Thanks to everyone for purchasing my 2013 Breeders’ Cup full card analysis. Saturday was another profitable day. Saturday’s full card is posted below, along with highlights. I will be doing BC full cards next year again, along with 2014 Triple Crown, but Fair Grounds analysis is up next.
Upcoming Full Card Schedule:
Fair Grounds Saturdays (Nov. 23, 30 – Dec. 7, 14, 21, 28 – Jan. 4, 11,18, 25 – Feb. 1, 8, 15, 22 – March 1, 8, 15, 22, 29)
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Breeders’ Cup Saturday Full Card Highlights:
SA 1 Richies Party Girl/Toowindytohaulrocks Exacta ($26.60)
SA 3 Pontchatrain (best bet #1, $6.60)
SA 5 BC F&M Turf – Dank/Romantica Exacta (best bet #3, $11.60)
Double (races 5-6, $19.40)
Pick 3 (races 5-7, $49.60)
SA 8 BC Juvenile - New Year’s Day ($23), Exacta w/Havana ($53.90)
Double (races 7-8, $116.00)
Pick 3 (6-8, $278.30)
SA 10 BC Sprint – Secret Circle ($7.00)
Double (races 10-11, $12.60)
SA 12 BC Classic – Mucho Macho Man ($10.00)
Double (races 11-12, $19.20)
Pick 3 (races 10-12, $38.80)
Breeders’ Cup Saturday full card analysis from Santa Anita (11-2-13)
By Jarrod Horak (horseracingnation.com, pick6blog.com)
Weather: Partly cloudy. High 82.
Best Bets (races 3, 4, 5, 7, 9)
SA 1 (Juvenile Turf Sprint, 6.5T) #9 TOOWINDYTOHAULROCKS (5-1) graduated down the dip and early-pressing types from outer posts perform well at this trip. #8 Love in the Desert (2-1) is an overseas transplant now trainer by Callaghan. She was competitive in all four turf sprints and Bejarano takes the call. #2 Richies Party Girl (5-2) graduated in a Belmont turf sprint and competed in turf routes in his last pair. Early-pressing turn backs do well down the dip. THE PLAYS: #9 to win, Exacta 9/2-8, Exacta 2-8/9
SA 2 (Damascus Stakes) #1 FLASHBACK (2-5) found a great return spot. He runs well fresh and does not have to be fully cranked to beat these four rivals. #5 Anillo (8-1) will likely set the pace under aggressive pilot Maldonado. He is 1-for-1 at 7f and might have enough left in the tank to complete the exacta. THE PLAYS: Exacta 1-5
SA 3 (G3 Senator Ken Maddy, 6.5T) #13 PONTCHATRAIN (6-1) easily won the Unzip Me over the hillside course. I love outside early-pressing types down the dip and Stevens strings along. #12 Qiaona (6-1) finished strong in a downhill victory Oct. 12 and figures tough if able to duplicate that effort. #10 Unusual Hottie (8-1) was sharp earlier this year in turf routes at BHP and DMR. The gem of consistency can fire off the shelf and is a competent turf sprinter. #11 A Time to Love (15-1) was a fine 2nd down the dip Oct. 4 and can spice up the exotics. THE PLAYS: #13 to win, Exacta Box 12-13, Exacta 12-13/10-11
SA 4 (G1 BC Juvenile Fillies) – Horse comments and wagering strategies below.
Post Time – 3:05pm eastern
#4 SECRET CMPASS (6-1) – Wore down She’s a Tiger in the local G1 Chandelier and is reportedly training great for this.
#7 Untapable (5-1) – Won both starts under the Twin Spires including G2 Pocahontas. She is also training forwardly.
#1 Artemis Agrotera (3-1) – Won both NY starts including G1 Frizette but was very fortunate when Sweet Reason blew the break last time. Inside speed always dangerous at Santa Anita.
#9 Sweet Reason (5-2) – Skipped over the Saratoga slop in first two outings including big late running score in G1 Spinaway. Clearly second best after bad start in G1 Frizette and can tag these but needs a clean trip on a fair surface.
