2011 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Analysis: Can Alpha Step Up?

The winner of Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile will immediately be made the favorite for the 2012 Kentucky Derby.

Unbeaten colt Union Rags or Creative Cause can virtually wrap up the 2-year-old title if they come out on top. They both exit grade one wins and have the pedigrees to be classic players next year.

{Check out my latest 2012 Kentucky Derby Contenders Top 10 list}

Hansen exits back-to-back facile Polytrack wire jobs and is probably the one to catch under Ramon Dominguez. He gets the acid test in his first conventional dirt start.

Take Charge Indy has flashed talent on synthetic and is training well at Churchill Downs. He can spice up the exotics.

Drill traded grade one decisions with Creative Cause in his last two SoCal starts and should have gotten plenty out of the Norfolk for trainer Bob Baffert.

Finally, Alpha looked great in his Saratoga debut and rallied for the place in the G1 Champagne last time. He has plenty of upside and should excel over a route of ground.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile field (in post position order with morning line odds)

1. Take Charge Indy (30-1): Bred for dirt and training well under the Twin Spires.

2. Dullahan (8-1): Broke maiden in G1 Breeders’ Futurity. Better on synthetic/turf?

3. Crusade (12-1): British invader tries dirt route for first time.

4. Drill (8-1): G1 Del Mar Futurity winner was clearly second best in Norfolk.

5. Hansen (10-1): Romped in both Turfway synthetic starts.

6. Prospective (30-1): Improving sort exits solid score in G3 Grey.

7. Creative Cause (7-2): Stomped Drill in G1 Norfolk.

8. Speightscity (30-1): Graduated in style at nine furlongs.

9. Alpha (15-1): G1 Champagne runner-up is bred to run all day.

10. Union Rags (2-1): Overcame trouble to remain undefeated in G1 Champagne.

11. Daddy Long Legs (12-1): Captured 2 of 3 overseas turf starts.

12. Fort Loudon (20-1): Rolled through Florida Stallion Series.

13. Optimizer (15-1): Placed in both graded routes on turf/synthetic.

The Plays:

$20 to win #9

$5 Exacta Box 9-10 ($10)

.50 cent Trifecta 9-10/4-7-9-10/1-4-5-7-9-10 ($12)

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