Breeders’ Cup Friday Recap

I had a great start to Breeders’ Cup weekend on my Friday full card, which is posted below, along with highlights.

Breeders' Cup 2013

Breeders’ Cup 2013

I am offering full card analysis for Breeders’ Cup Saturday.

Saturday’s full card costs $10 and includes analysis of all races on Saturday, horse-by-horse analysis of each Breeders’ Cup entrant, wagering strategies for all races, and suggested Pick 6 Tickets using DRF TicketMaker.

Click here for Saturday’s free BC play – Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

My Breeders’ Cup Saturday full card is complete and ready to purchase on my Today’s Racing Digest Handicapper page. If you are not a Digest member, you can create a free account.

Click here to purchase my Saturday Breeders’ Cup 2013 analysis.

Breeders’ Cup Friday Full Card Highlights

SA 1 Pure Loyalty ($10.80)
SA 7 BC Juvenile Turf – Outstrip (best bet #2, $14), Exacta ($32.10), Trifecta ($71.90), Superfecta ($1,203.10)
SA 8 Goldencents/Golden Ticket Exacta (best bet #3, $34.10), Trifecta ($222.20)
Double (7-8, $58.40)
Pick 3 (7-9, $210.50)
SA 10 Beholder (best bet #4, $9.60)
Double (9-10, $53)
Pick 3 (8-10, $160)
Pick 4 (7-10, $403.90)

Click here to purchase my Saturday Breeders’ Cup 2013 analysis.

Breeders’ Cup Friday full card analysis from Santa Anita (11-1-13)
By Jarrod Horak (horseracingnation.com, pick6blog.com)  
Weather
: Sunny. High 84.    
Best Bets
(races 5, 7, 8, 10)
Pick 6:
  Races 5-10 (see DRF TicketMaker tickets below)

SA 1 (OC-40k/1x, 6.5T) #8 PURE LOYALTY (8-1) graduated over the local weeds and today’s rider Bejarano guided him to a close-up show finish in the G2 La Jolla. He runs well fresh and can surprise on the cut back. #11 U S Citizen (4-1) missed by a neck vs. similar course/distance rivals Set. 27. Tactical types from outer posts can be dangerous down the dip. #12 Omega Star (12-1) is capable of firing occasional big shots but has been disappointing recently. He tries turf for Hollendorfer and Nakatani is enjoying a productive meet. #10 Kochees (8-1) earned his diploma on the downhill course in his career debut. He makes his first start in more than seven months and will try to get involved late. THE PLAYS: #8 to win, Exacta Box 8-11, Exacta 8-11/10-12   

SA 2 (OC-40k/1x, 7f) #13 WILD DUDE (4-1) gets pace to chase and appears well posted on the outside. He owns solid Late Pace Ratings and can grind past these in his 3rd start off the shelf for the productive Bejarano/Hollendorfer team. #11 Drover Crazy (10-1) and #9 Cat Burglar (9-2) both flattered Wild Dude with their own next out local maiden wins on Oct. 5 and Oct. 10. #2 Got Even (4-1) likes this oval and Miller excels with this type of layoff runner. He has speed, attracts Rosario, and has won at this trip before. #6 Door’s Open (6-1) is 3-for-3 here and exits a romping local 6f score. He might not want to go 7f. THE PLAYS: #13 to win, Trifecta Key 13/2-6-9-11, Trifecta 2-6-9-11/13/2-6-9-11  

SA 3 (Golden State Juvenile, 8f) #2 LIFE IS A JOY (9-2) is 3-for-3 and handled dirt with ease last out. Hollendorfer reaches out for Rosario and he figures in the thick of things throughout. Hollendorfer could also win this one from behind with #7 Tamarando (8-5). The latter is back with state bred friends after a fine rallying show finish in the G1 FrontRunner and a late running victory in the G1 Del Mar Futurity. He gets pace to chase and figures mighty tough in this cozy spot. THE PLAYS: #2 to win, Exacta Box 2-7   