#6 Concave (15-1) – Colonel John’s daughter lost for first time in G1 Del Mar Debutante but was not disgraced in rallying show finish. First dirt and two turn start.
#10 She’s a Tiger (6-1) – Is fast and game but needs to distribute her energy better. She is working well for this but looks like a sprinter at this stage.
#2 Rosalind (8-1) – Versatile filly handles dirt, synthetic, and turf. Her late run could spice up the exotics.
#8 Scandalous Act (8-1) – Queen of Calder must prove that she can run the same race away from her home venue.
#3 Designer Legs (30-1) – Failed to fire in G1 Alcibiades and G1 Spinaway. Her previous fast dirt sprint form was strong.
#5 Ria Antonia (30-1) – Lone win in Woodbine sprint. Non-threatening 5th in G1 Frizette.
Exacta: 4/1-7-9, 1-7-9/4
Superfecta: 4/1-7/1-7/ALL, 4/1-7/ALL/1-7, 4/ALL/1-7/1-7
SA 5 (G1 BC F&M Turf) – Horse comments and wagering strategies below.
Post Time – 3:43pm eastern
#2 ROMANTICA (6-1) – Classy Juddmonte filly loves firm turf and 10f.
#1 Dank (5-2) – Smashing G1 Beverly D winner is a fresh, classy contender.
#3 Tiz Flirtatious (7-2) – Consistent CA-bred filly is in career form.
#6 Marketing Mix (7-2) – Can compete with the best when on her game. 2nd in this event last year and will get first run under Stevens.
#5 Lady of Shamrock (20-1) – Failed to match her stellar 3yo campaign this year. She can still finish late and grab a piece on her best day.
#7 Laughing (8-1) – In career form with four graded wins from as many tries this year.
#9 Qushchi (20-1) – Marathon specialist will run out of ground in this spot.
#4 Alterite (10-1) – 3yo filly just missed in Keeneland’s QEII. Probably not good enough to beat these at this stage.
#10 Kitten’s Dumplings (10-1) – QEII winner meets too many classy older rivals.
#8 Emollient (12-1) – G1 winner on synthetic and turf really moves up on Keeneland’s Polytrack.
WIN – #2
Exacta – 2/1-3, 1-3/2
Trifecta – 2/3/ALL, 2/ALL/3
Superfecta – 2/1-3/1-3/ALL, 2/1-3/ALL/1-3, 2/ALL/1-3/1-3
SA 6 (G1 BC F&M Sprint) – Horse comments and wagering strategies below.
Post Time – 4:21pm eastern
#12 SWEET LULU (8-1) – Close Hatches was the first filly to finish in front of her, and that was a Grade I route. She is 3-for-3 sprinting and early-pressing types from outer posts can be dangerous in extended sprints. Training forwardly.
#2 Book Review (5-1) – Loves seven panels and is a classy, sharp, fresh, and dangerous finisher for Bejarano/Baffert.
#5 Teddy’s Promise (6-1) – Brilliant at times and exits smart local win. Loves this course but cannot always be trusted to deliver a top effort. She was 8th in this event last year but is in better form this time.
#11 Groupie Doll (5-2) – Easily won this last year but her three 2013 numbers (2 losses) are not close to that level. Can she rediscover her greatness?
#4 Dance Card (8-1) – Did she get enough out of distant show finish in G2 Gallant Bloom to be competitive here? Obviously talented but might want more ground.
#6 Ismene (20-1) – The one to catch and enters in decent form but has dropped six straight. 2-for-2 on fast dirt and can hang around for a share.
#8 Dance to Bristol (5-1) – Had her 7-race win streak snapped at Belmont last time. She likes 7f and should sit decent stalking trip.
#9 Judy the Beauty (6-1) is a different filly at Keeneland and I doubt that she can duplicate her G2 TCA synthetic win on this track.
#7 Summer Applause (15-1) – 1-for-1 at 7f but has been on a steady route diet and probably won’t be able to keep pace with these.
#3 Starship Truffles (15-1) – She can be very good at times but is inconsistent. Likes connections and she would be a bigger threat in Florida.
