Posts Tagged ‘Fountain of Youth Stakes 2012’

Kentucky Derby 2012 Contenders – Union Rags, El Padrino score

A pair of Kentucky Derby 2012 graded route preps were run last weekend and Union Rags made a big splash in his sophomore debut in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on Sunday.

Union Rags

Union Rags runs away with FOY - photo by Eclipse Sportswire

The quality/depth of the FOY took a big hit with the defection of Algorithms and Union Rags rolled past his overmatched rivals in a facile triumph. He has been my top ranked Derby contender since November 2011 and obviously holds on to that spot.

Discreet Dancer was the post time favorite and controlling speed but recently spiked a temperature, had suspect route breeding, and weakened to 3rd for Todd Pletcher.

In New Orleans on Saturday, El Padrino got his nose down on the line to nip a stubborn Mark Valeski in the G2 Risen Star. I have always like the Pletcher trainee and even more so after his game victory on Feb 25. He has strong classic breeding, fine tactical speed, a winning spirit, and has shown the ability to handle any footing.

Click on the names of each horse below to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.

Jarrod Horak’s Top Ten Kentucky Derby 2012 Contenders

1. Union Rags (Dixie Union) – Remains at the top of the heap following a strong return tally in the G2 Fountain of Youth (95 BSF). The March 31 Florida Derby is next on the docket. Graded Earnings: $1,070,000  

2. Alpha (Bernardini) – Went back-to-back at the Big A in Count Fleet and Withers (90 BSF) and was on good behavior in the gate Feb 4. Breezed 4f in :49.71 (30/46) at Palm Meadows on Feb 25. Look for him in March 31 Florida Derby or April 7 Wood Memorial. Graded Earnings: $180,000  

El Padrino

El Padrino wins Risen Star - photo by Eclipse Sportswire

3. El Padrino (Pulpit) – Gamely captured G2 Risen Star (98 BSF) at Fair Grounds on Feb 25. He handles any footing and goes next in Florida Derby or April 1 Louisiana Derby. Graded Earnings: $200,000  

4. Gemologist (Tiznow) – Sharp G2 Ky Jockey Club (85 BSF) victory to end juvenile campaign for WinStar Farm/Todd Pletcher. He fired a 5f bullet in 1:00.92 (1/29) at Palm Meadows on Feb 26. Might begin 3yo season in Oaklawn’s G2 Rebel on March 17. Graded Earnings: $103,855  

5. Creative Cause (Giant’s Causeway) – BC Juvenile show finisher occupied that same spot in G2 San Vicente on Feb 19. He worked 6f in 1:11.80 (1/1) at Hollywood Park on Feb 28 and goes next in G2 San Felipe (March 10) or G2 Rebel.  Graded Earnings: $506,000  

6. Out of Bounds (Discreet Cat) – Handled two turns just fine in G3 Sham Stakes (99 BSF). The G2 San Felipe at SA is next. Worked 7f in 1:25.60 (1/3) at Hollywood Park on Feb 27. Graded Earnings: $60,000

7. Secret Circle (Eddington) – Bob Baffert’s fleet colt passed his second route test in G3 Southwest (102 BSF) at Oaklawn on Feb 20. Not sure how much farther he wants to go but he is fast and deserves another route shot. Graded Earnings: $170,000  

8. Take Charge Indy (A. P. Indy) – BC Juvenile 5th place finisher was clearly second best to El Padrino at Gulfstream on Jan 29. Breezed 5f in 1:01.29 (5/29) at Palm Meadows on Feb 26. The Tampa Bay Derby might be next. Graded Earnings: $98,400

9. Hansen (Tapit) – BC Juvenile hero and 2YO champ set the pace and held the place in Holy Bull return. He needs to relax on the lead if he expects to make a dent if future Derby graded route preps. Graded Earnings: $1,160,000

10. Fed Biz (Giant’s Causeway) – Back-to-back flat mile wins at Santa Anita. Worked 6f in 1:13.40 (3/12) on Feb 29 and makes his graded stakes debut for Baffert in San Felipe.

Exciting Prospects

Castaway (Street Sense) – Baffert trainee won slower division of Southwest (92 BSF) in his first start against winners. Graded Earnings – $150,000

Currency Swap (High Cotton) – G1 Hopeful hero has recovered from ankle surgery and breezed 5f in 1:01.80 (14/22) at Gulfstream Park on Feb 25. Graded Earnings: $150,000

Ever So Lucky (Indian Charlie) – Currently fighting a foot bruise. Sheppard still hopes to make Gulfstream’s G2 Swale at seven panels on March 10. Graded Earnings: $33,502

Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen) – Almost upset El Padrino in his G2 Risen Star route/stakes bow. Look for Larry Jones trainee in Louisiana Derby. Graded Earnings: $60,000

Midnight Transfer (Hard Spun) – Made it back-to-back sprint wins at Santa Anita in San Pedro. He worked 7f in 1:24.80 (1/2) at Santa Anita and will try two turns and graded company in San Felipe.

Souper Speedy (Indian Charlie) – Set the pace and held the place in G2 Remsen. Debuted a 7f winner in the mud prior to that and is a ½ to Brilliant Speed. Breezed 5f in 1:03.22 (4/7) at Palm Meadows on Feb 14. Graded Earnings: $40,000

Injured Reserve

Algorithms horse

Algorithms is off the Kentucky Derby trail - photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Algorithms – Missed scheduled Fountain of Youth appearance with bone split injury. He will have surgery soon and is off the Triple Crown trail.

