Archive for November 30th, 2012

Kentucky Derby 2013 Contenders – Uncaptured barely clings to top spot

Uncaptured made it back-to-back grade stakes wins under the Twin Spires with a determined effort over Frac Daddy and Dewey Square in Saturday’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. He earned a disappointing 76 BSF and his true Kentucky Derby 2013 contender status is unknown at this time.

Uncaptured is 2-for-2 at Churchill Downs – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

I believe the Ky Jockey Club horses are better than the numbers suggest and it will be interesting to see how they fare in the coming months.

Overanalyze defeated Normandy Invasion and Delhomme in the G2 Remsen at the Big A and the BSF came back a surprisingly strong 99. The aforementioned top three were miles clear of the rest but the number seems a bit inflated. Uncaptured dusted Overanalyze in the G3 Iroquois on Oct 28 and it is hard to believe that they earned such drastically different figures four weeks later.

In other action last weekend, Revolutionary (War Pass) finished a flat 3rd to former Exciting Prospects member Orb at the Big A on Nov 24. He’s still a promising sort and should graduate in the near future.

On Thanksgiving Day, Super Ninety Nine (Pulpit) followed up professional 7f debut win at SA on 10-7 with a rallying place finish in the G3 Hollywood Prevue (94 BSF). He seemingly wants a route of ground and should stretch out in the near future. Baffert trainees swept the top four spots with show finisher Shakin It Up possibly best.

Click on the names of each horse below (Top 5 contenders) to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.

Jarrod Horak’s Top Ten Kentucky Derby 2013 Contenders

1. Uncaptured (Lion Heart) – Mark Casse’s Ontario-bred ran his record to 6-for-7 in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. He barely clings to the top spot after earning a surprisingly low 76 BSF. Derby Points (10).

2. Goldencents (Into Mischief) – Champagne runner-up went all the way in the G3 Delta Jackpot. Not sure how far he wants to run but O’Neill should have fun with the speedy sort. Derby Points (14).

3. Violence (Medaglia d’Oro) – Based on his strong route pedigree, he is just getting warmed up. He overcame inexperience to capture G2 Nashua and should continue to progress. Pletcher has mentioned the G1 CashCall Futurity on Dec 15 as his next target. Breezed 4f in :48.04 (4/90) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on 11-18.

4. Balance the Books(Lemon Drop Kid) – Graduated in G2 With Anticipation and rallied outside to get up late in the grassy G3 Bourbon (77 BSF). He rallied nicely to just miss the place in the BC Juvenile Turf and the Chad Brown trainee packs a nice late kick.

5. Noble Tune (Unbridled’s Song) – G3 Pilgrim (82 BSF) hero finished a fine 2nd in the BC Juvenile Turf and appears to have a bright future for Chad Brown.

6. Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy) – Followed up facile maiden route win (90 BSF) with a near miss in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. McPeek will give him a little break and he figures to winter in Florida. Derby Points (4).

7. Power Broker (Pulpit) – $360k purchase graduated in style vs. graded foes in FrontRunner. He raced wide and never got a chance to run his race in BC Juvenile. Derby Points (10). Worked 4f in :47 (2/47) at Santa Anita on 11-20 but will not start again this year. Derby Points (10).

8. Fortify (Distorted Humor) – Debut sprint winner at the Spa followed that up with a 2nd in the G2 Hopeful and a 3rd in G1 Champagne. Lasix-free colt finished a flat 4th in the BC Juvenile and needs time off to grow and mature. Derby Points (3).

9. Capo Bastone (Street Boss) – Closed into the teeth of a speed bias to snatch 3rd in the FrontRunner, and he pulled the same trick in the BC Juvenile. John Sadler’s colt bled in the Cup. Derby Points (4).

Overanalyze is expected to take the NY route to the Derby – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

10. Overanalyze (Dixie Union) – Pletcher’s versatile colt won his second graded race in the Remsen (99 BSF). Early plans have him contesting the Gotham and Wood Memorial at Aqueduct next year. Derby Points (10).

Exciting Prospects (in alphabetical order):

Delhomme (Dixie Union) – Set the pace and ended up a rock solid 3rd in a fast renewal of the Remsen. He will get a breather at WinStar Farm before returning to the Pletcher barn at Palm Meadows. Derby Points (2).

Little Distorted (Distorted Humor) – Beat heavy favorite Revolutionary in his 6f Belmont bow Oct 28 and the top two were well clear of the rest. Winning BSF of 101. Michael Mareina trains the WinStar Farm bred colt. Breezed 4f in :48.46 (13/36) at Gulfstream Park on 11-24.

Normandy Invasion (Tapit) – Chad Brown already has two talented turf runners in my top ten and his Remsen runner-up is worth following. The $230k Keeneland sales grad owns a decent late kick. Derby Points (4).

Palace Malice (Curlin) – The Saratoga maiden breaker is off the Injured Reserve list (bucked shins) and is currently back in Pletcher’s barn in Florida. He should return to the worktab shortly.

Titletown Five (Tiznow) – Facile 7f tally (97 BSF) under Twin Spires in his 4th start. Lukas will give him every chance to make the gate on the first Saturday in May.

Former Top Ten Members

Archwarrior (Arch) – Pletcher’s highly regarded $375k colt was a professional debut winner at Saratoga on 8-30. He finished 4th in the Champagne and was most likely done in by his lack of seasoning. He will probably show up in Florida next year. Derby Points (1).

Gabriel Charles (Street Boss) – 6th in Del Mar Futurity and 7th in FrontRunner. He rebounded smartly in a downhill turf sprint (86 BSF) on the Saturday BC undercard at Santa Anita. He worked 5f in 1:01 (7/34) at SA on 11-24.

Know More (Lion Heart) – FrontRunner place finisher was 13th in the BC Juvenile Turf and 8th in the Delta Jackpot. He has been terribly mismanaged since the FrontRunner and needs time to regroup. Derby Points (4).

Shanghai Bobby

Shanghai Bobby will make his 3yo bow in Gulfstream’s Holy Bull Stakes in January – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Micromanage (Medaglia d’Oro) – Finished a distant last in the Remsen. That effort was too bad to believe but that’s back-to-back disappointments after a promising bow. He will try to regroup and I would not be surprised if he bounced back next time.

Pataky Kid (Rockport Harbor) – G3 Arlington-Washington Futurity hero finished 4th in G1 Breeders’ Futurity and 5th after hopping at start (blinkers on) in G3 Iroquois. Derby Points (1).

Shanghai Bobby (Harlan’s Holiday) – Made it 5-for-5 with a determined win in the G1 BC Juvenile (82 BSF). I always had my doubts about his stamina and he does not want to go beyond 8.5f based on his slow Juvenile effort. He is expected to make his 3yo bow in the Holy Bull at the Gulf on Jan 26. Derby Points (20).

Tizracer (Tiznow) – Improved smartly second time out to romp in flat mile graduation run (92 BSF) at Belmont Park on 9-8. Todd Pletcher trainee attended the pace before weakening to finish 12th in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity. He might not have care for synthetic and deserves a chance to rebound on conventional dirt.

Injured Reserve

Rolling Fog (Posse) – Baffert’s G1 Del Mar Futurity hero is out for 60 days with bucked shins.