#10 Great Hot (20-1) – Was 9th at 50-1 in this last year after finishing 2nd in LA Woman. She was 2nd in that race last time and looks like 50-1 again.
#1 Renee’s Titan (30-1) – Post 1 no bargain at 7f and her win against Beholder earlier this year was a fluke.
Exacta: Box 2-12, 2-12/5-6
Superfecta: 12/2-6/2-6/ALL, 12/2-6/ALL/2-6, 12/ALL/2-6/2-6
SA 7 (G1 BC Turf Sprint) – Horse comments and wagering strategies below.
Post Time – 5:05pm eastern
#14 UNBRIDLED’S NOTE (8-1) – Tough beat as my top in this last year. Ran well off the shelf in local prep for this and he runs great from outer posts at this trip.
#4 Reneesgotzip (5-1) – Fastest filly in the land was 3rd in 2012 BC Sprint. She is razor sharp and might not look back this year.
#12 Mizdiection (4-1) – Defending champ won this off the shelf last year and is 5-for-5 down the dip. Smith has options with the versatile sort.
#3 Chips All In (5-1) – Likes downhill course but wish he drew outer post.
#6 Boat Trip (8-1) – Packs a big late kick in turf sprints and just missed by a nose in G3 Eddie D.
#5 Caracortado (8-1) – Solitary start since Jan. 2012 was an encouraging one. Would be a great story if the comeback kid captured this.
#11 Spring to the Sky (30-1) – Early-pressing type in decent form and can hang around for a small share.
#2 Rock Me Baby (30-1) – Troubled 7th in local prep for this. Have to believe that he will find trouble again from inner post.
#13 Dimension (12-1) – Inconsistent 5yo set the pace in lone 2013 win and he won’t get the early lead in this spot.
#10 Havelock (10-1) – Keeneland 5.5f specialist won’t run these down.
#1 Jeranimo (12-1) – Tough draw for deep closer. Turf router will pass tired foes but not enough to make an impact.
#7 Tightend Touchdown (12-1) – Adds speed but probably won’t be able to match strides with Reneesgotzip.
#9 Capo Bastone (8-1) – Tough spot to make turf bow. Will pass tired rivals.
#8 Handsome Mike (30-1) – Likes to get involved early but is not nearly fleet enough to keep up with these at 6.5f.
Exacta: 14/4-12, 4-12/14
Superfecta: 14/4-12/4-12/ALL, 14/4-12/ALL/4-12, 14/ALL/4-12/4-12
SA 8 (G1 BC Juvenile) – Horse comments and wagering strategies below.
Post Time – 5:43pm eastern
#4 NEW YEAR’S DAY (8-1) – Beat next out G1 FrontRunner hero Bond Holder at Del Mar. Like his pedigree and Baffert is known for striking with his longer priced entrant.
#13 Havana (5-2) – G1 Champagne hero has talent to overcome outside draw. He is the fastest horse in here and looks better than these on paper.
#2 Dance With Fate (8-1) – Nice distance progression and in fine form. Can definitely be used underneath, especially after favorable draw.
#3 Mexicoma (12-1) – Freaked in Delaware maiden win for Team Valor, and runner-up came back to score. Intriguing price play despite the fact that he reportedly has the stride of a turf horse.
#6 Tap It Rich (6-1) – Lost a ton of ground but still easily won first time out around two turns here Oct 12. Is he good enough to overcome inexperience? Reportedly not training great.
#5 Bond Holder (8-1) – He improved with added ground, just like his breeding suggested. Look for him late but I am tabbing underneath.
#11 Medal Count (20-1) – Can be used in exotics. Looked great in dirt debut and had traffic woes in G3 Bourbon.
#12 Diamond Bachelor (12-1) – Showed speed in all three turf routes (2 wins, 1 2nd). Decent enough dirt breeding but Havana is the better early runner.
#14 Strong Mandate (6-1) – Flopped in Champagne and drew a tough post in here. Rosario might have no choice but to send.
#10 We Miss Artie (8-1) – G1 Breeders’ Futurity looks weak and he was distant 2nd in lone dirt try.
