Author Archive

Jim Dandy Stakes 2014 Video: Tonalist vs. Wicked Strong

My video race of the week for Saturday, July 26 is the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes from Saratoga. It is carded as the 10th race for 3-year-olds traveling a mile and an eighth on the main track (Post Time- 6:01pm ET).

Morning line favorite Tonalist makes his first start since spoiling California Chrome’s Triple Crown bid in the Belmont Stakes on June 7. He is prepping for the Travers and figures to attend tepid fractions.

Wicked Strong finished 4th in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont. He won the G1 Wood Memorial at today’s 9f distance and will add blinkers.

Legend is lightly raced and has tactical speed in a race lacking early zip. He might find himself on the early lead at a price.

Kid Cruz has been very busy lately and figures to be hurt by the race shape. Ulanbator and Commanding Curve are closers as well.

Cousin Stephen ran last in Friday’s Curlin Stakes and will scratch.

Click here to view today’s free Pick 6 & Late Pick 4 Tickets from Saratoga

SATURDAY’S DEL MAR FULL CARD (JULY 26) analysis now available to purchase for $10 at:

The Runaway Horse

Today’s Racing Digest

Diana Stakes 2014 video: Alterite back in action

My video race of the week for Saturday, July 19 is the Grade 1 Diana Stakes from Saratoga. It is carded as the 10th race for fillies and mares traveling a mile and an eighth on the inner turf course (Post Time- 5:46pm ET).

Morning line favorite Alterite makes her first start in 8+ months for Chad Brown. She ran well in each of her three U.S. outings last year and figures right there if she is ready to roll off a long layoff.

Somali Lemonade looms the one to catch at a distance beyond her best. Emollient should make her presence felt throughout but is not as sharp this year. Consistent early-pressing filly Discreet Marq is an interesting contender at 5-1.

Solid Appeal, Abaco, Strathnaver, Caroline Thomas, Stephanie’s Kitten, and Tannery are all patient runners in a wide open turf heat. Stephanie’s Kitten was a close-up 3rd in this event last year but has disappointed in a pair of 2014 outings. Maybe she can bounce back 3rd off the shelf.

Click here to view today’s free Pick 6 & Late Pick 4 Tickets from Saratoga

SATURDAY’S DEL MAR FULL CARD (JULY 19) analysis now available to purchase for $10 at:

The Runaway Horse

Today’s Racing Digest

Los Alamitos Derby Video: Will Shared Belief remain unbeaten?

My video race of the week for Saturday, July 5 is the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Derby. It is carded as the 8th race for 3-year-olds traveling a mile and an eighth on the main track (Post Time- 5:3opm PT).

Juvenile champ Shared Belief is the 4-5 morning line favorite. He easily captured all four lifetime starts and his lone outing in the last 6+ months was a very easy six furlong allowance score at Golden Gate against four rivals. Foot issues caused him to bypass the Triple Crown trail earlier this year. Is he fit enough to run nine furlongs against solid competition over a quirky dirt surface?

Candy Boy is fresh, fit (3 route races in 2014), and training well. He exits a miserable trip in the Kentucky Derby (my Derby pick) and should sit an outside stalk and pounce journey.

Eddie’s First from the rail and G3 Affirmed winner Can the Man (Baffert) are the early runners. G2 Woody Stephens runner-up Top Fortitude stretches out, and Shared Belief‘s uncoupled stablemate Tonito M will try to get involved late, along with Affirmed runner-up Friendswith K Mill.

Click here to view today’s Pick 6 and late Pick 4 tickets from Los Alamitos

Recapping last week’s video, I got home my suggested $5 Majestic Harbor-Clubhouse Ride exacta box, which returned $68.80 for a buck. Let’s bring home another video winner!

Click here to view today’s HRN video play of the day, the G2 Los Al Derby

 

Gold Cup at Santa Anita Video: Can anyone beat Game On Dude?

My video race of the week for Saturday, June 28 is the Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita. It is carded as the 8th race for 3-year-olds and up traveling a mile and a quarter on the main track (Post Time- 4:43pm PT).

Wily veteran Game On Dude will break from the rail as the 4-5 morning line favorite. The 7-year-old has captured half of his 32 lifetime starts but has dropped 4 of his last 5. He should face serious pace pressure from Fury Kapcori and might be vulnerable late if that scenario plays out. The latter is classy and likes Santa Anita but might not want to go ten furlongs.

Imperative upset Game On Dude in the Charles Town Classic. His positional speed should put him in a nice spot but he won’t be 26-1 this time.

Clubhouse Ride always seems to play second fiddle to The Dude. He defended his G2 Californian title May 31 and would appreciate some pace help.

Majestic Harbor exits a solid 3rd in the aforementioned Californian. He won the 12f Tokyo City before that so ten panels will not be an issue.

Salto Del Indio from Chile and Lideris from Peru round out the field.