SA 4 (Golden State Juvenile Fillies, 8f) #7 WHATSALLTHEDRAMA (9-2) can rumble past numerous suspect speed types for the recently hot Bejarano/Hollendorfer team. #8 Stole a Kiss (7-2) stretches out and switches surfaces off a layoff for the profitable Talamo/Puype team. #2 Cal Gal (3-1) exits a smart downhill turf maiden win for O’Neill. The $310k purchase is bred to go this far on dirt and will probably stalk the pace. THE PLAYS: #7 to win, Exacta 7/2-8, Exacta 2-8/7

SA 5 (G2 Twilight Derby, 9T) #6 DRY SUMMER (10-1) returned as a gelding and finished 4th in the Oceanside and 7th in the paceless division of the G2 Del Mar Derby. He adds blinkers and Rosario and looks like a live price player. #10 Gervinho (6-1) will get the jump on the late runners and could turn the tables on Gabriel Charles if that one gets stuck in traffic. Bejarano sticks with the consistent stalker. #12 Gabriel Charles (9-2) packed a big late kick under Mike Smith in the Oceanside and G2 Del Mar Derby this summer. He must overcome a wide draw but should be finishing fast. #7 Kid Dreams (3-1) exits a romping score over soft ground in the G3 Hawthorne Derby. A competitive 4th in the G2 Del Mar Derby is a better gauge of his ability. THE PLAYS: #6 to win, Exacta 6/10-12, Exacta 10-12/6

SA 6 (G2 BC Marathon) – Horse comments and wagering strategies below.  

Post Time – 4:45pm eastern

#5 SUNS OUT GUNS OUT (10-1) Added blinkers and seemed much more focused in flat mile Parx win Set. 21, and the place finisher came back to score. He appears best on fast dirt, has always been well regarded, and could sit the right tactical trip. He owns a fine pedigree and might have the lead turning for home.

#4 Ever Rider (7-2) – Has plenty of stamina and last year’s Marathon winner Calidoscopio invaded from Argentina.

#2 Cease (8-1) – Added blinkers and won at 7f for Jacobson last time. He finished 5th in this event in 2011.

#1 Old Time Hockey (8-1) – An interesting price player in this spot. He finished a competitive 4th in a Grade II turf marathon this year and sports a 2nd and a 3rd in his three dirt starts.

#10 Worldly (6-1) – Has not won in quite some time but has tactical speed and likes to purse nibble.

#6 Indian Jones (5-1) – Missed by a nose in G3 Greenwood Cup (12f, mud). The East Coast invader will probably sit back and try to get involved late.

#9 Pool Play (8-1) – Rallied for the show in the G3 Greenwood Cup at 12f and has back class. He will be passing tired horses.

#7 London Bridge (8-1) – Flopped in both synthetic starts but really perked up in overseas turf routes. He should stay the trip but is unknown on dirt and is not bred for it.

#8 Blueskiesnrainbows (6-1) and #3 Commander (6-1) are pace players but I don’t think either will be around at the finish.

THE PLAYS:

Win: #5

Exacta: 5/2-4, 2-4/5

Trifecta: 2-4-5/2-4-5/1-2-4-5-10

Superfecta: 4-5/2-4-5/1-2-4-5/1-2-4-5-6-9-10

SA 7 (G2 BC Juvenile Turf) – Horse comments and wagering strategies below.  

Post Time – 5:25pm eastern

#4 OUTSTRIP (4-1) – Ran well in all four 7f turf starts in GB for Godolphin.

#5 Bobby’s Kitten (5-2) – Freaked in G3 Pilgrim for Chad Brown and I like his running style versatility.

#11 Poker Player (12-1) – Packs nice late punch on turf/synthetic for productive Hill-Catalano team.

#2 Giovanni Boldini (7-2) – 2-for-2 in overseas synthetic races at 7f. 3rd of 5 in lone turf try.

#13 Bashart (6-1) – Consistent Pletcher runner owns early-pressing versatility.

#8 Bon Accord (20-1) – Rallied for show in G3 Bourbon (off the turf). Won lone turf try (Calder).

#7 Aotearoa (12-1) – Smart win in Zuma Beach but these are better.

#3 Got Shades (30-1) – 2-time LAD turf stakes winner finished 3rd in Zuma Beach.