#1 Smarty’s Echo (20-1) – Finished 2nd in slow renewal of G1 Breeders’ Futurity.
#7 Cleburne (12-1) – 2-for-2 but G3 Iroquois number wasn’t much.
#8 Conquest Titan (30-1) – Had some trouble in Breeders’ Futurity. Faded in lone dirt try.
#9 Rum Point (30-1) – 9th in Del Mar Futurity and 4th in Breeders’ Futurity.
Exacta: Box 4-13, 4-13/2-3
Trifecta: 13/2/ALL, 13/ALL/2
SA 9 (G1 BC Turf) – Horse comments and wagering strategies below.
Post Time – 6:22pm eastern
#7 THE FUGUE (3-1) – Rough trip 3rd as my top in 2012 F&M Turf. Exits back-to-back Group 1 wins and should beat these with smooth sailing.
#9 Indy Point (9-2) – Mandella always dangerous in BC races at SA. G2 John Henry winner right there every time except G1 Arlington Million fiasco.
#10 Big Blue Kitten (6-1) – One of 2 contenders for Chad Brown. Late run can net a share but The Fugue is in a different class.
#12 Real Solution (8-1) – The higher priced of the Brown runners. He is usually in the mix and is a must use in exotics.
#6 Point of Entry (4-1) – Give connections credit for getting him ready after injury. He is very talented but cannot see him beating The Fugue off the shelf.
#4 Little Mike (6-1) – Have never been on his bandwagon. Won this last year and exits G1 Turf Classic tally at Belmont, stalking the pace both times. Key to success is his ability to rate.
#11 Magician (8-1) – Flopped in Group 1 when last seen in June. He has talent but have never been this far and must reverse form off the shelf.
#1 Vagabond Shoes (15-1) – Has turned into useful turf marathon runner for Sadler. An underneath finish is possible.
#3 Twilight Eclipse (20-1) – Should love the firm SA turf. A cut below the best but I will use in Tri/Supers.
#2 Teaks North (30-1) – Was a decent horse at one time but was claimed at the Spa and was 5th in local prep for this.
#6 Tale of a Champion (30-1) – Flopped in G2 John Henry. Needs easier company and 10f.
#5 Skyring (30-1) – Stole G2 Dixie earlier this year but rarely threatens this type. He will probably set the pace.
Trifecta: 7/9/ALL, 7/ALL/9
SA 10 (G1 BC Sprint) Horse comments and wagering strategies below.
Post Time – 7:01pm eastern
#9 SECRET CIRCLE (4-1) – Looked great in his allowance return and is 4-for-4 sprinting. He can rate and is a major player if able to avoid a bounce, and his recent works are encouraging.
#7 Private Zone (3-1) – Takes pace pressure and keeps on fighting. Like his post and he can make it three straight.
#1 Justin Phillip (4-1) – Rallying 5th in 2012 BC Sprint. Having a productive season but inside post is a negative. Minor award not impossible.
#6 Bahamian Squall (10-1) – Wide 5th in G1 Vosburgh. He can close ground and is an interesting exotics threat.
#5 Sum of the Parts (12-1) – Followed up G3 Phoenix win with a 4th in this event last year. Comes in off G3 Phoenix win again.
#4 Gentlemen’s Bet (8-1) – Early-pressing type got bumped at the start in G3 Phoenix. He usually fires in fast track dirt sprints.
#10 Wine Police (30-1) – A win would shock but he is versatile and can pass tired foes. Can be used underneath.
#4 Majestic Stride (20-1) – Lightly raced and has some talent but this is a very tough spot for a speed horse.
#8 Fast Bullet (6-1) – Last year’s 6th place Sprint finisher is brilliant at times. Hard to back after G1 Forego flop in the Saratoga slop.
#2 The Lumber Guy (12-1) – 2012 BC Sprint runner-up not the same horse since.
#11 Trinniberg (8-1) – Won this at 13-1 last year. Went to Dubai in March and didn’t do much there or here since. Local effort on 10-5 was terrible.
#12 Laugh Track (20-1) – Always fires on synthetic/turf but lone dirt start was a bust. He can pass horses.
Win – #9
Exacta – Box 7-9
Trifecta – 7-9/1-6-7-9/1-4-5-6-7-10
SA 11 (G1 BC Mile) Horse comments and wagering strategies below.
Post Time – 7:40pm eastern
#5 OLYMPIC GLORY (4-1) – Consistent overseas G1 winner enjoyed blinkers last time. He handles any ground and might be this good.
#8 Wise Dan (1-1) – Defending champ has not lost a turf race in quite some time. He will stalk, pounce, and try to hold off late runners.
#7 He Be Fire N Ice (15-1) – Has turned into a decent flat mile turf runner for Sadler. The patient sort can spice up the exotics.
#10 Za Approval (15-1) – Nice win in G3 Knickerbocker and was 2nd to Wise Dan before that. Gets pace to chase and can land a share.
#1 No Jet Lag (8-1) – Won both U.S. flat mile turf starts including local prep for this. Well-posted and might be good enough for a share.
#4 Obviously (10-1) – Did not get early lead and disappointed in local prep for this. Connections say he will be in front this time and he was 3rd in 2012 BC Mile.
#2 Silentio (20-1) – Consistent, versatile colt runs well fresh.
#3 Silver Max (5-1) – Upset Wise Dan on Polytrack last time. He likes to set the pace but that spot will be occupied by Obviously.
#6 Bright Thought (20-1) – He is fast/talented but this is a tough return spot (off 7+ months).
#9 Cristoforo Columbo (15-1) – Both overseas wins at 6f and this is his third start since Oct. 4.
Win – #5
Exacta – Box 5-8
Superfecta 5/7-8/7-8/ALL, 5/7-8/ALL/7-8, 5/ALL/7-8/7-8
SA 12 (G1 BC Classic) – Horse comments and wagering strategies below.
Post Time – 8:35pm eastern
#6 MUCHO MACHO MAN (5-1) – 2012 BC Classic runner-up easily won the local prep for this, the G1 Awesome Again. He’s a fresh, dangerous stalker under hot rider Stevens.
#9 Game On Dude (8-5) – Last year’s beaten Classic favorite has never been better, winning all five starts this year. He’s reportedly training super.
#11 Ron the Greek (8-1) – Surprisingly ran away with G1 JCGC. Won G1 Big ‘Cap here in 2012 and can rally for at least a share on his best day.
#10 Will Take Charge (12-1) – Blinkers off did the trick in Jim Dandy (2nd), Travers (1st), and PA Derby (1st). Improving 3YO rates a look.
#7 Fort Larned (6-1) – Defending BC Classic champ won his final prep for this and seems to be a need-to-lead type this year. Training aggressively with final three works in nine days.
#5 Declaration of War (10-1) – Classy overseas runner liked this trip on overseas synthetic and turf footing. KY-bred could handle dirt based on pedigree (War Front – Gone West).
#8 Palace Malice (10-1) – Distant 2nd to Ron the Greek in JCGC. G1 Belmont Stakes hero owns fine tactical speed but still must prove himself against older.
#12 Flat Out (12-1) – 3rd in this event last year. Belmont Park specialist is not as sharp this year, coming off a distant show finish in the JCGC.
#2 Paynter (12-1) – Ambitious placement for G1 Awesome Again runner-up. Dirt Mile might have been a better spot for the 2012 Haskell hero and Belmont Stakes runner-up.
#1 Last Gunfighter (20-1) – Grade 3 type couldn’t hang with the big boys in the JCGC.
#4 Moreno (15-1) – Much improved since adding blinkers in June. Early runner has never faced quality speed horses like Fort Larned and Game On Dude.
#3 Planteur (20-1) – Finished 3rd in Dubai World Cup in March. Bred in Ireland and all races on synthetic (3 starts) and turf (20 starts).
Exacta: Box 6-9, 6-9/5-11
Superfecta: 6/9-11/9-11/ALL, 6/9-11/ALL/9-11, 6/ALL/9-11/9-11
Double/Pick 3/Pick 4/Pick 5 contenders – in order of preference