Click here to view today’s Pick 6 carryover tickets at Pick 6 Blog

 

Summertime Oaks 2014 video: Can Delta Flower go two turns?

My video race of the week for Saturday, June 21 is the Grade s Summertime Oaks from Santa Anita Park. It is carded as the 8th race for 3-year-old fillies traveling a mile and a sixteenth on the main track.

Morning line favorite Delta Flower seeks a four-bagger but has never raced beyond seven furlongs. She moved to the Jerry Hollendorfer barn for her last start, a neck victory in the $75k Angel’s Flight at seven panels. The fleet daughter of A. P. Delta is the one to catch but might get leg weary late if the pace is too fast.

Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer also entered Fleet of Gold and Stop Smiling. The field also includes an uncoupled pair for Bob Baffert (Jojo Warrior, Front Range) and Eoin Harty (Live for Now, Arethusa). Wesley Ward’s La Mejor Fiesta rounds out the contestants.

Santa Anita Park free full card for Saturday, June 21 at The Runaway Horse

Today’s Santa Anita Pick 6 & Pick 4 Tickets at Pick 6 blog

 

Stephen Foster 2014 Video Analysis – Revolutionary vs. Departing

My video race of the week for Saturday, June 14 is the Grade 1 Stephen Foster from Churchill Downs.

Revolutionary, my 2013 Derby-Belmont top, is the 2-1 morning line favorite. He will try to get involved late but there is not a ton of pace in the paper race.

Will Take Charge is the 5-2 second choice. He started to show fatigue in his erratic Oaklawn Handicap stretch run and threw in a clunker last time in the Alysheba at Churchill Downs. I will try to beat him until he shows some oomph.

Departing, at 9-2 on the line, was my Preakness pick last year. He returned with a solid score under the Twin Spires and might be ready to rejoin the stakes ranks.

My Stephen Foster night 2014 full card is available to purchase for $10 at:

The Runaway Horse

Today’s Racing Digest

 

Triple Crown Remains Elusive Target

California Chrome failed in his bid to sweep the Triple Crown on Saturday, June 7 at Belmont Park. Not surprisingly, the twelve furlong journey jumped up and bit him.

Tonalist

Tonalist spoils California Chrome’s Triple Crown bid – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Tonalist, a fresh, lightly raced son of Tapit, caught Commissioner in the late stages to win by a head, with Medal Count landing the show. The winning BSF came back 100.

California Chrome finished in a dead-heat for 4th with Wood Memorial winner Wicked Strong. The Derby-Preakness hero never looked like a winner and will get a well-deserved rest before returning in September for a BC Classic prep.

Tonalist has set his sights on the Travers and may prep in the Jim Dandy. Both races will be run at Saratoga later this summer.

Commissioner came out of the Belmont with a bone chip and could return later this year.

Let’s check in on some former “Exceptional Eleven” Derby members and see what they are up to:

My Derby top Candy Boy skipped the Preakness-Belmont and goes next in the Los Alamitos Derby on July 5. He worked 4f in :48.20 at Santa Anita on June 9.

Candy Boy

Candy Boy targets the Los Al Derby – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Give No Quarter is back in training at Fair Hill for Graham Motion. The Sagamore Farm colorbearer most recently logged 5f in 1:02 on June 14.

Indianapolis returned to the Santa Anita worktab on June 12 (3f in :36.20).

Intense Holiday had to be put down after developing laminitis. Very sad ending.

Kendall’s Boy was last seen finishing 6th at OP on March 22. His steady worktab includes a 5f move in 1:01.20 at Churchill Downs on June 14.

Kristo failed to handle Santa Anita turf on May 18. He worked 5f in 1:00.60 on June 11.

Misconnect finished 4th in the Easy Goer Stakes on the Belmont undercard.

Noble Cornerstone finished 2nd in a Belmont Park Allowance race on May 18. He worked 4f in :47.91 on June 6 and was entered and subsequently scratched on June 14.

Schoolofhardrocks was visually impressive in an Optional Claiming turf win at Santa Anita on May 31. He appears ready for a turf stakes assignment and will probably make some noise at Del Mar this summer. He worked 5f in 1:00.40 on June 12.

Shared Belief captured his much anticipated Golden Gate comeback on May 26. He traveled 5f in 1:02.20 on June 10 and has options for his next outing, including the aforementioned Los Al Derby.

Tapiture runs next in the Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill Downs on Saturday night, June 14.

Vicar’s in Trouble has been in steady training since running last in the Ky Derby. He went 5f in 1:01.20 at Churchill Training on June 9.

Wildcat Red got beat up during his rough 18th in the Derby. The Haskell is his summer goal and he worked 3f in :36.80 at Gulfstream Park on June 14.

 

 

Belmont Stakes 2014 Video Preview

It is Belmont Stakes week and California Chrome attempts to complete the Triple Crown sweep on Saturday, June 7.

