Coolmore Lexington 2012 Preview: Holiday Promise on upswing

This is the final chance to earn Kentucky Derby 2012 graded cash and morning line favorite Castaway can make the gate on the first Saturday in May with a win in the Grade 3 Coolmore Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday.

Castaway

Castaway can make the Derby cut with a win in Saturday's G3 Lexington - photo by Eclipse Sportswire

#7 Castaway (3-1) had his goose cooked on the front end in the G3 Sunland Derby. The Baffert trainee captured the slower division of the G3 Southwest before that and landed the place in his synthetic bow at Del Mar last summer. He won’t offer much value and could be in trouble if pressured early.

#6 Holiday Promise (6-1) had the light bulb turned on after adding blinkers Feb 20. He exits a fine place finish in the G3 Spiral and is working well at Keeneland. He has enough positional speed to keep the leaders in his sights and should offer a hint of value for Alvarado/Pletcher.

#11 Gold Megillah (10-1) finished 3rd in Turfway’s Rushaway last out and the top two came back to run well. The Graham Motion trainee needs to work out a trip from the outside post under Johnny V.

#10 News Pending (5-1) put his name on the map following a place finish behind Union Rags in the G2 Fountain of Youth. He never got involved in the paceless G1 Florida Derby but has some tactical ability and would not be the first turf horse to handle Polytrack.

#8 Hammers Terror (30-1) rates a longshot look. He ran well in both Polytrack starts last year and showed some ability at Fair Grounds this season. A tactical trip under Albarado is anticipated.

#1 Morgan’s Guerrilla (6-1) was last seen landing the place from post 12 in the G3 Illinois Derby on April 7. The early-pressing type should save all the ground under Leparoux and still has a shot to make the Derby field with a win.

#2 Summer Front (9-2) nabbed all three of his turf starts last year for Clement. The $475k purchase is firing Payson bullets for this and shows up in an ambitious spot off the shelf.

#3 Johannesbourbon (8-1) easily captured his Turfway sprint bow and the distant runner-up came back to tally. He stretches out and looms a pace factor at the very least in this salty spot.

#5 Golden Ticket (6-1) rallied for the place in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. He raced evenly in both local sprints and will try to get involved late.

#4 Skyring (30-1) stumbled at the start, raced wide, and split the field at 45-1 in the Illinois Derby. He will probably stalk the pace under Court with a clean beginning.

#9 All Squared Away (50-1) made a wide move before flattening out in the Spiral. Wesley Ward has him now and he excels with new additions to his barn. This one could end up being a pace casualty.

The Plays:

$16 to win #6

$4 Exacta Box 6-11 ($8)

$4 Exacta 6-11/8-10 ($16)

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