#12 Shamshon (12-1) – Won a pair of 5f overseas turf sprints but did not have answer at 6f last time.

#9 Wilshire Boulevard (8-1) – Busy 7-race overseas campaign produced two wins.

#6 Home School (30-1) – Former Ireland runner was 3rd in OT Juvenile Turf and 4th in Zuma Beach.

#10 Ontology (30-1) – Oak Tree Juvenile Turf runner-up is still a maiden after 5 starts.

#1 All Cash (30-1) – Finished a troubled 4th in the G3 Bourbon and was 3rd in both turf starts. Lukas runner is a maiden after four starts. aroaalist flopped in lone dirt try. at Pants On Fire in Penn Mile. Strub Series. llying show finish.

THE PLAYS:

Win: #4

Exacta: 4/2-5-11, 2-5-11/4

Trifecta: 4-5/2-4-5-11/2-4-5-11

Superfecta: 4-5/2-4-5-11/2-4-5-11-13/2-3-4-5-7-8-11-13

SA 8 (G1 BC Dirt Mile) – Horse comments and wagering strategies below.  

Post Time – 6:05pm eastern

#2 GOLDEN TICKET (12-1) – Was looking at Classic before finishing a flat 4th in G1 Awesome Again. Intriguing cuts back player is 1-for-1 at 8f and has the class and running style versatility to contend here.

#12 Goldencents (4-1) – Been sprinting and holding his own vs. older recently. He sports a pair of local graded route wins. Big work for this – 5f in :58.40. Quotes after SA Sprint Championship: “We were very pleased with what he did today,” said O’Neill assistant Leandro Mora.  “It looks like, according to our owners, that we aren’t going to stay sprinting.  We thought we could sprint but the talk is that we are going to keep him at a mile…Even Rafael (Bejarano) said, ‘Please, let’s go longer.’  He’s got a great kick.  The Breeders’ Cup Mile (Nov. 2) is next, definitely.”

#4 Brujo De Olleros (8-1) – Landed the place in G2 Kelso for Team Valor and should get more pace help this time.

#10 Verrazano (3-1) – Capable of huge efforts if everything goes perfectly. He runs well fresh and this is the right race for him.

#11 Pants On Fire (6-1) – 4-time flat mile winner never better. An outside stalking trip seems likely.

#3 Hymn Book (15-1) – Wet track lover usually puts in an honest late run and can spice up the exotics.

#5 Fed Biz (6-1) – 8th as my top in this event last year. Two graded wins this season but does not always show up.

#7 Alpha (8-1) – Saratoga specialist moves up on wet ground but this isn’t the Spa and the ground will be fast. I am a fan but not in this spot.

#8 Holy Lute (20-1) – Tough spot for the talented, lightly raced colt. Could make some noise in Strub Series.

#6 Broadway Empire (12-1) – 4-for-4 on dirt but has never faced this kind.  

#1 Taptowne (15-1) – Figures to attend the pace. 0-for-5 at this trip.

#9 Centralinteligence (15-1) – Gem of inconsistency is a sprinter.

AE Easter Gift (15-1) – Disappointing 5th in G2 Kelso. Was consistent before his last and beat Pants On Fire in Penn Mile.

THE PLAYS:

Win: #2

Exacta: 2/3-4-12, 4-12/2

Trifecta: 2-12/2-4-10-12/2-3-4-10-11-12

Superfecta:  2/4-12/4-12/ALL, 2/4-12/ALL/4-12, 2/ALL/4-12/4-12

SA 9 (G1 BC Juvenile Fillies Turf) – Horse comments and wagering strategies below.  

Post Time – 6:50pm eastern

#2 AL THAKIHRA (6-1) – 2-for-2 in overseas turf sprints. Fine connections and bred to go this far.  

#6 Vorda (4-1) – Overseas turf sprinter sports 4 wins and a 2nd in 5 total starts.

#8 Chrisellium (6-1)  – Sprung 28-1 surprise in G1 Fillies Mile at Newmarket.

#10 Clenor (8-1) – 3-for-3 in SoCal turf routes. Will try to get involved late.

