Breeders’ Cup Juvenile 2012 analysis – Fortify can surprise

Saturday’s 8th race from Santa Anita Park is the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile for 2-year-olds traveling a mile and a sixteenth on the main track.

Check out my Saturday (Nov 3) Breeders’ Cup analysis (available now) at TodaysRacingDigest.com. Upcoming analysis – Breeders’ Cup from Santa Anita (Nov 3) and Churchill Saturdays (Nov 10, 17, 24).

Derby Wars

Play Saturday’s $30k BC November Shootout at DerbyWars.com

SA 8 (G1 BC Juvenile, 8.5f)

COMMENTS:

1. Title Contender (6-1) – Rode SA speed bias to sharp wire job Sept 29.
2. Speak Logistics (8-1) – Back-to-back wire jobs at Monmouth & Calder.
3. He’s Had Enough (20-1) – Late runner never fired in G1 Breeders’ Futurity.
4. Shanghai Bobby (2-1) – 4-for-4 in one turn NY races.
5. Monument (12-1) – Crawled home in Cal Cup Classic win.
6. Dynamic Sky (12-1) – Improving colt landed place in Breeders’ Futurity.
7. Capo Bastone (15-1) – Rallying show finish against the bias in G1 FrontRunner.
8. FORTIFY (9-2) – Lasix-free colt was no match for Shanghai Bobby in NY.
9. Power Broker (5-2) – Smartly earned diploma in FrontRunner romp.

ANALYSIS:

#8 FORTIFY owns an ascending numbers pattern and is bred to improve as distances increase. Dominguez got to know him last time and his grinding tactical style should play well around two turns. The no lasix rule won’t hurt him and the price should be right.

#9 Power Broker sat an outer tactical trip in the G1 FrontRunner and the $360k purchase sure took to conventional dirt that day. He should sit a similar trip today and a G1 win at this course/distance makes him the one to beat.

#1 Title Contender beat next out winner Code West (also Baffert) Sept 29 and he ran faster than FrontRunner hero and stablemate Power Broker. He might flee the rail and forget to stop under Martin Garcia, and he rates higher if early speed is strong.

#4 Shanghai Bobby has done everything right so far. He started his career in April and his seasoning edge should start to evaporate in the near future. He has to ship across country without lasix and go two turns for the first time at underlaid odds. He deserves the 2yo title if he wins this.

#7 Capo Bastone finished a better than appears 3rd over a speed friendly surface last time. He rates a longshot look underneath if he gets pace help over a fair surface.

WAGERS:

#8 to win

Exacta 8/1-9

Exacta 1-9/8

Trifecta 1-4-8-9/1-4-8-9/7

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: