Risen Star Stakes 2012 Preview: El Padrino deserving favorite

The road to Kentucky Derby 2012 heats up in New Orleans on Saturday with the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes and El Padrino looms large for trainer Todd Pletcher.

#7 EL PADRINO (2-1) is the deserving favorite following a visually impressive and fast Optional Claiming route tally at Gulfstream Jan 29. He owns fine positional speed and should win this with anything resembling his last. Is he better on wet ground?

#3 Afford (8-1) might be worth a gamble in here. He exits a decent Fair Grounds route tally in the Optional Claiming ranks and figured to relish two turns with Street Sense on top and Unbridled on the bottom of his pedigree. He won despite a wide trip last time and could end up saving ground from the cozy rail today.

The G3 Lecomte came back with a low number so I will toss all six entrants (#1 Mr. Bowling, #2 Adena’s Chance, #2b Hero of Order, #5 Z Dager, #6 Ted’s Folly, #8 Shared Property)  that ran in that below par local prep.

I am a bit intrigued by #1a Mark Valeski (4-1) but he will offer no value due to coupling with Lecomte hero #1 Mr. Bowling. Mark Valeski is on the upswing and tries a route of ground for the first time. Leading rider Rosie Napravnik ends up riding this one for trainer Larry Jones.

#4 Optimizer (6-1) appears best on turf/synthetic for trainer Wayne Lukas. 

#9 Tizanexpense (10-1) exits back-to-back local route (off the turf) tallies against softer company. He drew the outside post and owns ordinary numbers.

THE PLAYS:

$10 to win #3

$18 Exacta 7-3

$5 exacta 3-7

$1 Trifecta 7/ALL/3 ($7)

Lecomte Stakes 2012 Preview: Will Hammers Terror scare up a win?

The road to Kentucky Derby 2012 gets underway on Saturday at Fair Grounds with their first graded route for the 3-year-old set, the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes. The one mile and seventy yard affair has attracted a baker’s dozen and Hammers Terror figures to offer value at 6-1 on the line.

#8 HAMMERS TERROR (6-1) has earned quality Final Time Ratings in all three starts and I like his tactical burst away speed. He is a nose away from a perfect 3-for-3 record.

#4 Mr. Bowling (8-1) was making nice progress from a numbers standpoint prior to finishing a flat 3^rd as the beaten favorite when last seen in the flat mile G3 Iroquois at Churchill in November. He earned his best Final Time Rating around two turns and could be poised to fire a fresh shot for Larry Jones.

#3 Ted’s Folly (10-1) has rattled off six straight and is a nice success story. He won the Springboard Mile last time and runner-up Reckless Jerry just missed in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn on Jan 16 while show finisher Pee H Dee came back to win an allowance race at Oaklawn on the same day.

{Keep up with all of the Kentucky Derby 2012 trail workouts}

#10 Capetown Devil (6-1) is 3-for-3 and has earned a Stakes shot after working his way from Maiden Claiming to Starter Allowance to Optional Claiming. The improving gelding projects a tactical trip.

#11 Shared Property (4-1) flashed ability as a juvenile for Amoss but he is stuck out in post 13 and has not raced in more than three months.

Can Exfactor get two turns in Lecomte? - photo by Eclipse Sportswire

#5 Exfactor (5-1) was all out to win by a nose in his dirt sprint return. He stretches out 2^nd off the shelf and is a bounce candidate.

#6 Seven Lively Sins (9-2) exits a weak renewal of the G3 Delta Jackpot. He did beat Mr. Bowling in the Iroquois and might be best around one turn. The Al Stall Jr. trainee looms a pace factor at the very least.

#2 Dan And Shelia (6-1) captured his flat mile bow at Gulfstream for Pletcher. The $150,000 son of More Than Ready tries two turns in his first start against winners and gives up a seasoning edge in this spot.

#2b Z Dager (6-1) exits a course/distance maiden win in the slop for Asmussen. This is an ambitious placement for the recent graduate.

#1 Adena’s Chance (20-1) and #1a Hero of Order (20-1) both seem up against it, along with #7 Alexander Thegreat (30-1) and #9 Chalybeate Springs (20-1).

THE PLAYS:

$12 to win #8

$1 Trifecta 3-4-8/3-4-8/3-4-8-10-11 ($18)