#13 Sky Painter (15-1) – Won turf sprint bow at the Spa after blowing break and rallied to miss by a nose in G3 Miss Grillo. Lightly raced and well-bred Godolphin runner.

#12 Testa Rossi (8-1) – Nipped Sky Painter in G3 Miss Grillo. Overseas transplant has won four straight on turf.

#14 My Conquestadory (9-2) – Beat males in turf stakes bow and overcame lack of pace and trouble to take G1 Alcibiades. Tough post for talented filly.   

#4 Kitten Kaboodle (12-1) – Highly regarded filly smartly earned diploma in G3 Jessamine.

#1 Nesso (20-1) – Showed rating ability in Surfer Girl but was outkicked by Clenor again.

#5 Granny Mc’s Kitten (20-1) – Wide trip 4th from post 10 as beaten favorite in G3 Miss Grillo. She could bounce back with better post/trip.

#9 Dancing House (20-1) – Decent late move to land the show in G3 Miss Grillo. Owns a nice pedigree and can be used underneath.  

#11 Ready to Act (8-1) – Won turf sprint bow and lost rider in the stretch as the favorite in G2 Natalma. Lacks seasoning.   

#7 Street Sailing (15-1) – Easy allowance turf route win at Keeneland last out but these are much tougher. Goes for Team Valor now.

#3 Colonel Joan (20-1) – Surfer Girl show finisher is winless in 3 tries. She will be alright but probably not in this spot.

THE PLAYS:

Win: #2

Exacta 2/6-8, 6-8/2

Trifecta: 2-6-8/2-6-8/2-6-8-10-13

Superfecta 2/6-8/6-8-10/4-5-6-8-10-12-13

SA 10 (G1 BC Distaff) – Horse comments and wagering strategies below.  

Post Time – 7:35pm eastern

#5 BEHOLDER (5-2) The 3yo fillies are talented and this one has the home field advantage. Princess of Sylmar caught her in the Ky Oaks but it could be a different story at SA. Beholder is fresh, seems more relaxed, and Mandella is dangerous in SoCal BC races. Got the best draw possible.

#4 Royal Delta (8-5) – Was not at her best in the G1 Beldame and Princess of Sylmar made her pay the price. She has been inconsistent this year but owns this race and can still be brilliant at times. She is dangerous when allowed to control the pace but this is an unlikely scenario with Beholder signed on.

#6 Princess of Sylmar (9-5) – Rides a 4-race Grade I winning streak but this race seems like an afterthought. She could sit the right trip if Royal Delta & Beholder hook up but I have a feeling that she is over the top.

#3 Close Hatches (6-1) – Exits back-to-back Grade I wins but these are tougher. She will likely stalk the pace in this spot and her task is not impossible but she will need to kick it up a notch.

#2 Authenticity (8-1) – Tries hard but is a cut below the best. The consistent mare always runs her tactical race but a minor award is probably her limit.

#1 Street Girl (30-1) – Put in a late run to land the show in the G1 Cotillion. This track does not flatter sustained runners and she will be left with too much work to do.

THE PLAYS:

Win: #5

Exacta: 5-2

Trifecta: Key 5/2-4-6

Superfecta: 5/4-6/2-4-6/2-3-5-6

SA 11 (G1 President of UAE Cup – Arabians) #9 SMOKE HOUSE (4-1) adds lasix and could sit the right tactical trip in his 3rd start off the shelf. Cintron rides him well. #1 Sergeant Pepper Mhf (6-1) should sit a nice ground saving trip behind the speed at a better distance. #6 Grilla (4-1) is razor sharp now and beat my top at 10f last time. He is dangerous if able to shake loose but a few others might make him work early. #11 So Big Is Better (12-1) is capable of getting involved late on his best day. THE PLAYS: #9 to win, Exacta Box 1-9, Exacta 1-9/6-11   

Double/Pick 3/Pick 4/Pick 5 contenders – in order of preference

Race

1   (8-11-12-10)
2   (13-11-9-2-6)
3   (2-7)
4   (7-8-2)
5   (6-10-12)
6   (5-4-2-1)
7   (4-5-11-2)
8   (2-12-4-10)
9   (2-6-8-10)
10 (5-4-6)
11 (9-1-6-11)

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