie, by Deputy Minister) frosted silks

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin – Owner: Godolphin Racing

Latest Published Workout: 5f bullet in :59.85 (1/18) at Palm Meadows on March 20.

Last Start: Fading 4th in G2 Fountain of Youth.

Comments: He returns to his favorite track to compete in the Wood Memorial.

Derby Points (13)

  1. DAREDEVIL (More Than Ready – Chasethewildwind, by Forty Niner) daredevil silks

Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Owner: Let’s Go Stable

Latest Published Workout: 4f bullet in :48.40 (1/30) at Palm Beach Downs on March 21.

Last Start: 2nd in G2 Swale.

Comments: A solid place finish in his Swale return should set him up nicely for the Wood Memorial.

Derby Points (10)

  1. FIRING LINE (Line of David – Sister Girl Blues, by Hold for Gold) firing line silks

Trainer: Simon Callaghan – Owner: Arnold Zetcher

Last Start: 1st in G3 Sunland Derby on March 22.

Comments: After two grueling defeats to Dortmund, he cruised to an effortless tally in New Mexico and has wrapped up his Derby prep campaign.

Derby Points (58)

  1. PROSPECT PARK (Tapit – Quiet Romance, by Bertrando) prospect park silks

Trainer: Clifford Sise Jr. – Owner: Martin & Pam Wygod

Latest Published Workout: 6f bullet in 1:11 (1/8) at San Luis Rey on March 21.

Last Start: 2nd in G2 San Felipe on March 7.

Comments: Rapidly improving colt earned important Derby points in the San Felipe. He is reportedly training well for the Santa Anita Derby.

Derby Points (20)

  1. FAR FROM OVER (Blame – Alchemist, by A. P. Indy) Far From Over silks

Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Owner: Black Rock Thoroughbreds, LLC.

Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:01.76 (7/8) at Palm Beach Downs on March 21.

Last Start: 1st in G3 Withers at Aqueduct on Feb 7.

Comments: Skipped the Gotham and goes next in the Wood Memorial.

Derby Points (10)

Honorable Mention: (12) Itsaknockout, (13) Far Right, (14) War Story, (15) Mr. Z, (16) The Truth Or Else, (17) Classy Class, (18) Ami’s Flatter, (19) Bolo, (20) Dubai Sky, (21) Ocho Ocho Ocho, (22) One Lucky Dane, (23) Materiality, (24) Conquest Typhoon, (25) Madefromlucky

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