Archive for March 10th, 2012

San Felipe 2012 Preview: Creative Cause vs. Bodemeister

The Southern California road to Kentucky Derby 2012 heats up on Saturday with the Grade 2 San Felipe and morning line favorite Creative Cause is back around two turns at the Great Race Place.

Creative Cause Kentucky Derby 2012 contender

Is Creative Cause the best out west? - photo by Eclipse Sportswire

#7 Creative Cause (5-2) has fired Trifecta shots in all six career outings and exits a needed show finish in the G2 San Vicente at seven panels. He won the G1 Norfolk at this trip and projects a decent tactical journey under Rosario. He has dropped two straight and three of his last four and has plenty of graded earnings for the first Saturday in May. The obvious contender will not offer much value on top.

#4 Midnight Transfer (6-1) looked great in his last two local sprint wins including a minor stakes tally in the San Pedro on Jan 22. Carla Gaines is a sharp conditioner and he figures to stalk the pace under new rider Victor Espinoza. He is an interesting player if able to navigate two turns.

#3 American Act (8-1) beat Creative Cause and Bodemeister in his last pair and looms a pace factor at the very least under Pedroza. He is bred to go this far and might get brave if able to shake loose early.

#1 Blingo (8-1) is training well for Shirreffs. The lightly raced colt graduated in his turf route bow and ended up a respectable 6th of 13 in the G1 CashCall Futurity on Dec 17. He has not been seen since but is training well for this and can rally for a share under Mike Smith.

#2 Bodemeister (3-1) was clearly second best behind American Act in his local sprint bow and ran off the charts in his local flat mile maiden win Feb 11. He will need to earn better Pace Ratings to make a dent in his first start against winners but the promising son of Empire Maker might be up to the task for Baffert.

I was not impressed with the G2 Robert Lewis so I will toss all four rivals exiting that heat. #5 Groovin’ Solo (20-1) was disqualified for causing #6 Liaison (6-1) to clip heels that day but the latter was going nowhere fast prior to going down. #8 Rousing Sermon (8-1) was placed 3rd but had a flat performance and might be better on synthetic. #10 Empire Way (6-1) rallied for the place and is slowly improving for Harrington. Royal Delta’s late striding brother needs to get away from this speed conducive oval.

#9 Tiz Point (20-1) exits a local turf route entry level wire job. He will need a new rider because Garrett Gomez called off his comeback yesterday after experiencing pain in his heel.

The Plays:

$18 to win #4

$10 to win #3

$1 Trifecta 3-4/7/ALL ($16)

$1 Trifecta 3-4/ALL/1 ($16)

Tampa Bay Derby 2012 Preview: Prospective lands better post

The final graded route prep at Tampa Bay Downs for Kentucky Derby 2012 hopefuls will be run on March 10 and the full field is reduced by one with the defection of Take Charge Indy.

Kentucky Derby 2012 logo

#10 Take Charge Indy (3-1) added a touch of class to this event and figured to make his presence felt throughout but his connections opted to scratch and wait for the G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on March 31.

#1 Prospective (8-1) overcame a wide trip from post 11 to land the place in the G3 Sam Davis here Feb 4. He captured the G3 Grey as a juvenile at Woodbine and began his sophomore campaign with a victory in the seven panel Pasco at Tampa Bay Downs. He dons the hood and should save all of the ground from the cozy rail.

#6 Cozzetti (12-1) has not lived up to expectations for Romans but he continues to train well and barn is known for striking in graded Derby preps (Paddy O’Prado, Shackleford, Dullahan, News Pending, Finnegans Wake).

#7 Battle Hardened (9-2) graduated in the G3 Sam Davis and is on the upswing for Kenneally. A tactical trip is expected.

#9 Spring Hill Farm (5-2) is 2-for-2 in sprints and the promising Pletcher trainee is bred to go this far. He looms a pace factor at the very least under Castellano.

#2 Golden Ticket (12-1) finally graduated in his sixth lifetime start for McPeek. He ran well in both route starts and is getting better but gets tested for class here.

#4 Chief Energy (12-1) makes his first start in more than six months for new trainer James Toner. He traded decisions with My Adonis last year and probably needs the race.

#8 Ravelo’s Boy (12-1) rallied to finish 4th in the Sam Davis at 69-1. The late runner can clunk up for a minor award once again.

#5 Tell All You Know (15-1) is 2-for-2 over the local main track but has never raced around two turns and meets other speed.

#12 Cajun Charlie (15-1) exits three straight Delta Downs wire job tallies vs. Louisiana-bred foes. He meets much better company and must work out a forwardly placed trip from the outside post.

#11 Fox Rules (30-1) has failed to threaten in four stakes starts since graduating in a turf route at Saratoga last summer.

#3 Twin (30-1) is ambitiously spotted after earning his diploma in his 12th career outing at the Gulf.

The Plays:

$24 to win #1

$2 Exacta Box 1-6 ($4)

.50 cent Trifecta 1-6/1-6-7-9/1-2-6-7-8-9 ($12)

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