B Shanny (Street Cry) – Ran twice in NY last summer including good looking maiden win over El Padrino at Saratoga Aug 20. Bone chip has him on the sidelines.

Consortium (Bernardini) – Ankle chip has knocked him out of the Gotham and off the Derby trail. He is expected to return later this year.

Fire On Ice (Unbridled’s Song) – Suffered a non-displaced condylar fracture in his left hind leg. He is expected to return later this year.

Junebugred (Corinthian) – Smarty Jones Stakes hero is off the Derby trail with a bone chip in his ankle.

O’Prado Again (El Prado) – G2 Remsen hero suffered a condylar fracture of his right front leg on Jan 9 and is off the Triple Crown trail. He is expected to return later this year.

Stephanoatsee (A.P. Indy) – Injured pastern bone has knocked the Graham Motion trainee off the Derby trail. He will go under the knife on Jan 25 and is expected to miss two months.

Timely Tally (Mr. Greeley) – From Ian Wilkes in a recent DRF article – “Timely Tally, on the other hand, will be done for a while. He has a tendon issue. It’s not career-threatening, but I’m trying to work out now how much time I’ll have to give him.”

Grading the 2012 Kentucky Derby Preps: Union Rags Wins Fountain of Youth

Union Rags was the Kentucky Derby 2012 favorite going into the Fountain of Youth Stakes and proved his mettle with a facile score at Gulfstream Park under Julien Leparoux on Sunday.

G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes (2-26-12): 95 BSF (Union Rags)

Union Rags horse

Derby favorite Union Rags wins Fountain of Youth - photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Union Rags did not have to win the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He already had plenty of Derby graded earnings and was using his sophomore debut as a prep for the Florida Derby. It was nice to see a good prospect score despite not being fully cranked. The Michael Matz runner is the solid Derby favorite at this stage but let’s not get carried away with Triple Crown talk. His main rival and morning line favorite Algorithms scratched due to a bone splint injury and there was not much depth to the FOY field. Discreet Dancer was the controlling speed but spiked a fever earlier in the month and figured to have distance limitations.

Union Rags has been my top ranked Derby hopeful since November 2011 and showed plenty of promise at the Gulf on Sunday but there is still a long way to go and we will learn more when he faces better rivals at nine furlongs in the Florida Derby on March 31.

Dale Romans always seems to find a way to have a Triple Crown trail player and News Pending finished a fine 2nd in the FOY. Kent Desormeaux sensed the slow splits and made a smart early move aboard the 27.50-1 longshot. He was not match for Union Rags but ended up a clear second.

Discreet Dancer set the pace and held the show in a disappointing effort as the favorite. He is best around one turn.

Fountain of Youth Grade: B

Fountain of Youth Stakes 2012 Preview: Pletcher vs. Union Rags

The South Florida sophomores take a serious step on the road to Kentucky Derby 2012 at Gulfstream Park in Sunday’s Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes and Union Rags makes his much anticipated seasonal debut.

Union Rags

Union Rags is back in action at the Gulf on Sunday - photo by Eclipse Sportswire

#7 Union Rags was the most accomplished juvenile in the land despite missing the G1 BC Juvenile by a head. He won a pair of graded events in 2011 including a powerful win over Alpha in the G1 Champagne at Belmont Park in October. The talented son of Dixie Union should have caught Hansen under the Twin Spires but he failed to keep a straight course in the stretch. He is in great shape on the Derby graded earnings list and does not have to win this prep for the Florida Derby.

#2 Algorithms (8-5) tries to keep his perfect record intact for Todd Pletcher. This is an important race for him, not from a graded earnings standpoint, but he must prove that he can excel around two turns. He sat perfect outside tactical trips in both local wins against Gotham hopefuls Consortium and Hansen. Early-pressing types from inner posts dominate local 8.5 furlong events and the undefeated son of Bernardini should not have any excuses.

#5 Discreet Dancer (3-1) easily captured both local sprint starts and gets a class/distance test today. He spiked a temperature and missed a planned work on Feb 6 but drilled smartly at Palm Meadows on Feb 13 and Feb 20. He figures to set sail for the lead and will probably offer more value than Algorithms and Union Rags.

#3 Fort Loudon (20-1) lands an advantageous inner post and has enough positional speed to work out a forwardly placed journey at square odds. The Calder specialist got a spin over the local main in needed Holy Bull effort in the slop and can go better today.

#4 Casual Trick (6-1) looked great in his Churchill sprint maiden win last November and began his 3-year-old campaign with a fine 2nd in the Gulfstream Park Derby on Jan 1. He threw in a clunker against El Padrino last time but may not have cared for the wet footing. His last was too bad to believe and the well bred Zito runner could rebound in a big way.

#1 Neck ‘N Neck (15-1) dons the hood and lands the cozy rail. He played bridesmaid to Discreet Dancer here Jan 7 and exits a slow renewal of the G3 Sam Davis.

#6 News Pending (20-1) is slowly improving for Dale Romans. He showed a nice late kick in a late turf route Feb 5 and might be better on that footing.

#8 Csaba (20-1) won twice in the Calder slop last year and is probably doing a rain dance. He does not have the numbers to compete here.

Here is HorseRacingNation.com handicapper Mike Shutty’s video analysis of the Fountain of Youth Stakes. My FOY wagering strategies can be found at the bottom of this post.

Jarrod Horak’s Fountain of Youth Plays:

$8 to win #3

.50 cent Trifecta 3-4/2-3-4/1-2-3-4-5-7 ($8)

.50 cent Trifecta 2-4-5-7/3/ALL ($12)

.50 cent Trifecta 2-4-5-7/ALL/3 ($12)

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