Please watch and listen to the broadcasts below for pedigree profiles, Belmont Stakes history, pace analysis, and California Chrome’s true chances of winning the Belmont Stakes.

Watch Horse Racing Nation’s Belmont Stakes Round Table!

I joined Steve Bortstein on his First Sports radio program on June 5 to discuss the Belmont Stakes – Listen to the Podcast!

My Belmont Stakes Day 2014 full card is available to purchase for $10 at:

The Runaway Horse

Today’s Racing Digest

I’ll return next week with a Belmont Stakes 2014 recap.

Preakness 2014 Recap: Chrome x 2

Preakness 2014 went according to the Hollywood script and California Chrome will try to complete the Triple Crown sweep in the Belmont Stakes on Saturday, June 7.

California Chrome

California Chrome wins Preakness 2014 – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

California Chrome earned his sixth straight win in Baltimore and had to fight harder than many expected. Once again, he fell into a cozy tactical trip, pulled the trigger with a short burst on the far turn, and held off Ride On Curlin to win by a length and a half. The winning BSF came back 105, faster than the Derby (97) but not as fast as his romping San Felipe (107) and Santa Anita Derby (108) wins.

Ride On Curlin made up more than five lengths on Chrome from the Derby to the Preakness but it was not quite enough to get the job done. He was clearly second best and will likely take another shot at the Derby-Preakness hero in the Belmont Stakes. The Preakness was his eighth loss from as many starts at a mile and beyond.

Social Inclusion wasted valuable energy in the post parade and in the starting gate. He did not grab the early lead as expected but made a run at Chrome around the far turn before weakening and just holding off General a Rod for the show. He has a ton of raw talent but does not have the mental capacity to win a classic event at this stage of his promising career. The Belmont Stakes is a possibility.

I have said all along that California Chrome was very good but not spectacular. His final quarter in the Derby was slow and it appeared as though he laid it all on the line in the Preakness. As distances increase, Chrome’s speed figures are shrinking, along with his win margins, and the last eight Belmont Stakes winners did not compete in the Preakness.

As I stated right after the Derby, I do not see a scenario in which the modestly bred, overachieving colt earns a quality speed figure while successful navigating twelve furlongs at Big Sandy. This is not meant to be a knock on Chrome and I hate to come across as Debbie Downer. He is obviously a classy, quality animal, but I have been following horse racing since 1980 and have seen every failed Triple Crown attempt, and there is nothing to suggest that this year will be different.

Based on this year’s events and recent history, all of the evidence points to a fresh horse with stamina and a long-winded pedigree winning Belmont Stakes 2014.

In the days and weeks leading up to Belmont Stakes 2014, I will preview the field and look at the bloodlines of the top contenders. Stay Tuned!

My Belmont Stakes Day 2014 full card analysis will be available to purchase for $10 at:

The Runaway Horse

Today’s Racing Digest

Preakness 2014 Preview

The Preakness 2014 field is set and they will be off and running on Saturday (6:18pm) at Pimlico.

California Chrome shoots for his sixth straight win in Baltimore. He dominated his rivals at Santa Anita earlier this year and did not disappoint as the Kentucky Derby favorite, but the Derby left many unanswered questions.

California Chrome

California Chrome chases the second Triple Crown jewel Saturday – photo by Eclipse Sportswire

The Derby was slow throughout and many top contenders had rough trips. California Chrome is still a big question mark in legitimately run races at classic distances.

The Derby paper pace projected as fast early but that race shape never materialized. California Chrome closely tracked moderate fractions and kicked clear in the lane but did not appear to have much left in the tank late through a pedestrian final quarter mile in :26.21.

Listen to my Kentucky Derby recap – Preakness preview podcast!

The Preakness should be faster early and the overachieving, modestly bred California Chrome might be vulnerable late if he is too close to demanding fractions.

I would not be surprised if California Chrome captured the second jewel of the Triple Crown because many of the top sophomores skipped the Preakness. Regardless of what he does on Saturday, the Belmont Stakes looks to be an impossible distance hurdle for the Art Sherman trainee.

Social Inclusion might be the speed of the speed in the Preakness. He has the most upside and might be the best horse in the race but is very inexperienced with only three lifetime starts. California Chrome, Ring Weekend, Bayern, and Pablo Del Monte are the other speed horses.

Dynamic Impact and General a Rod project decent trips behind the speed, and Ria Antonia, Kid Cruz, and Ride On Curlin will try to get involved late.

Preakness 2014 field with post positions and morning line odds:

preakness 2014 odds

My Preakness Day 2014 full card from Pimlico is available to purchase for $10 at:

The Runaway Horse

Today’s Racing Digest

I’ll return next week with a Preakness 2014 recap and an early Belmont Stakes preview.

COMING SOON: Belmont Stakes Day full card analysis!

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 531 other followers